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Weekend Bloggers: Kaine, Romney Leading in TPM Cafe Vice-Presidential Predictions Thread (Guess Before July 27, Midnight)
Note: This post continues this one.
The Washington Post reports that the McCain camp is so desperate to grab the spotlight back on its campaign they may announce the vice presidential nominee ASAP. The news could break any time after Obama returns from Europe on Sunday.
So, fellow TPM bloggers, this weekend may be our last chance to prove to the world how we are superbly talented with uncanny political wisdom (or something like that).
All who are game, put your picks into the Comments of this post before midnight on Sunday. No prizes, just fame and glory. If you want, give your rationale (but you don't have to).
Tally as of Saturday evening:
Kaine: 7
Sebelius: 5
Biden: 4
Richardson: 4
Bayh: 3
Clinton: 2
Nunn: 1
Clark: 1
Edwards: 1
Strickland: 1
Romney: 18
Pawlenty: 4
Ridge: 2.5
Huckabee: 1
Fiorina: 1
Crist: 1
Thune: 1
Portman: 1
Giuliani: 0.5
Palin: 0.5
Jindal: 0.5
Don't forget to recommend this post if you want to play the game.
Comments (27)
Also there is hints pointing to the possibility of Obama unveiling his running mate as early as Monday - http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/07/monday-7282008-obama-veep-day.php
July 27, 2008 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has a problem that is going to blow up on him sooner than later - His VP choice. Right now he's desperately trying to be everything to everybody. However once he picks his running mate he's made his choice and some of those groups he's tried to reach out to will be further turned off by what has proven to be lip service.
He chooses Romney to appease the GOP moneymen, the evangelicals will be pissed, he picks somebody to appeal to the evangelicals and the moderates/independents will leave in droves, he picks a moderate/centrist and the traditional base will be angered with him. All give him the benefit of the doubt that he'll choose a running mate that will appeal to them, but what happens when he doesn't?
On the other hand, save the few who still hold out hope Obama will select Sen. Clinton, nobody will really be up in arms with any pick as long as he doesn't choose a Republican. He could get away with just about anybody else.
July 27, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama either Schweitzer or Kaine
McShame Thune or Romney
July 27, 2008 3:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama - Cheney
McCain - Cheney
I explained why in painstaking detail in a previous post.
July 27, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama - Richardson
Richardson shores up Colorado and New Mexico while likely bringing Nevada. Also helps with Latino voters everywhere.
McCain - Romney
McCain camp short on imagination.
July 27, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be funny if both campaigns made their announcements in the same hour on Monday or Tuesday, blunting each other's coverage -- which would be good for Obama.
July 27, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Article over at Politico today highlighting Obama's appearance on Meet The Press where Obama talks about his eventual VP Choice. Basically he doesn't want a ceremonial VP that is just sent to funerals but wants one who will roll up their sleeves and help him get things done. He's not picking a running mate that just might help him win the election (i.e. win a battleground state) but one who is ready to work and shares his same vision.
July 27, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
“Hillary Clinton would be on anybody’s short list,” he said. “She is one of the most effective, intelligent, courageous leaders that we have in the Democratic Party. … I would love to have Bill Clinton campaigning for me.”
July 27, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Before I pick, is Elmer Fudd still alive?
July 27, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clark.
July 27, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sunday afternoon tally: Kaine, Richardson, and Sebelius are leading the predictions for Obama; Romney is the runaway favorite prediction for McCain.
Kaine: 7.5
Richardson: 5
Sebelius: 5
Biden: 4
Bayh: 3
Clinton: 3
Clark: 2
Nunn: 1
Edwards: 1
Strickland: 1
Schweitzer: 0.5
Romney: 19.5
Pawlenty: 4
Ridge: 2.5
Huckabee: 1
Fiorina: 1
Crist: 1
Thune: 1.5
Portman: 1
Giuliani: 0.5
Palin: 0.5
Jindal: 0.5
Not counting votes for Miley Cyrus, Dick Cheney, etc. :)
July 27, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
What kind of democracy is this? Perhaps I missed the rules and bylaws committee meeting, but I am a TPM member in good standing. I have proposed my vote for Dick Cheney (on both tickets) and offered my rationale. Cheney is legally allowed to serve, and he is not a Muslim as far as I know. Yet in violation of TPM polices, Dick and I have been cruelly disenfranchised.
I have registered an official complaint with TPM, ICANN, NASA, NAMBLA, and other authorities of various relevance. This is not over.
July 27, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
An April court ruling in Rhode Island found Cheney's not legally human. Sadly, this also rules out the War Crimes angle. (Of course, have lawyers ruling on "humanity" is a bit of a stretch to begin with, eh? But apparently, a couple of 'em read up on it.)
July 27, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget the ADA.
The Dyslexics Association of America will be happy weigh in to on a like subject this.
July 28, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
my guess is that Obama won't be picking Edwards. Why do I have to get coverage on the Edwards story from the National Inquirer and PerezHilton? Why NOT ONE WORD about it at TPM? I will go with Richardson. I don't care what McCain does. Or even who he does.
July 27, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
You could blog about it yourself if you're so inclined.
July 27, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks...Marc Ambinder's got a report about how the VP is being introduced to his allies at his BBQ, and his announcement could be on Monday as well. I'm thinking he got too frightened by his dropping poll numbers.
July 27, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, forgot to note, McCain and his VP pick. I still think it's Thune or possibly Jindal, and after his comments this morning on "social issues" on this week, it's not going to be Ridge.
July 27, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ambinder also says:
Obama would love Sen. McCain announcing his running mate first because then he has better control when he decides to announce his running mate.
As thing s stand right now, Obama should wait out McCain, to force McCain to either announce before Barack, or to withhold his running mate and keep this election one-on-one.
July 27, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is just milking his base for all this is worth. I still believe that he will announce his V.P. selection after the Democratic convention.
July 27, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain - man, who knows? He needs to pick is Bob Barr, but I don't think that will happen. I'm gonna say he goes with Charlie Crist.
Obama needs to pick either Sebelius or Napolitano. I'm gonna say Sebelius.
July 27, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton & Romney.
July 27, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is simply going to need national security gravitas added to his ticket. No matter how right Barack has been or how well the ME/Europe tour had went and no matter how "out there" McCain becomes McCain is a brand that isn't going to be diminished enough one one election cycle.
And come November, people will vote security over economy/social issues. All of the Governors are nationally unknowns with no national security experience. Joe Biden just makes the most sense here.
July 27, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm gonna go with Romney for McCain. Too lazy to post my rationale, but I think most people understand why right off the bat.
As for Obama, I really don't know. It's really anybody's guess, and most are as good as others. The fact that so few people have guessed for Obama, and there's less of a clear winner as opposed to guessed for McCain, is evidence of this. I'll keep my mouth shut on this for the moment. Maybe before Midnight I'll come back and throw in a name...
July 27, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain - Huckabee
Obama - Richardson
July 27, 2008 11:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain: Christine Todd Whitman.
July 27, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Less than 10 minutes left (Pacific Time)!!!
Obama:
Kaine: 7.5
Richardson: 7
Sebelius: 6
Biden: 5
Clinton: 4
Bayh: 3
Clark: 2
Nunn: 1
Edwards: 1
Strickland: 1
Schweitzer: 0.5
McCain:
Romney: 21.5
Pawlenty: 4
Ridge: 2.5
Huckabee: 2
Crist: 2
Thune: 2
Fiorina: 1
Portman: 1
Whitman: 1
Jindal: 1
Giuliani: 0.5
Palin: 0.5
July 28, 2008 2:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
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