Reader Posts

« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »

Bayh Curious

Indiana-based blogger Bil Browning has a post upon on his blog Bilerico Project-Indiana (cross-posted at Huffington Post) (links below) predicting that Obama will name Evan Bayh as his running mate on a campaign stop in Elkhart, IN on Wednesday.  His basis for the prediction runs from rather weak inferences -- such as that Obama has an unusual amount of open time on his public schedule for Wednesday's visit, and that a later announcement would lose play to the Olympics -- to potentially more solid, such as converstations from unnamed campaign sources.  Updates to Browning's post confirm that Bayh will be the choice, but claim the announcement will be later in August, just before the convention.  Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post claims that Bayh is in front of the pack of candidates, and tags him with the lukewarm adjective "safe."

Bayh seems to to me a solid, if not overly exciting choice.  Popular in one of the states that McCain must win, Bayh  would be a staid and mainstream choice.  He is not a thrilling speaker, but Obama doesn't need more excitement.  Can claim foreign policy experience.  May help in Michigan and Ohio.  Was an energetic Hillary supporter.

But I don't know him well; I'm interested in evaluations of Bayh as a politician, anecdotes, descriptions of his record, assessments of the political wisdom of the potential choice. 

Browning Post on Bilerico:  http://indiana.bilerico.com/

Browning Cross-Post on HP:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bil-browning/obama-will-name-bayh-his_b_116752.html

Cillizza:  http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/07/veepstakes_line_its_now_or_nev.html


Comments (50)

Rec'd for the title pun, though I suspect these rumors might be a red herring.

After reading the Browning piece, I take back my reflexive skepticism. There are some substantive pieces of evidence there. Pretty interesting.

Bayh has been running for President his whole life, so he's squaky clean and safe in a no surprises sort of way. He's a Clinton golden boy, had the keynote address in 1996 convention I believe and Clinton once opined that one day he hoped he could vote for Bayh for President.

He was almost surely Hillary's VP choice had she won the primary. He probably didn't run himself because Hillary was running. Clintons can't torpedo Obama as easily with Bayh on the ticket because given how be backed her so strongly and probably put off running himself to make room for her, it would really bite them.

He's a former two-term Governor so that Executive experience will be beneficial, and has solid Senate committee memberships.

This is a "I want to win the election" pick if there ever was one.

Commonly cited criticisms seem to include: 1. unintelligent (allegedly), 2. DLC-er (at least at one point), 3. enthusiastic supporter of Iraq invasion, 4. not clear he would be a tough attack dog.

Here's a post with a decent youtube clip where he tries to showcase his attack skills.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/08/evan-bayh-surprises.php

I get a strong Dan Quayle vibe off Bayh. But he really attacks the political geography with Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

All that Obama would need him for is one debate. And if McCain picks Romney then they can debate who has the nicer hair.

I personally don't like the pick, but I can understand it politically.

I'm a Clinton Girl and still unenthusiastic about Bayh. Bayh's not bad - just not exciting or real to me and I totally agree with the Quaylish vibe. I'm still hoping for Clinton (keep hope alive!), Clark or Biden in that order. As long as we're not talking about Kaine anymore, I feel better though.

I'm hoping for Clark, personally. Obama's kicking McCain's ass on the economy, so go with the 4-star general.

Bayh was also under consideration for Gore and Kerry. Gore went anti-Clinton with Lieberman, and Kerry picked the candidate with the better hair.

I was really hoping for Biden, but I think this is the pick.

I sorta was too, but I was always afraid that Biden would go too crazy and say something dumb. He also brings in no new states and puts a damper on Obama's "change" theme and is not an outsider by any means.

With that said, he's still a brilliant guy. Make him Secretary of State or something.

This is eccentric, but I always feared Quayle -- boyish, affable exterior, hard right-wing filling. Anti-intellectual in the way that has proved very successful for Rs. For some reason the goofy and stupid tag stuck to him in a way it hasn't to others no less goofy or stupid.

I'd kind of prefer not to lose a Senate seat without very good reason. IN has a Republican governor and winning back the seat would seem far from a lock.

That's the most compelling objection I've heard. I actually googled the Indiana Constitution to try to figure out the relevant law. It's a bit opaque, but it appears to me that the governor appoints a replacement in case of vacancy, but only until an election can be held. There appears not to be any requirement (as there is in a few states) that the pro tem. replacement belong to the same party as the senator who vacated the seat.

I'd kind of prefer not to lose a Senate seat without very good reason. IN has a Republican governor and winning back the seat would seem far from a lock.

That was on my mind too. I live next door to Indiana (Illinois) and have relatives there. Outside the metro areas it is a very conservative state. Even though I'm 50 miles away, I can hear the bibles thumping.

I'd trade one senate seat if it meant winning the Presidency. I don't think there is going to be very many bills/policy that Obama tries to force through with filibuster proof necessity.

Of course considering the Dems have a one-seat Senate advantage, and that includes the worm, I'd like to have a buffer zone.

Warner will win his seat, to that will be a net zero. What other senate gains are possible? Likely?

Our best pickup chances appear to be in

Alaska, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Colorado. I'd say we have very good odds of getting at least three of those five. We could do quite a bit better.

If you're confident about VA (Warner), I'd add that we can also be pretty confident about Alaska (Begich), since Stevens has now been indicted.

In addition to VA, Ds should pick up NM (Udall), and have very good prospects in NH (Shaheen), CO (other Udall), AK (Begich). Other possibilities include MN, NC, KY.

Oregon is also a good possibility. Dead heat in July.

Mark Warner remains the only serious VP prospect who shares Obama's vision.

Yes we all know he has been effective in his Senate race. Here he is campaigning in Virginia.

http://www.markwarner2008.com/blog

Or look at it another way: Warner has been campaigning without interference as Obama's VP in Virginia for the past three months. In doing so, he's basically buttoning down for Obama what he can of South West Virginia.

(Every now and then I point to new hints that it's going to be Warner. And since we're in the weak inferences thread, please note the following: Warner's blog has been inactive for over a week and his Summer interns are being released.)


When the DNC buys obamabayh08.com, it's not what I'd call a *really* weak inference. Here, try it for yourself:

http://obamabayh08.com

and compare

http://obamawarner08.com

Interesting, huh?

I did, and I see you point. I appreciate you bringing it up.

I suppose I am holding on to the notion that Obama's game is Marinas Trench deep.

Surely Obama can't talk about vision and bayh in the same sentence.

If you're truly holding out for Mark Warner, you're going to be sorely, sorely disappointed. Though We've previously discussed this. Warner has about a .00001% chance of being chosen

Great idea check the domains, Alex. I'd say that's an interesting gauge. I did see that there are a few other domains that appear to have been registered but I think those are just squatters trying to make a few bucks off selling the domain back to the Obama campaign.

Opening ceremonies are on Friday, so naming Sen. Bayh on Wednesday would give him only a two day story at most.

The original source for this post is walking back a bit on the story now as well.

I said in a thread about Kaine that his name could have been "leaked" as a thank you of sorts by the Obama campaign for opening their lives up for the intense vetting and not getting chosen. This coverage gives Kaine before and Bayh now certain status and rub for being talked about at a legit possibility and finalist.

All these men and women were told to keep their mouths shut and did so, and they probably deserve something for the hassle.

I don't think Olympics will have any bearing on the timing of Obama's choice.

Obama will announce his choice when he is ready.

And if that means NBC having to interrupt what is sure to be some highly annoying Bob Costas narrated sentimental story about how a certain US athlete darns their own socks as opposed to live coverage of a one sided water polo match between australia and the central african republic, they will.

Infact, Obama may just as well time his announcement to take place minutes before the start of what is likely to be a heavily subscribed live swimming or track event involving a US Gold Medal hopeful. The whole nation is watching 'x' runner or swimmer stretching 20 minutes before his or her race, while Bob Costas goes on and on about they how learned to darn their own socks and...BOOM....we interrupt this exclusive NBC telecast to go to Richmond, Virginia, where Barack Obama is holding a press conference to introduce his running mate. BOOM

Of course Obama considers the media environment for the release. I find it very implausible that he would interrupt anything (except a McCain speech) for the announcement. Not least because it would probably create a backlash ("why is Obama stealing X's thunder?")

I found the argument convincing until I got to the updates about numerous people saying Obama will announce the last week before the convention. Which, as we all know, Obama said he wanted to take a week off the trail in August. If he announces right before the last week leading up to the convention, his VP nominee will be able to campaign in his place and introduce himself to voters.

So, we'll see.

Obama naming his choice during the Olympics is risky as he'll have to share the coverage, and if the proverbial shit is hitting the fan in China, there could be no room for political coverage.

I think Bayh could be a smart pick, because if you don't pick a Clintonite, there is a real possibility they look towards 2012 and pull shenanigans like Bill currently is.

The inside Clintonite could also contribute to preparing the track for a 2012 Hilliary run.

But if Obama thinks he handle it, then more power to him.

But I fear any association with the Clintons. I fear for Barack. They are toxic and the residues could influence all those in crucial swing states who are voting for Obama because he isn't Clinton.

Obama needs to keep away from them.

By inside info do you mean sabotage his own interests now and lose to set up Clinton running in 2012, or becoming VP and still working to sabotage the Obama White House to the point Hillary could somehow challenge Obama in a primary in 2012?

A Bayh VP has to be Clinton quid pro quo. There is no other way to explain it.

I believe Obama has every reason not to trust Hilliary. I believe Obama is still fighting on two fronts.

The latest sniping came from Howard Wolfson a few days ago.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/01/1240095.aspx

Clinton confidante Howard Wolfson seemed to back up Schmidt's argument. "I think the McCain camp watched our primary on the Democratic side very carefully and they know that any accusation of racial divisiveness can be very, very harmful for a candidate's prospects, Wolfson said on Fox News Thursday, adding that the allegations against Clinton were unfair. They heard something that Senator Obama said and they felt
they had to respond quickly to make sure that nobody got the impression that they were engaged in those kind of racial politics."

Evan Bayh remains one of Clinton's insiders. Moreover, he has been the Mr. Magoo of our times. When a US helicopter gets blown out of the sky in Iraq with double digit KIAs in September and October, Obama can't be standing next to this guy talking about vision and Iraq.

If Obama believes he is nimble and strong enough to win and then manage effectively with Sen. Magoo, then more power to him. I do not doubt that has the backbone and force of personality to make Bayh do what he is told. But let's also remember, Obama is inheriting a catastrophe. The prevailing indices will be against him and there will soon be mumblings of "if only" and "will she" come the Spring of 2009.

Obama's needs someone who not only shares his vision, but someone who can be effective helping to regenerate and retool the economy and most of all who can be trusted. Sen Magoo of Indiana doesn't fit the criteria.

It's McCain who needs a gambit to win, e.g. choosing a woman if Obama chooses a man. Obama choosing Bayh would be both an Indiana gambit and an arrangement with Clinton. Obama is in a strong position and doesn't need to resort to such desperation. Obama is approaching this decision from a position of strength. Obama's choice will serve to reinforce this. Choosing Bayh does the opposite.

Well, I have to say, after taking a quick look at Bayh over at OnTheIssues, I really don't have many criticisms.

On social issues, my main beef is with abortion, but I don't think it's a huge issue. His main problem with the far-left would come because of his votes on "partial-birth" abortions. Other than that, he's been pretty pro-choice.

The fact that he's been able to get elected as often as he has, and as consistently as he has, in such a deep-red state, with his liberal record (and don't kid yourself people, his record is decently liberal) is quite impressive.

Well, if Obama does announce that Bayh is his running mate, I'm on board.

When I heard a few weeks ago that Obama said that geography would not dictate his Veep choice, I felt it had to be Evan Bayh.
The Dan Quayle comparison is ludicrous.
Evan Bayh is as much Dan Quayle, as I am Jesus Christ.
Excellent choice by Obama if it's Evan Bayh.

avatar

Evan Bayh is less a Dan Quayle and more an Al Gore. --- In fact, very much an Al Gore type pick ... adjoining state, slightly wooden but attractive, son of an even more well-known (in his day)and very respected political father (Birch Bayh still brings a smile and wish for the "good old days" by members of my generation .... you know, the folks who by and large are supporting McCain .. and had strong credentials in women's issues, Title IX and ERA).

Birch Bayh was Senator from 1963 to 1981, at which time he was defeated by ..... Dan Qayle! In fact, I believe that was why Quayle was seen as such an up-and-comer, the fact that he defeated Birch Bayh.

It would not be a bad pick - maybe a good one. I've always gotten the impression of integrity from him -- and definitely civility, even during the recent primary when he was supporting Clinton. The only question I've heard raised is that his wife may have positions on some corporate boards that might be questioned. I doubt they would cause much trouble since Bayh has always been careful of his political future.

If Wednesday comes and goes without an announcement, it may be as Jonze suggest: granting him a respectful nod and favorable moment in the spotlight. I'm not yet - quite - giving up my serious, long-held hope that it's going to be Joe Biden. But Bayh would be an solid, acceptable choice. (And if it would muffle the Clintons' guns, especially Bill's!!, a bit, then maybe the very best choice.)

I'm torn. The Wed event is apparently in a HS gym, which would be strange for a veep announcement.

On the other hand, I'm struck by the fact that obamabayh08.com now points to the Democratic party. If that's a smokescreen, they've gone to some trouble to lay it down . . .

Is it really? That's no place to make a VP announcement. ...That gives me even more doubts.

http://obamakaine08.com/

It's just a big blank screen with "ObamaKaine08.com" in big blue letters and an email link for information. But the site is bought and owned by somebody. So...

We'll see?

It would sorta be a folksy place to announce it though - especially if it's Bayh's former high school. And it would get tons of press coverage and counteract the celebrity/big crowd meme the GOP is trying to make stick.

The ObamaBayh08.com domain was purchased by a guy in
Allston, Massachusets named Joe Chan who lists his address as an apartment and used a Yahoo email address for this domain. At least at this point, I'll assume that Joe is just a squatter looking to get a little cash of the Obama campaign if Bayh is the choice. Obviously he could be someone in the campaign somewhere but I wouldn't read too much into the domain thing for now.

Thanks for finding this. It definitely sheds light on the whole issue.

Though I still think Bayh might be the nominee, even if the announcement isn't Wednesday.

Excellent. A classic, old school LA squatter.

Bayh is a cautious choice that I believe would be a mistake for several reasons. (1) It does not assuage the feelings of many HRC supporters; (2) It WILL cost the Dems a Senate seat; (3) It does not address the concerns of ethnic Catholic voters in the Northeast who may be Democrats but are not thrilled with BO. I have been totally in the tank for BO since February but I still would like to see him take Hillary for VP. She has ardent supporters who will be highly motivated, and she has fire in her belly. 36 million people have voted for the two of them once this year and will do so again. That gets us about 60% of the way to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Bayh leaves us well short of that.

1) The feelings of the majority of Hillary Supporters has already be assuaged. I think it's a little ignorant to even purport a VP choice as being able to assuage those feelings, if they still exist. And for those who say they still exist strongly, and strongly enough to vote against Obama if he chooses someone other than Hillary, I bet they were never Democratic voters to begin with.

2) Taking Hillary as VP could also cost a Senate seat, and Hillary will be MUCH more useful in the senate than as VP, which, as we know, isn't worth a bucket of warm piss.

3) I doubt that's a hugely worrying demographic, but I'm too lazy to explain all the numerous reasons why taking Bayh would a) not destroy Obama's chances with them, and b) why they wouldn't tip the election if McCain were to edge out Obama in the group.

There are arguments against Bayh, but yours are just way too weak for me to accept them as serious points of contention.

avatar

Hillary is not possible .... because of Bill. It's just that simple. He won't be vetted; if he allowed it there would be too much disqualifying stuff uncovered; he won't control himself; he won't behave; and he would not let Obama govern without everyone being aware of "The Shadow" lurking around the halls of the White House.

Few were more opposed to Clinton during the primaries than I, but if she wanted the job and said that she would cooperate with Obama, I'd accept her in a heartbeat ..... but not with Bill in tow.

Agree about the need for "fire in the belly" however ..... and can't imagine a better candidate than Joe Biden.

He is glowingly, charmingly human, can be a tremendously effective but not uncivil fighter, and, simply by his presence, would rob McCain's years of experience, bi-partisan achievement and long-standing respect of a great deal of its luster.

Those things ARE assets, but McCain isn't the only one who has them. With Obama/Biden you get the new generation/change leader who has total access to all the important lessons learned over a career that's been even longer and more successful than McCain's.

I know he's a long-shot, but I really want Schweitzer. He would be great. Very popular Governor from Montana, which has been trending toward Obama, next door to North Dakota, another one trending for Obama. But a very popular Democratic Governor in a deep red midwestern state. His career before Governor was as an agricultural scientist. He's extremely savvy on energy policy, ecology and the environment. Not to mention he's fluent in Arabic.

The Montana governor is more appealing that Bayh, Biden, Kaine or Sebelius. And it would show Obama's reach in a dramatic way. I still prefer Mark Warner, but this choice would agree with me.

Biden would be fine with me, for reasons you spell out, and I imagine DE would replace him with a Dem. I suppose the standard downside with him are gaffe-proneness, and coming from a tiny state in one of Obama's strongest regions. But I think the two of them would constitute a formidable charm and debate machine.

Biden's proneness to gaffes scares me a little. If he was in the head seat, not so much, but as a VP? Yeah, it's a little scary. The one place Biden's mouth would have an advantage would be during debates, and unfortunately, there's only one VP debate, so...

Neil Kinnock. Bottom of his class (nearly) in law school, I think at Syracuse. Prone to popping off. Past health issues. No to Biden.

With Obama blasting McCain's being in Washington for 26 years as being part of the problem, wouldn't that signal he's probably not picking Biden? Because Biden has been in there 35 years...

I was hoping for Biden, but Obama's latest salvo at John McCain might kill any chance of Biden getting selected.

Especially since given McCain's latest ad of "Washington is broken, and Mr. Maverick is here to save it" I assume Barack and the Obama camp will hit back even harder on this issue.

I, too, could support Sen. Clinton for VP, but Bill Clinton makes it an unworkable possibility. Bill has his super secret library donor list, his middle eastern junkets and his Presidential pardons that would hang over the campaign. The election would be all about the Clinton years, Obama and policy/issues would become an afterthought.

I don't think there is any chance an Obama/Clinton ticket could win. I think the million or so Hillary holdouts might come aboard, but there would be a chilling effect to the Obama message and her addition to the ticket would really energize the GOP base and give them a rallying cry, so the net effect would probably be a huge negative for the Democratic chances.

This business of blaming Bill for not wanting Hilliary Clinton doesn't agree with me. Yes, Bill Clinton has his issues now. But tens of millions of voters have their issues with Hilliary Clinton also. Obama won in many states because he wasn't a Clinton. Eyan Bayh is a Clinton acolyte. The Bayh rumors are beginning to ebb away now. Good. Another smokescreen. Another week of cloudiness in the McCain.

Bring on Obama's grandmother in Hawaii.

And then just when the Olympics are reaching a climax...we interrupt this telecast for a special NBC News Newsflash. Here's Andrea Mitchell in Roanoke, Virginia.

Post a Comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Book Club Calendar

Coming Soon



Nov. 30-Dec. 4



January 12-16



« Book Club ArchiveFull calendar »

Recent Reader Posts

All Reader Posts »





Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address