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Will Obama's FISA Cave Hurt Him out West?
One of the more common refrains we've heard regarding the purported wisdom of Barack Obama's support of the FISA bill is that "most people don't care." The subtext is that only diehard progressives could possibly give a rip about retroactive amnesty for the telecom corporations that participated in felonious surveillance of U.S. citizens at the Bush administration's behest. Only radicals, they say, would have the time and inclination to be concerned about the dilution of our Fourth Amendment rights.
By playing the Blue Dog game of forever avoiding that omnipresent (yet now quite toothless) GOP Attack Machine, say the apologists, Obama is simply establishing his bona fides with Security Moms, NASCAR Dads, Wal-Mart Voters, Inbred Appalachians, and Pet Owners. Best of all, he's sticking it to those goddammned liberals, who even many Democratic operatives have learned to despise for their temerity.
I can only wonder, though, if there's a regional difference to this (in my perspective) erroneous take on things. I haven't lived on the East Coast since 1994, so I'm not entirely up on the collective mindset there these days. But out West, folks still get pretty sensitive about the government snooping in on their private lives, oftentimes regardless of their party affiliation. Westerners tend also to be a comparatively egalitarian lot and aren't keen about handing the jail keys over to fatcat suits who should instead be doing 3-to-5 with hard labor. In other words, many people in this part of the country do indeed care about this stuff.
Obama has thus far been running very strong in the Upper Midwest, Mountain States, and West Coast -- better than any Democratic candidate in recent memory. But aside from just getting garden-variety progressives angry at him over the FISA vote, as well as certain other right-leaning positions he's assumed over the past month, has Obama jeopardized his standing somewhat with Westerners as a whole?
We'll have to keep one eye on the polls to see how it all shakes out, of course. I've noticed some softening recently in Obama's numbers here in my home state of Washington. I wonder, too, about states like Montana and Wisconsin, where there no doubt are considerable quantities of Obama supporters who are now feeling quite dejected. Colorado and New Mexico come to mind, too.
I suspect it's only a matter of time before the Blue Dog playbook is seen as a liability at the national level. Progressivism is ascendant, vociferous, and increasingly well-funded. Question is, what level of damage will the insular and entrenched consultant class do to the Democratic Party before arriving at this inevitable epiphany? Sadly, the Obama campaign may be among the first to find out.





Comments (29)
Well, if Obama's support softens, it must be the fault of those damned liberal bloggers, FISA fanatics, and zealous egotistical single-issue voters who care more about their petty little Constitution than in getting Obama elected.
Shame on them.
BTW, I'm wondering if you're a McCain troll or just an uninformed simpleton. Because, as several members of this board know, it's gotta be one or the other. You might as well just get it over now before the pile-on happens. So tell us now: which is it? It'll be much easier on you if you just confess.
July 10, 2008 5:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're either a troll or an idiot becuase you can't seem to make a comment without complaining about how persecuted you are for holding stupid opinions that can't be backed upwith facts or common sense. Oh wait. That's right. It's our fault for your logical failings. Sounds like a neocon to me.
PS: There was not "cave" or a "flip-flip" or anything of the sort THIS IS A DIFFERENT BILL.
July 10, 2008 6:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't agree with much of what is said in the original post, but it's difficult to describe the vote on this FISA bill as anything but a complete cave-in. It's not just my opinion. It's the opinion of many constitutional scholars--including Jonathan Turley.
If it weren't true, Russ Feingold and even Obama himself wouldn't be talking about reversing some of the sweeping new warrantless wiretap powers the bill now allows.
Once Obama is President, that is.
And while disappointed with the democrats on this bill, I support Obama completely.
July 10, 2008 7:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess my main point that the word "cave on" implies changing one's mind for political expediency. It is far from a fact that Obama's support falls into that category.
That said, I think a more united democratic party could have made this compromise bill much more progressive. I just don't believe that is the country we live in right now, despite my own personal opinions.
Like it or not, the democrats supporting this are reflecting the opinions of their constituents.
July 10, 2008 8:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Their constituents must be the residents of Pennsylvania Ave and K Street.
July 10, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like it or not, the democrats supporting this are reflecting the opinions of their constituents.
Really? And your evidence is.....??
I'll wait while you get some.
July 10, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just what I thought. No evidence forthcoming. One more blast of hot air from The Great Pronouncer.
July 11, 2008 3:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
How kind of you to prove my point. I didn't think you'd do it either so quickly or so obviously, though. Congrats, you're doin' a heckuva job.
July 10, 2008 8:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
...holding stupid opinions that can't be backed upwith facts or common sense.
Wait. You're kidding, right?
It can't be this easy. Even for Letterman, the jokes don't write themselves quite this well.
July 10, 2008 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. I couldn't write jokes this good. You prove your inability for reasoned and logical thought with each post. Do you think a single judge's ruling will determine this case? If so, you aren't really all that up to speed on the jurisprudence process in this country.
Before a single second of discovery happens this will end up in the Supreme Court. You know what they will say? The same thing they have said in the past when the Constitution has gone up against Public Safety. The will uphold the legislation and will reiterate that the Special Court must be consulted as per the statute's requirements.
Do you even bother to read your comments before you post them?
July 10, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know what they will say? The same thing they have said in the past when the Constitution has gone up against Public Safety. They will uphold the legislation....
Right. Of course they will. Just like they did here.
Boumediene v. Bush, 553 U.S. ___ (2008) passim, available at http://www.supremecourtus.gov/opinions/07pdf/06-1195.pdf
This was the opinion, of course, in which the Court struck down a provision removing a Constitutional right from detainees claimed by the political branches to be a "threat to Public Safety." So much for what the Supremes supposedly always say "when the Constitution has gone up against Public Safety."
Scalia, of course, foamed and gnashed and raged and denounced the "fact" that (in his view) the Public Safety was being undermined in favor of that Goddamned Piece of Paper:
So congratulations, Jason. Neither the majority nor the dissent in Boumediene agree with you. But what's the opinion of nine Supreme Court justices against your formidable legal skills? Is this an example of your capacity for "reasoned and logical thought"?
The rest of your reply is similarly... shall we say... extraterrestrial. You had earlier claimed that the 2008 FISA amendments "granted immunity for something companies are already immune to." That's a pretty simple, not to say simplistic, formulation. Any decent lawyer or judge would find that a slam dunk, if it were true. Yet, somehow, either AT&T's lawyers somehow missed making that argument in their motion to dismiss, or that the Chief Judge of the United States District Court for the Northern District of California didn't buy it. Your claim fails to explain why, if it's such a slam dunk, and if the conduct was already immunized, the Administration and the telcos were so desperate to try for an end run around the courts by creating new, extra super-duper immunity. Of course, it might be because the Court of Appeal at oral argument appeared equally skeptical. The best you could come up with, as you beat your retreat, was that the unequivocal ruling that "because 'the very action in question has previously been held unlawful,' AT&T cannot seriously contend that a reasonable entity in its position could have believed that the alleged domestic dragnet was legal" was Just the Words of One Judge. It appears that the Court of Appeal was on its way to disagreeing with you -- again. But the fact that the Administration and the telcos had to run to Congress and use fear and lobbying cash to try an end run around the courts and the slam-dunk immunity you suppose was granted in 1978 doesn't do much for your "argument".
Elsewhere you claimed that "A number of lawyers have posted long and detailed explanations why both you and your horribly uniformed blogger are wrong about this legislation as well as the underlying legal factors behind it." Yet, somehow, you didn't manage to link to even one, and today, you still haven't. I'm sure there are one or two who agree with you, of course.
Was that what you meant when you claimed for yourself a capacity for "reasoned and logical thought" and claimed I had none? When you come back through the looking glass, let us know.
Do you even bother to read your comments before you post them?
Naturally. It's questionable, however, whether you read them before shooting off your mouth in reply.
Your replies are, consistently, empty ad hominems with large, baseless, unsubstantiated claims of Authority at your back. Time and time again you either respond with invective or, when confronted with evidence you simply can't refute, or asked to supply your own evidence to back up your grandiose claims, you disappear entirely. Sound and fury, signifying nothing, except when, as shown here, you can't even manage that.
July 10, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're comparing denying habeas corpus and this legislation? Comparing eavesdropping on overseas communications with being locked away in a prisoner of war camp? You have a very weak grasp on the law and very weak grasp of reality. The cases aren't even remotely the same.
July 10, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have a very weak grasp on the law and very weak grasp of reality. The cases aren't even remotely the same.
Your belated efforts at distinguishing the cases -- the only reply you could think of, apparently -- doesn't help you a bit.
I'll remind you of what you said, since you have apparently already forgotten (some say ginkgo biloba helps, but others disagree):
You didn't say "against Public Safety in the narrow context of warrantless wiretapping." Now, belatedly, you attempt to restrict the context. But as both the majority and the dissent in Boumediene made clear, and as I demonstrated in my comment, the Court was clearly concerned about the balance between "Public Safety" and the requirements of the Constitution, which was the sole ground on which your comment rested. Talk about a weak grasp on law and reality.
And if you think that principles such as these can't transfer from one context to the next, you have zero grasp of how the legal process works. And, as I already pointed out, the Court of Appeals appeared equally skeptical of your claims regarding "Public Safety" vs. the Constitution.
You didn't bother to, or more likely were unable to, address that point either. And you still didn't address the point that your claimed 1978 FISA immunity for the conduct in question didn't get the defendants out of court last time. If the issue wasn't raised, it was very likely because the defendants knew they would lose. Conversely, if it was such a winning argument as you claim, the defendants would have raised it already.
Nothing new in your reply. Just more empty, baseless assertions devoid of any substantiation. And still, when provided with an opportunity to, you know, actually substantiate even one of your claims, you turn tail and run. If you have the "grasp on reality" you claim, then you could at least substantiate something as basic as that. The emptiness of your claims is catching up with you.
July 10, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Supreme Court has upheld the Constitutionality of Sobriety Check Points and Airport Security Screening, both of which violate the 4th Amendment. Seriously, do I have to do you homework for you?
July 10, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're comparing checks on a driver's ability to operate an automobile safely (an immediate danger to all other drivers in the vicinity) and airport security screening (for the entirely reasonable purpose of determining whether weapons or incendiary devices are going to be brought on board an aircraft) to trolling through, data mining and storing indefinitely the electronic communications of every American in, let's say, the 213, 310 and 646 area codes? Or all of them? With the known prior use of such techniques, albeit far more technologically primitive than what's currently available, to spy on political dissenters, union leaders, one's political enemies or simply the opposition party? With the attendant First Amendment dangers? What sort of grasp of law and reality is that? Never heard of a balancing test (which the Boumediene Court also employed, and no doubt the Courts ruling on airport security and sobriety checkpoints)? Sweet Jeebus, this is someone who claims to know something about law.
OK. The Supreme Court has held up the Constitutionality of something that you happen to think is unconstitutional. Got it.
As usual, no links or substantiation so that one could, you know, read the decisions or anything to see on what basis the ruling was made, or whether it would be applicable to the circumstances under discussion. Because that's how law works, you see.
And still no discussion at all from you, of course, of countervailing evidence, like the extreme skepticism the three Ninth Circuit judges displayed toward the Government's arguments at oral argument. None at all. Fool.
Still waiting, meanwhile, for you to substantiate your claim of all those lawyers you know who have, supposedly, "posted long and detailed explanations why both you and your horribly uniformed blogger are wrong about this legislation as well as the underlying legal factors behind it."
Still. Waiting. Tick. Tock.
(I've never met the writer nor seen a photo, btw, so I can't really comment on his uniform. But apparently you've seen something I haven't.)
Maybe they don't exist. Not that that ever stops you from just making shit up.
July 10, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unlike you, I have a life. We are talking 4th Amenest violations and why they are upheld by the Supreme Court. Not your paranoid fantasies of being prosecuted by faceless NSA goons "spying" on you. News flash, you are interesting enough to spy on. Seriously, you should get back on your meds.
July 11, 2008 6:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem much?
Always a winning line of reasoning, especially once you're out of arguments.
Oh and btw, re your comment below: News flash -- Since you're making shit up, we CAN'T look it up for you. Because it's Not. Really. There.
July 11, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
PS: As for lawyers, read ANY post on this shit and at least one lawyer if not two chimes in on how stupid your fucking people are with regards to this stuff. I am not going to go find shit for you. Look it up yourself.
July 11, 2008 6:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
As for lawyers, read ANY post on this shit and at least one lawyer if not two chimes in on how stupid your fucking people are with regards to this stuff.
Mm-hmmm. Another extremely easy claim to prove, if true. You could, for example, link to any one of those posts.
Were it not for the shits and the fucks in your argument, I might have been tempted to dismiss it entirely. But the fuck part really makes me think I might have been wrong and really should reconsider. Thanks for adding that.
I am not going to go find shit for you. Look it up yourself.
HA! You make a claim, and then ask us to back it up? That's how it's supposed to work?
You've admitted defeat. You can't back it up. Your claim is bogus. Game over.
July 11, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or, in other words, what hrebendorf said.
July 14, 2008 3:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just wonder what you base you musings on.
As far as I can tell, from friends and family in Oregon and Montana and Oregon, there has been zero softening of his support.
Do you have any studies to suggest this is true? With the exception of large urban centers, "the West" is still pretty conservative when it comes to large-scale change and national security and things like gun rights.
I don't see this as having any appreciable affect beyond shoring up his moderate conservative and independent support. Of course the far left won't be happy, but they are really the only ones throwing too big of a fit over this.
I don't see the "west" as being far left anytime soon.
PS: I grew up both out west and have been on the east coast for a number of years now. There really isn't that big of a difference, despite the stereotypes for both. I would say the same is true of just about very place I have been.
July 10, 2008 6:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
That was supposed to be Oregon, Montana and Colorado.
July 10, 2008 7:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's too early to tell whether there's been a genuine softening of Obama numbers out West. The primary point of my post is that the conventional wisdom of "nobody caring" about this bill may be overlooking certain political dynamics among the western states.
It doesn't require being "far left" to be concerned about this topic and Obama's response to it. The strong libertarian streak among Westerners is admittedly not what it used to be, but remains a salient force. It's why Max Baucus and Jon Tester of Montana -- no leftists, they -- voted against the bill.
The fact that progressives were the main opponents to this legislation is, in my mind, more ironic than predictable. Keeping government out of one's private affairs has long been a bipartisan endeavor among Westerners, and a priority among old-school conservatives. The GOP's adoration of this bill might be a case study of why they're faltering out West.
So how will this affect Obama? As I said, keep an eye on those poll numbers over the weeks to come. With luck, my hypothesis will be invalidated.
July 10, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good points and I think long-term many "conservatives" will find they were progressive all along.
I also think that as the mood of the country changes what is pragmatic and achievable will change as well. The entire conversation, both at home and abroad, will be in continual flux, allowing us to be more bold in our initiatives.
July 10, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absoluteluy it will hurt hime. For two core reasons, FISA was a "principled position" where the initial position was, "heh I'm a candidate who if POTUS will observe the rule of law."
That said, as a top tier issue that was important. Especially after the current administration has proclaimed that now laws apply to them, that they have a right to torture, detain, and break any law that they want to.
When Obama flip-flopped on that issue, and he certainly did, and after amnesty was granted, you are forced to go to a second tier of crierion for selection.
And many independents and moderates will define that judgement differently and "NOT" support Obama.
If Obama had said, well there is one rule of law for all in the United States, and I differed with his positions on expanding government in other areas, I would have supported him.
As it now stands, I will not.
Yes it definetly will hurt him, the varnish is gone, he "surfed the shark," he is now nakedly on stage for what he is, an opportunist, nihilistic, and narcistic individual.
Your question is if there will be a difference between dissonance with the dumb, and awareness with the educated?
Oh yeah.. this definetly hurt Obama and I doubt any of "vote the ticket" GOP base will flip on his FISA amnesty support.
The Narcism and opportunistic Obama is on display, not the branding of a person of change.
McCain actually does have a stronger record as a lifetime moderate and independent crossing lines than Obama, nake no mistake about it.
Obama crapped on the libertarians, he somehow confused their support with those of the ignorant and stupid, who he really doesn't poll well with anyway.
Yep the white collar professional sees the narcism, saw the flip-flop.
July 10, 2008 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
what?
July 10, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Let me add..... Huh?
July 10, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Western Myth is a beautiful thing. One I hold dear to my heart.
Obama's switch on FISA sucks, but not as bad as McCain sucks all around. There's a t-shirt for you.
I'm donating to the ACLU and the EFF for the ongoing fight. I've stoped going to the activist house parties for Obama, for now atleast. In Texas and Colorado, I can speak to some activists who have, atleast for now, taken campaigning for Obama off their lists, though everyone supports him. We'll all vote for him, afterall, he's better than McCain. I swear, I need a button.
I know what you mean about the west. Muckrakers, populists and independents. My kinda place. Public works for the commonwealth, protect the big sky country, but otherwise, don't tread on me.
July 10, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's switch on FISA sucks, but not as bad as McCain sucks all around. There's a t-shirt for you.
True, and as the lengthy excerpt from the Boumediene decision I posted above demonstrates (given that it was a 5-4 decision), getting Obama as POTUS -- or, more correctly, not getting McCain as POTUS -- is crucial for maintaining some level of respect for the Constitution and some level of restraint on unchecked executive power.
I of course was hoping that I'd be able to find a better campaign slogan than "doesn't suck as bad as McCain." But we work with what we've got.
July 10, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
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