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Awesome poll interp site
I was going to post this in response to Desidero on a different thread, but figured I could just share w/ the whole class!
There's a freaky blog up by Nate Silver (for baseball nuts he's the one with the PECOTA algorithm that predicts player and team performance with scary accuracy). Silver's algorithm also predicted primary results down to the percentage split. Anyway, it seems that polls are good predictors when you pull vast quantities of data from the right responses, combine them with demographic data and voting patterns from past elections and monitor them over the long term - very cool!
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Comments (3)
Although I've been following this blog for awhile, I hadn't really looked at the reader comments before - I just noticed there are posts by the Grand Panjandrum. In the event that's the same person who posts here at TPM, then it's likely this link has been shared before. If that's the case...sorry about the repeat info. I haven't been too active on TPM lately...my bad :)
August 25, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
No problem, everyone ignored it the first time and just persisted with "polls don't matter".
August 25, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you on "polls don't matter." I just think it's cool that he's been so accurate. I'm kind of a math junkie with absolutely no ability to do math, so I appreciate when others do it well.
August 25, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
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