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All In - A last-minute look at VP picks
You should be getting your text message any day now. As such, many people have been making their last, best guesses as to who will be Barack Obama's running mate -- trying to figure out exactly what the campaign's strategy will be, since the VP pick gives an idea of what they think their own strengths and weaknesses are. The betting markets say Bayh, Biden and Kaine are the likeliest. Here are my guesses:
1. Gen. Wesley Clark -- a southern guy and Clinton ally, he has more military cred than McCain, and he was against the war from the beginning.
2. Sen. Joe Biden -- he's smart, knows foreign policy, would make a good "attack dog" veep; there seems to be a growing consensus that he's the likeliest pick.
3. Gov. Brian Schweitzer -- he has been my favorite dark horse for the last few months. I have this nagging suspicion that Obama might pull him out of the hat. He's affable, avuncular, articulate, progressive; hails from a new, albeit small, swing state (Montana); and he gels with this whole "new politics" vibe of Obama. You can see that rhetoric in full display in this video. I would love to see this guy get it, but the foreign policy expertise is lacking.
4. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius -- people seem to think she would make a great candidate, although I'm not sure why. Sebelius has done good work as the progressive governor of a very conservative state (Kansas), but she seems a bit stiff and does not seem to help on the variables of foreign policy, winning a swing state, etc. If Kos and Nate Silver think she would be a good pick, though, there must be something to it. (That being said, my friend Antonio noted that Obama-Sebelius sounds like a character from Star Wars.)
5. Sen. Hillary Clinton -- as hard as it would be to do this now, picking her might completely nuke McCain out of consideration by rallying the discontented in Ohio, Florida, etc.
Comments (40)
I'll say Biden will be named tomorrow. Official unveiling will be Tuesday.
McCain Camp will immediately release all of their oppo to the MSM. They have files on all of them, complete with attack campaigns ready to roll out.
It might be better to wait until the convention so the unveiling can be done under largely positive coverage. If you release it now whomever the choice is will spend the week defending themselves against all GOP charges. Announce it the first day of the convention, and you get 4 days of positive coverage and can basically ignore the GOP attacks. After the convention, the GOP will be rolling out their own VP so won't have the time to attack/smear.
Also if Obama waits until the convention the GOP will have little time for smear commercials before they have to start doing so on the limited GE dime rather than the primary war chest they have to burn through by Sept 5th.
August 17, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't believe they will release the oppo all at once to the MSM. Their strategy in every election since god knows when has been drip drip drip. It will be a steady layering of dirt, maybe followed by some SwiftBoat-type finale.
As for who the VP will be, I'm personally so lost now in this game, I start to wonder if it's still possible to prevent a rather large contingent from deflating, regardless of who it is.
August 17, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm 180 from where I was a month ago and would like to see Hillary if it would really deliver FL and OH. Plus, Barack needs an attack dog, and Hillary's the best there is.
August 17, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't you think it's a done deal by now and it's just not announced yet? Or do you think it's really possible it's a last minute decision?
August 17, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
It it hasn't been made yet, I'd be worried. I think both candidates know who their picks are. Well actually McCain probably has a couple of choices depending on who Obama picks.
August 17, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I always thought he probably made up his mind long ago and the veepstakes was an elaborate pantomime. Hard to tell now.... It'll say a lot about the psychology of the campaign, whether Obama makes a last-minute choice to address perceived weaknesses, or an out-of-the-box pick, the sort that was probably made long ago on the basis of a larger vision
August 17, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary would be strongly considered if Bill wasn't such an issue. I mean Fmr. President Clinton has his Middle East Business dealings, the secretive Clinton Library donor list that he refuses to reveal and his presidential pardons, as well as bringing up the whole infidelity issue that the GOP would beat into the ground.
August 17, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even if he wanted to pick Hillary at this point, doing so would make him look like a little desperate after all we've been through, don't you think??
August 17, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weirdly, though, Barack has put no infrastructure into Arkansas. See
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/us/politics/16arkansas.html
Maybe indicates there will be a favorite son (daughter) from there.
August 17, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it so hard to believe. If he really plans to pick her, why not announce it back in June and avoid the nerves, PUMA craziness and all that???
August 17, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Hillary would be strongly considered if Bill wasn't such an issue."
This is the main problem. Not HRC but WJC. He'd be impossible to deal with as Co-VP (and wannabe Co-President)
August 17, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say Hillary and Clark are gone off the list now, there is no way. As for the rest, I'm not sure anymore who can bring him what, electorally speaking... I'd say he needs to get Ohio, where McCain seems to have pulled even now.
August 17, 2008 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is no way it can be Hilary. it would be the end of his candidacy...
August 17, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's going to be Biden. Though my top choice is still Schweitzer...
I still think Obama should be focusing on domestic, not foreign, issues. Picking Biden solidifies the focus on foreign policy.
August 17, 2008 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
To me, the great dilemma is that Obama is most passionate and confident when talking about foreign policy issues, and seems less assured in tackling the economic stuff; yet the conventional wisdom is that he lacks foreign policy chops and needs to add a "serious" person like Bayh, Biden, Clark or Reed. We need a veep who can make an aggressive case on the economy, while placating the people who keep sounding the alarm about foreign policy. Still not sure who that person would be, but it remains true that Obama himself has a lot of work of his own to do to shore up these weaknesses....
August 17, 2008 11:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is that the economy is such a huge issue that neither candidate looks that great when speaking about it. No solution is a perfect one, and every solution can come under huge attack because so much scrutiny is given.
My problem is that I don't think this election will be won based on foreign policy and national security. That was 2004. This election is about the economy, and the person with the best "solutions" is going to come out on top.
The best person Obama can pick is someone who can successfully advise him on economic issues.
Of course, I think someone like Biden would be great for a number of other reasons, and believe me, I would not contest or be upset with Biden as VP. I just don't know if focusing on foreign policy is the right way to go...
August 17, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Schweitzer, Warner and Kaine are my top 3.
August 17, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
There probably will be no way to know, but I've had it in my head that shortly after he cinched, if not before, he knew who he **wanted** as VP -- but either gave the committee total free rein to see who they came up with or said "I want X. Now convince he/she won't do or that someone else would be better." In ways, Obama is such a "gut instinct" person (balanced by serious pragmatism) that it's hard to imagine he didn't have an instictive choice. -- Would be interesting to know, but I doubt if we ever will.
August 17, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
DWS.
But if not her, then Biden is the best of the second string.
I am assuming Hillary is not in contention.
August 17, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm gonna keep standing with you on DWS, just because I think it would be a great and exciting ticket. (And she seems remarkably clean, too.) I do think he might go with someone unexpected, otherwise he wouldn't be trying to boost anticipation with the email/text thing. That could result in a number of people, though . . .
August 17, 2008 11:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll hope that DWS isn't Debbie Wasserman-Shultz.
Aside from my personal distate for the lady, the campaign wouldn't be able to print normal campaign apparel, as DWS' last name would probably raise printing costs 60%. :-)
August 18, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanks bdh! If its not this year, then certainly later.
August 18, 2008 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just made a post about it, but apparently, a decision has been made.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/08/vp-decision-has-been-made-not.php
It's not Bayh, Clark, Reed or Daschle.
August 18, 2008 12:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
said this on the other post, what about dodd?
August 18, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or Edwards.
August 18, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
In terms of actually governing, I think Biden would be a solid choice but I don't know if he helps get Obama elected.
If I were Barack, I would pick Evan Bayh, Jack Reed, or Biden.
Sebelius would guarantee a loss as she would turn off both misogynists and feminist Hillary supporters who'd be furious at the notion that women are fungible.
Hillary would add another big target and would make governing difficult. As David Gergen and Peggy Noonan have noted, many in the Obama campaign suspect that a VP HRC would have him killed since she could not patiently wait 8 years for her turn to be President at age 68.
August 18, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree completely with your analysis of Sebelius. On the contrary, I think she's the best candidate, period. But that is my opinion.
Unlike many on here, I don't think Obama needs to focus on having a Veep with "military/foreign policy experience". That's what SECDEF, the Secretary of State and your ambassadors are for.
A Fortune 500 CEO doesn't need to know everything about R&D, customer service, operations, IT, HR and finance. What that CEO *does* need is the ability to develop a blueprint, the smarts to hire strong departmental leaders who can improve their area's performance in conjunction with that blueprint (and speak up about parts of the blueprint that need alteration), and the judgment to understand when those leaders might have to be overruled.
What you need in a VP is someone with *executive* experience. Someone who's a proven consensus builder, who has the ability to get stuff done, and who can be happy carrying the President's water without causing any splashes.
Sebelius is a popular Democratic governor in a solid red state. She actually got the state's top Republican to switch parties. She wiped out the budget deficit in Kansas - without raising taxes one cent. She works well with Obama, she's adept at carrying the aforementioned water without spillage, and she's a strong campaigner. She's also a good age (60) to balance Obama's ticket.
As for those furious (read: hard-core) Clinton supporters, the question is whether they'd accept any man faster than they'd accept a woman other than Clinton. That's an open question, and one that Obama cannot use, under any circumstances, to guide his search.
If I'm Obama, regardless of the Veep pick, my response to them would be, "My search didn't pick the best man, woman, red-stater, blue-stater, Black, White, Latino, Asian, conservative or liberal running mate. My search picked the best Vice President. And that's who I'm proud to have running with me." I don't want Obama to "defend" his pick - I want him to aggressively pump the pick up to be a world-beater. He needs to do that no matter who he chooses.
August 18, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still expect Mark Warner to be the choice. It seems no one got the clue during the keynote announcement. And the calender is now showing the two of them together when it matters in Martinsville, Virginia, on Wednesday.
The delay can best be explained by Obama having to negotiate his way around toxic Monster droppings.
August 18, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, there are plenty of good reasons why Warner won't be the pick.
It's not that he has a lot of flaws. On the contrary, I think most people would be very satisfied with him.
But he has a young family, the vetting process is monstrous, and he's been saying "I don't want it, and I won't accept if it's offered" for two months now. He knows that he can basically be Senator-for-life if he wants, and not have to endure a hundredth of what the VP pick would.
Playing coy is the typical strategy for those who really want the veep pick - something like, "That's Barack's decision...we have a ton of wonderful candidates...I'm sure we'll all be coming together...I have a great job as , and I'm focused on my constituents." Saying, "I don't want the job" is not a normal way of getting the job. :-)
August 18, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Warner is running for the Senate seat in VA. He's more than likely going to win. I don't think they would want to risk a Senate seat... Another reason why I don't think it can be Bayh.
August 18, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there any actual buzz that Schweitzer is in the running?
If he were, I'd be ecstatic. However, with his own re-election campaign going on, I had given up hope.
If anyone has any intel to support this, I'd love to hear it.
August 18, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Schweitzer's off the radar.
Of course, that may well mean that Obama's team has done its job. Recall the stealth job that Bush 41 did with Quayle. No one had him on the short list - of course, I'm sure GHWB wishes he hadn't had Potatoe Head on that list, either. :-)
August 18, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I honestly cannot believe our collective idiocy.
How difficult is it for Obama to figure out that NOBODY except Hillary delivers him as many advantages in one pantsuit????
1. Unified party (half primary votes)
2. At least Ohio (but I think VA FL and more)
3. Working class whites
4. Women
5. She gives him cred on economy
6. She takes on McCain like nobody else can
7. She cannot be swiftboated (30 yrs and counting)
The bullshit I hear about Bill or baggage is completely ridiculous. People who have problems with Bill or baggage are 99% Republicans. They would NEVER vote for Obama anyway.
Clinton has been subjected of a negative campaign since most people here were born and while that campaign is going on, she's still here.
But it seems to me that your hatred of the Clintons is so strong, that you would rather lose the White House in the most "democratic" of the last 40 fucking years on your own than win it with her.
August 18, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do not think Clinton would be a horrible choice. Nope, nope. I do not think she'd be great also. Safe? Most definitely- for all the reasons you outline.
I've been saying privately (my theory- we all have them) for some time that it comes down to either Clinton or Feingold. Both will fire up Democrats, but in different ways.
To Clinton goes the long-time Democratic base, DLC, "old school" Democrats- if you will.
To Feingold goes the Progressives and grassroots (one could argue like the new 50 State Strategy DNC), the "new school", "change" voters.
Both will ensure victory but in different ways.
Who's it gonna be (the question that drives us all bonkers)?
August 18, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
And who's a "great" choice then?
A candidate Feingold who nobody knows?
Biden is a total joke. Republicans will just laugh at Obama nominating the candidate who so weak in the primaries.
August 18, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the eye of the beholder, dear Lalo. For some Clinton would be great, others not. Same goes for Clark, Biden, Bayh, Sebelius, Uncle Jimmy, Aunt Pearl, and Feingold.
August 18, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm asking about great in the context of (a) extra voters, (b) added power on the issues, (c) potential to go on offensive and (d) serious and lasting jump in numbers.
This what will help Obama win and what he needs.
Removing personal likes and dislikes, there is nobody who comes even close to Clinton on this.
August 18, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love Feingold. He's the one candidate who might make me still believe there is a little chance of change.
Biden isn't the worst guy, but he's a member in superior standing of the coward caucus. He's not a neocon but he goes with the wind. He voted for the war though he had to know better and he's perfectly happy embracing the corporate assault on the working class. He was one of Imus's favorites pre-scandal and was most notable for being whatever Imus wanted him to be. In that sense, he is a perfect second banana. He's a smart guy willing to dumb himself down if the intelligent and right answer is the not the politically correct answer. Hence, a foreign policy expert voting us into the biggest strategic blunder in his own lifetime.
August 18, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't have an opinion about Feingold except that he's not well known nationally. That's a killer right there. As for Clinton, as her supporter I don't want her to get the VP nomination. I want her to run and win against McCain in the next election. But I think Obama needs her now.
August 18, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering the quality of the ones who are known nationally, I'm not sure that's a handicap. He won't pick Feingold and Feingold probably wouldn't take it anyway. He's too independent.
Hillary's problem is Bill and her own mistake in not running as herself, strong on healthcare and the economy, and instead running as a hawk.
Well, if we lose we could always exile Bill to one of the Georgian provinces and let Gore and Clinton team up in 2012 free at last to run as themselves.
August 18, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
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