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First poll: Palin choice has moved undecideds sharply against McCain
Andrew Sullivan's got the report on the latest Rasmussen poll since McCain picked the least qualified candidate for a major ticket in modern times. Turns out those who haven't made their minds up don't like this very much, and think it reflects poorly on McCain's presidential judgement.
Imagine that.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/undecideds-dont.html
"
The headlines
are about the broad polling reaction to Palin. But the most fascinating
part of the first Rasmussen poll on the matter is how those who are
currently undecided in the election feel. They, after all,
are the votes both campaigns are trying to win over with their veep
picks. The key data is in the cross-tabs, which have been missed in
some of the coverage so far.
On the critical question, "With Palin As Vice-Presidential Nominee, Are You More Or Less Likely To Vote For McCain," there's a striking result. Among those already for McCain, 68 percent say it makes them more likely to vote for him; only 6 percent say less; and 23 percent said no impact. Among those already for Obama, Palin made only 9 percent of them more likely to switch to McCain, 59 percent less likely, and 30 percent said it would make no difference.
But among the critical undecideds, the Palin pick made only 6 percent more likely to vote for McCain; and it made 31 percent less likely to vote for him. 49 percent said it would have no impact, and 15 percent remained unsure. More to the point: among undecideds, 59 percent said Palin was unready to be president. Only 6 percent said she was.If the first criterion for any job is whether you're ready for it, this is a pretty major indictment of the first act of McCain's presidential leadership.
One other striking finding. If McCain thought he could present Palin as a moderate, he was wrong. A whopping 69 percent view her as conservative (37 percent as very conservative), and only 13 percent see her as moderate.
From this first snap-shot (and unsettled) impression, Palin has helped McCain among Republicans, left Democrats unfazed, but moved the undecideds against him quite sharply. I totally understand why."
Comments (46)
Energize the base and allow McCain to run to the center I guess.
August 30, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, amazing results from the obviously right favoring Rasmussen people.
My wife was one of those "middle people" and decided to vote for Obama immediately after she heard about McCain's foolish choice. She was leaning towards McCain because she was leary of Obama's "lack of experience" but says this choice shows that McCain doesn't have a lick of sense.
She will not change her mind. I suspect that there will be many people who have been turned off by this ridiculous and insulting choice just like her.
August 31, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile conservative Democrats are still peeling away from Obama. 72% supported him in July, and now it's down to 63%.
But let's get right back to the "pollyanna perspective" on the news!
August 31, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
VERY good news for us. Rec'd.
August 30, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Guess that didn't hold up.
August 30, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rec'd.
don't forget, too, that the radical Right has been using the same arguments and wedge issues for a long time.
People are tired of the tactics, and they're tired of the people behind them.
If this polling trend holds, it will be the first indication how badly McCain/Palin will lose in November.
Spread the word.
August 30, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a Gallup poll - not as detailed and not as promising.
results. http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08.htm
----------------------------------
19% say the choice is Excellent
27% say it's Pretty Good.
19% say it's Fair
18% say it's poor
17% unsure
-----------------------------------------
39% think she's qualified to be serve as president (should the case arise)
33% think she's not qualified
29% unsure
--------------------------------------
"Does having Sarah Palin as his running mate make you more likely to vote for John McCain in November, less likely, or will it not have much effect on your vote?"
18% More likely
11% Less likely
67% Not much effect
3% unsure
-------------------------------------------
The question is a bit vague because it doesn't necessarily mean change from one party to another. Maybe those 18% more likely were already McCain voters and Palin just cinches it for them? Maybe?
August 30, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
You miss a crucial point, though. This post, and the survey cited, distinguishes undecided voters -- and they're the ones to watch.
The poll you cite is much more general, and includes McCain and Obama supporters, whose decision on whom to support was unlikely to be swayed by McCain's veep pick anyway.
August 31, 2008 1:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
It always pisses me off [re Gallup poll] that they never include an option that says "horrible."
I'm one of the people Zogby polls, and I make this complaint to him at least once a month.
"Excellent," "good," "fair," and "poor" provide 3 choices with positive connotations and only one with negative -- and then only slightly negative, certainly not as negative as many of us would like to indicate.
August 31, 2008 3:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Both the 18% and the 11% are ambiguous indicators .Not only does the 18% include some who already intended to vote for McCain and are further confirmed by this choice. It includes some who don't intend to vote for him but have moved in his direction.
With respect to the 11% the mirror image applies.
So the 7% net does not translate directly into a similar % increase in his potential support. The most we can conclude is that it does indicate some increase rather than the opposite.
Joe Lunchpail won't be thrilled.
August 31, 2008 8:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mark my words, my friends. This is a red herring. I bet my bippy that McCain and/or Palin will not be on the GOP ticket for the GE.
August 30, 2008 11:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you MsJoanne. I bet Palin pulls a Harriet Myers and bows (gets shoved) out when the skeletons in her closet come home to roost.
August 31, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I posted this theory last night. This a Harriet Myers trojan horse. Will happen in mid to late October. Whoever takes her place will look like a giant compared to her, will enjoy several weeks of obligatory MSM ass-kissing, and there will be no time for real vetting. And no time to schedule another debate. Palin has a built-in excuse to bow out (didn't realize the commitment level, has a five month old special needs child, etc.).
THAT will be the real game changer. Not this.
August 31, 2008 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think a head-fake like that would hand the election to Obama. Palin energizes the fundicrat base to vote & volunteer - if McCain comes back with Lieberman, Ridge or anyone else who is not rightwing - Dobson and the Cargo Christians will stay home.
Rove & McCain are hoping Palin will bring in Independent women - it doesn't look like that is happening as Palin is just seen as a female Clarence Thomas - an unqualified affirmative action pick. All Obama-Biden have to do it let the women take her down and she'll self destruct.
August 31, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
This would not be a Harriet Miers, IMO.
It would be like Eagleton, OR WORSE.
Eagleton was also an unpopular unknown choice and was finally removed from the ticket a month and a half later even though McGovern really had no reason to do so.
Nixon was going to win in a landslide no matter what, so it didn't really matter what McGovern did.
I suspect that a similar situation exists here, but at least the polls seem to indicate the election is close - though I think they are wrong.
The bottom line is that Obama will win handily because people don't want another complete moron as President.
Even Diebold electronic machine voter fraud will not be enough to counter this wave of voter sentiment, just like it was not enough in 2006 to prevent Dem control of both houses (which was not predicted by too many just before the election).
August 31, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that is the case, and it turns out to be someone else in the end, doesn't this little episode still reflect poorly on McCain? I mean, doesn't it make it look like made an important mistake?
August 31, 2008 1:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thinking the same thing. The damage will have been done. All of this bad press isn't just about Sarah, it's about McCain's incredibly poor judgment and lack of leadership ability. The man can't be trusted to make appropriate decisions.
August 31, 2008 4:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
"So if he is President, is he going to just up and recklessly decide to declare war on Russia based on complete lack of research and then two weeks into it, when things are not progressing, declare that he would like a do-over?"
August 31, 2008 5:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
That would be silly.
No, he'll blame it on his time as a guest of the North Vietnamese, and offer to stay for 50 to 100 years to make up for it.
August 31, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
But McCain had a secret plan for victory in Vietnam which almost worked....he thought it up while a POW...he is THE MAN who knows how to win wars, and frolic with the 'babes'*.
* - (not misogynistic Ripper) quote from the exalted leading American commentator Rush Limbaugh
August 31, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
The OP relies on a poll that used a tiny sample, that is, one day of polling, before most Americans even learned the basics about Palin.
Not only did you ignore the fact that the usually Gallup sample has to be divided by three because it is a 3 day rolling poll. And then, you have to figure out what is the 5-10% of that tiny sample, since that is usually the number of undecided voters.
The lack of logic and rush to judgment here is appalling. it takes SEVERAL DAYS to find out the effect of an event in the race.
August 30, 2008 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
He Moron with the pompous name of truthseeker:
The OP posted the result from Gallup. He made no rush to judgment. He just posted what Gallup posted.
You are a pretentious imbecile!
August 30, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh if I could only Recommend a comment!
Thanks, Liam!!
August 31, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Two things...
One, it was a Rasmussen poll, not excactly a friend of Obama and the Democrats.
Two, I posted it because it includes cross-tabs and looks at how undecided voters viewed the Palin decision. It's a look at how undecideds feel about McCain's leadership and decision-making abilities. And that's what the discussion is really about.
August 31, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here is Zogby's take on it:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html
August 30, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish people would stop quoting Zogby polls, they have been the most unreliable of all the national pollsters.
August 31, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, fivethirtyeight.com gives Zogby (Not interactive, "just Zogby") a better rating than Gallup in his analysis (based on the primaries).
Rasmussen, however, is 3rd from the top.
August 31, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that is the case, and it turns out to be someone else in the end, doesn't this little episode still reflect poorly on McCain? I mean, doesn't it make it look like made an important mistake?
August 31, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
If that is the case, and it turns out to be someone else in the end, doesn't this little episode still reflect poorly on McCain? I mean, doesn't it make it look like made an important mistake?
August 31, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bait and switch
August 31, 2008 2:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen found the immediate reaction to Palin was far more favorable than immediate reaction to the Biden pick last week.
Palin the gun-toting biker chick milf is far more appealing than Joe Biden, the snarky, plagiarizing charter member of the Hair Club For Men who got zero delegates in his two presidential runs.
4 of our last 5 Presidents were governors with no foreign policy experience so give the experience argument a rest.
August 31, 2008 2:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I'd be tempted to give it a rest if McCain were, say, 62 instead of 72 and she at least had a thought about foreign affairs.
Anyway, the dirt and the holiday aren't over yet...
August 31, 2008 4:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Rasmussen found the immediate reaction to Palin was far more favorable than immediate reaction to the Biden pick last week."
As would be in any case where you compare someone who has been known for quite a while and someone who has only been seen in a controlled setting designed to make him or her look good.
This is as positive a view people will have of her as it will get.
My guess? irrelevant in the long run.
August 31, 2008 3:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I never heard of the lady governor of Alaska until just the other day. It then took me about fifteen minutes of browsing on the Internet to discover that any more browsing on the Internet would reveal little more than the practically nothing anyone could ever know about her no matter how hard they tried.
I think the Obama campaign has it right in just ignoring the incredible lightness of McBush's latest lechery and campaigning instead against the tawdry twins Panama John and Deputy Dubya. One cannot attack a complete non-entity without making it look like something that might actually exist. And after all, the rabid right-wing base of the Republican Party does believe that a woman belongs in the home, barefoot and pregnant with her tenth retarded child. Therefore, the Democratic Party ticket should just assume that Alaska's lady governor will soon wind up back in the wood-stove kitchen where she belongs anyway. So why bother wasting time and money dignifying her shallow "qualifications" with unnecesaary attention?
In any event, I seriously doubt that old shoot-from-the-lip McBush will ever take the time to consult little-Ms-what's-her-name before he impulsively blows his stack or forgets where he misplaced Holy Joe Lieberman.
What an unmitigated farce.
August 31, 2008 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've just heard the 'Trojan horse' theory this morning, and then read a couple of posts here about the idea that Palin is really a stalking horse for the "real" candidate for VP sometime in October. Interesting, but I don't buy it.
I don't believe the GOP is playing from strength in any arena this year, and this theory may be giving McCain and his handlers way too much credit.
I think any of the other known candidates is weak on several fronts, which is why they weren't picked.
The Republicans may be devious, vicious and ruthless, but they're anything but competent and error-free. So, again, let's not give them too much credit, which I fear this theory does do. Let's focus on what the real story is, which is McCain's obvious unfitness for the office on temperament and judgment.
That's not to say that Palin won't withdraw, of course, mainly because she's not really qualified to be president and may not stand up to the vetting process she'll now face. Two gaffes in a row and she's likely to fall. But it won't be because they've got someone better waiting in the wings. They don't. The Republicans are a spent force, a twisted and deformed and contracting party of fanatics. Dangerous still? Yes, undoubtedly. But hardly all-powerful. Think Pickett at Gettysburg, not Patton ripping through Germany.
If she withdraws, the message that most undecideds will draw from this is that McCain and the GOP can't be trusted any longer. They already believe this, by and large, and such a cluster-fuck as having your VP candidate quit to "spend more time with her family" will be nothing short of disastrous.
McCain on Fox this morning looked peevish, unhappy and defensive. That cork's gonna pop one of these days, and he looks like he knows that he's about to lead Pickett's Charge.
August 31, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've just heard the 'Trojan horse' theory this morning, and then read a couple of posts here about the idea that Palin is really a stalking horse for the "real" candidate for VP sometime in October. Interesting, but I don't buy it.
I don't believe the GOP is playing from strength in any arena this year, and this theory may be giving McCain and his handlers way too much credit.
I think any of the other known candidates is weak on several fronts, which is why they weren't picked.
The Republicans may be devious, vicious and ruthless, but they're anything but competent and error-free. So, again, let's not give them too much credit, which I fear this theory does do. Let's focus on what the real story is, which is McCain's obvious unfitness for the office on temperament and judgment.
That's not to say that Palin won't withdraw, of course, mainly because she's not really qualified to be president and may not stand up to the vetting process she'll now face. Two gaffes in a row and she's likely to fall. But it won't be because they've got someone better waiting in the wings. They don't. The Republicans are a spent force, a twisted and deformed and contracting party of fanatics. Dangerous still? Yes, undoubtedly. But hardly all-powerful. Think Pickett at Gettysburg, not Patton ripping through Germany.
If she withdraws, the message that most undecideds will draw from this is that McCain and the GOP can't be trusted any longer. They already believe this, by and large, and such a cluster-fuck as having your VP candidate quit to "spend more time with her family" will be nothing short of disastrous.
McCain on Fox this morning looked peevish, unhappy and defensive. That cork's gonna pop one of these days, and he looks like he knows that he's about to lead Pickett's Charge.
August 31, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry about the double. I got a server error the first time (server's in Australia? Really? Ain't the Interwebs amazin'?) and resubmitted, thinking the first didn't go through.
August 31, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Pickett". Nice.
As for submitting at TPM right now while they work out the kinks, just submit and if it doesn't appear to go thru/get server message/etc. just close the window and go back to the site and thread. Sorry if this is redundant...
August 31, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a Democrat opposed to McCain's policies and distrustful of his judgement, I think Sarah Palin was a great choice . . . for the Democrats.
Anyone who had any doubts about McCain's judgement should question no longer. His judgement is poor. Anyone who had any doubts about McCain's temperament should question no more. He is a gambler and a risk-taker.
Hillary Clinton is a competent, experienced female whose policies I support. The insinuation that I would vote for the Republican ticket because one of the candidates possesses ovaries is the supreme insult.
The Republicans are distressed because Hurricane Gustav is preempting the news cycle; on the contrary, it may be that the less the public sees the better off they will be.
August 31, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those internet tubes reach Australia!?! Who knew the google was so powerful.
August 31, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Turns out you have to click the check box "In Reply". Guess I have more in common with Ted Stevens than I thought.
August 31, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, besides the undecideds, there is also some reaction from Republicans. I got an email from a friend who is a republican from Alaska (she sent it to her whole mail list)that said in part:
"...It was announced today that McCain has picked the current governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin.
If you are supportive of McCain, I urge you to look into Palin's past. I thought the announcement was a joke. She is a former "Miss Wasilla" who is currently under an ethics investigation, has almost no political background, has abused her power and caused quite a recent mess in Alaska.
I've never been more shocked to read a news article and want everyone I know to truly take a look at who Sarah Palin is, and what she has done. This person could end up leading our country."
Looks like this time lots of voters are switching teams or generally not doing the expected thing. And the MSM doesn't have a clue.
August 31, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Second Ras poll:
There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.
Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.
There has been little change in perceptions of Obama since his Thursday night speech and the Palin announcement (see trends and other recent demographic observations).
Palin herself made a good first impression and is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%. While Palin has made a good first impression, the more significant numbers will come a week from now after the nation has a chance to learn more about her.
August 31, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, we should all be worried about the evangelical vote because they showed themselves to be such good judges of character last time.
Enough of this BS. This is the third day of Palin hysteria.
ENOUGH!
August 31, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
To Steevo.
I think I just saw a post of yours that said you're a doctor. Have you entertained the thought that the newborn is Palin's grandson?
I caught a blog that her daughter was out of school for five months because of mono. She seems to have had an accident while so incapacitated. That would also explain the quick recovery and expose the whole damn travel leaking lie.
BTW That's a fine double gun. Cheney'd love it.
August 31, 2008 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
To Steevo.
I think I just saw a post of yours that said you're a doctor. Have you entertained the thought that the newborn is Palin's grandson?
I caught a blog that her daughter was out of school for five months because of mono. She seems to have had an accident while so incapacitated. That would also explain the quick recovery and expose the whole damn travel leaking lie.
BTW That's a fine double gun. Cheney'd love it.
August 31, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
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