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Alaska Goes Blue on a Distracted McCain
Reader Taniel points to some very encouraging news. A recent poll puts Barack Obama firmly ahead in Alaska.
Indeed, further polls will be needed in order to confirm the trend, but the fact that even one poll shows such a comfortable margin in hitherto solidly Republican Alaska means that the stealth strategies of the Obama campaign are beginning to yield results.
The news also put to rest the primary season meme which stated that only certain traditionally democratic states were significant and brings to an end the dismissing of a fifty-state strategy.
The news also suggests that the Obama campaign is repeating the successful primary season strategy of wooing votes in areas that campaigns traditionally neglect or take for granted while McCain, as did the Clinton campaign, invests exclusively in the typical battleground states, where he has shown some, though limited, progress. The Clinton camp paid dearly for embracing such a limited strategy which left them no margin for upsets. McCain seems headed along the same path.
In Alaska (polling history), a poll by the Hays Research group has Obama leading 45% to McCain’s 40%. The survey included Ralph Nader (who got 2%) but not Bob Barr, who is also on the Alaska ballot. The poll’s margin of error is rather high, however, at 4.9%.
Indeed, further polls will be needed in order to confirm the trend, but the fact that even one poll shows such a comfortable margin in hitherto solidly Republican Alaska means that the stealth strategies of the Obama campaign are beginning to yield results.
The news also put to rest the primary season meme which stated that only certain traditionally democratic states were significant and brings to an end the dismissing of a fifty-state strategy.
The news also suggests that the Obama campaign is repeating the successful primary season strategy of wooing votes in areas that campaigns traditionally neglect or take for granted while McCain, as did the Clinton campaign, invests exclusively in the typical battleground states, where he has shown some, though limited, progress. The Clinton camp paid dearly for embracing such a limited strategy which left them no margin for upsets. McCain seems headed along the same path.
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I might ad that the Republican corruption scandals going on in Alaska are probably helping the good people of Alaska to expand their political horizons this year.
August 12, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, but I'll take the votes no matter what the reason! Yippee!
August 12, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do hope the new Democratic coalition that Obama is creating gets their votes and manages to keep them for decades as big state liberals and heartlanders realize their common interests.
August 12, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rec'd.
Thanks, Christopher. I hope McCain too learns the hard way that the primary season is over...
;-)
August 12, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you would like to see more about Republican scandals, just for fun, there is a long listing on one of my posts "Sex in the Senate, on Capitol Hill, and in the White House" http://www.ritawatson.com/?p=99.
And Christopher, may I ask two questions:
--Is the dog behind the wine glass a Weirmaraner?
--Is there a way to delete my mistake postings?
I did take your advice and posted my article into a comment. But am really perplexed as to why the problem today. Sent the folks at TPM an email. Again so appreciate your help./ R
www.ritawatson.com
August 12, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you do get a response from TPM, I'm sure many of us would care to know about it especially if it addresses the issue of deletions and corrections of posted text. We have long been clamoring for resources in that area.
My friend Anatole is a ten-year-old Rhodesian Ridgeback who is my round-the-clock companion. The photo is taken at our local brasserie where he has become quite a celebrity.
August 12, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anatole has similar features to the Weimaraner, my children have one called Abby.
I will keep after the TPM folks and surely get back to you. Again it was generous of you to offer help./ R
August 12, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here in Alaska, Obama has more support than expected because we have had lots of new, younger residents move here in the past few years. And even some older die hard Repubs because of Bush are voting for him. (Economy, not war. But middle aged and younger want the war over NOW!)
The corruption scandals here haven't had as much impact as you might expect. Our government oversight is almost non-existent. From state to local. i.e. Our town has never had an audit just a general review of financial statements and the 'budget' is millions of dollars out of balance. In fact we didn't even get financials for a few months. Nobody much seems to care.
We've had serious problems with voter registration. Where I live we have more registered voters than there is populace! Again, nobody does much.
But with Palin, some things on state level are improving. Others, not so much. Truth is, she is much more likely to support Obama (in my opinion) than McCain. We always laugh when we see her being mentioned as potential VP for latter. Her Down Syndrome baby is only a few months old and her husband's business is here. She has three other children too and lots of family here.
However, if Obama wants to win here, he needs to come and make appearances in state capital as well as bigger cities. If he did that, pretty sure he'd turn us blue.
We should be able to sweep out both Stevens and Young - but it won't be as easy as you would think. MSM here is all pretty much local. And larger papers are 'red'!
August 12, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a magnificent State - and it would look even better in blue.
August 12, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
CHRISTOPHER, I REPOSTED THE ARTICLE AS "THE POLITICS OF SEX AND COMMITMENT" AND IT WORKED! WOULD LOVE YOUR THOUGHTS. / R
August 13, 2008 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
This Alaskan native is very happy with the news that my republican brethren are becoming more progressive, even while they refuse to ditch the GOP. I suspect Alaskan "conservatives" are getting back in touch with the true meaning of the term. Thanks for the post!
August 13, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
If such a passionate supporter of Obama as yourself is really a Republican, then my confidence in the themes of Obama's message are immensely reinforced.
August 13, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am a passionate supporter of common sense. Barack is the first politician in my lifetime to exercise that trait who has a shot at actually being elected president.
I am hopeful that at some point the democrats and republicans will argue over who is most progressive instead of the stupid social issues that keep us divided now.
It is democrats and progressives (and to a lesser extent republicans) like the ones I find at TPM that gives me hope for my children's future.
August 13, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
PS: The only reason I didn't join the democratic party when I gave up my independent status is what appears to be a GOP witch hunt this year.
The GOP seems to be more in need of new progressive blood than the democrats as well. Seems the progressives have the democratic party moving in the right direction.
Time to do the same thing inside the GOP.
August 13, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Hays poll by a Democtraic pollster who polls for unions is worthless and not being taken into account by fivethirtyeight.com and electoral-vote.com.
Hays polled any adult who answered the phone -- not limiting the poll to registered voters (much less likely voters). Hays might as well have polled polar bears.
Alaska will be much closer than usual but Barack would be wasting his money there.
August 13, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are right. One poll does not define a trend, but other polls indicate what was until now inconceivable, that the race is close and that the Obama campaign's investment so far has made a difference.
August 13, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink