« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Weekend Bloggers: Join the Obama & McCain Vice-Presidential Predictions Thread (Guess Before July 27, Midnight)
The Washington Post reports that the McCain camp is so desperate to grab the spotlight back on its campaign they may announce the vice presidential nominee ASAP. The news could break any time after Obama returns from Europe on Sunday.
So, fellow TPM bloggers, this weekend may be our last chance to prove to the world how we are superbly talented with uncanny political wisdom (or something like that).
All who are game, put your picks into the Comments of this post before midnight on Sunday. No prizes, just fame and glory. If you want, give your rationale (but you don't have to).
Don't forget to recommend this post if you want to play the game.








Comments (62)
Obama: Evan Bayh, Sen. (IN)
McCain: Charlie Christ, Gov. (FL)
My rationale here.
July 25, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Miley Cyrus - Adds rock star appeal, balances out the age problem.
OK, seriously I think Mitt Romney. With Gramm hidden in the luggage compartment, and the economy in triage, McCain needs a surrogate with economic creds. Plus, he still has to pander to the conservative base. Romney's a moderate, but he has pre-pandered to the conservatives. With McCain's son in service, the problem of Romney's five non-serving sons goes away.
July 25, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Romney.
McCain is a complete GOP tool now. He will pick Romnobot like the good little lapdog he is.
McCain, you freaking tool, you.
July 25, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOP VP: Mitt Romney. That's pretty easy.
Dem VP: The following is a wordy way of saying "I don't know."
I still think Kathleen Sebelius has the best shot. I think she provides a lot of the missing holes (except "foreign policy" - but it's easy to argue that having your VP be your policy expert results in bad decisions, thanks to Dick "Mr. Deferment" Cheney). Besides, I've seen her campaign and speak live. "Sharp" is an understatement.
BUT...
Jack Reed was under serious consideration, I believe, until removing himself earlier today.
Chuck Hagel was never a serious consideration due to the (R).
Joe Biden can't find the brakes in his interviews. Great for being a Senator. VP? Not so much.
Wesley Clark, having been tossed under the bus, is no longer a consideration. (Always thought he was an interesting choice.)
The Virginia boys are out too.
Evan Bayh? Can you say "vanilla"? I think Obama will want someone with a little more oomph, though Bayh has a strong resume.
This leaves......wait for it......Hillary Clinton.
Yeah, I know, I know. And I agree. But Obama is a pragmatist - and if he thinks he needs her to win...on the ticket she goes.
So, I guess it's Sebelius, Bayh or Clinton. Your order of preference may be different.
July 25, 2008 11:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Romney and Sebelius. Both the children of Midwestern governors that have gone on to become governors themselves in another state - states that traditionally vote heavily in Presidential elections for the other party. With Senators at the top of both tickets both of whom lack executive experience,
I think the keys to Sebelius in order are:
- She's a Catholic that governs pro-choice despite her personal and religious beliefs.
- Her father was governor of Ohio and still has a political powerbase there.
- She was re-elected in one of the reddest states in the country with significant majority after only winning the office initially with a plurality.
- She's a 60 year-old white woman who is NOT Hillary.
July 26, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama VP: Biden
McCain VP: Goose from the action-packed Tom Cruise blockbuster "Top Gun." Yes, Goose died in the movie, but a fake dead guy would make McCain's own "real live guy" persona more believable.
July 25, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden and Romney. I don't like that match-up for the Dems because Romney's smug prickishness that got McCain so riled up during the primary will have the same result with Biden. Any other GOP VP possibility and I'd love Biden (vs Pawlenty, Jindal, Portman, Crist, Ridge or Lieberman). Kaine or Sebelius would be better "match-ups" for Romney.
Obama's VP front runners seem to be lacking economic gravitas that Romney will bring (real or imaginary), and that could spell trouble come November.
July 25, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only prospective VP that either candidate should be considering is actor Kirk Cameron. The former "Growing Pains" star has true star power, is a massive force in the young earth creationism circles - and as we all know - it's this group that had a huge impact on getting George W elected twice.
Until they require a minimum IQ to vote - the Christian Conservatives will be a massive force to be reckoned with. And Kirk is a true hero among these mouthbreathers.
But - McCain will probably pick Romney - and Obama will most certainly pick Biden. I don't think they're concerned about losing senate seats - because currently Democrats could run Rosie O'donnells used vibrator against Republitards and we'd win.
Vibrate on fuckers!
July 26, 2008 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
So far, if we count multiple votes as fractions of one vote, we have:
Biden: 3
Bayh: 1.33
Sebelius: 0.33
Clinton: 0.33
Romney: 5
Crist: 1
Let's keep the votes coming all weekend, folks. :)
July 26, 2008 1:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
why not just count one vote one person?
July 26, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Due to recent policy shifts, I believe Obama/McCain.
July 26, 2008 7:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Repub - Tim Pawlenty
Dems - Bill Richardson
July 26, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
You heard it here first:
McCain Veep: Rudy Giuliani (or Tom Ridge)
Obama Veep: Bill Richardson (would have been Russ Feingold, if Obama hadn't opted out of federal funding)
July 26, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
All boring governors all the time -- McCain-Pawlenty and Obama-Kaine.
July 26, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. he will NOT pick a vp
2. he will pull out, i am guessing chest pains will be the stated reason.
3. i pick gomer as his replacement
4. gomer picks romney for his vp.
July 26, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who's gomer? I'm not getting that reference...
July 26, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee?
July 26, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes, i can't look at huck without thinking of gomer pile.
i actually 1/2 like huck. he was my 2nd favorite rep, ahead of several of the dems.
July 26, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think of Huckleberry Hound. Maybe that dates me.
July 26, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
These multiple-choice answers aren't making it easy to do a rolling tally.
Not sure that Obama/McCain is possible, though I see no Constitutional reason why either couldn't pick Cheney.
Biden: 3
Richardson: 2
Bayh: 1.33
Kaine: 1
Sebelius: 0.33
Clinton: 0.33
Romney: 6
Pawlenty: 2
Crist: 1
Giuliani: 0.5
Ridge: 0.5
July 26, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me make this easier for you.
As my post upthread said, Sebelius has the best shot. So, consolidate those "thirds" into a vote for Sebelius.
Also, there was a reply to my post that voted for Romney and Sebelius. Judging from your numbers, you missed those votes.
July 26, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yah, I know O/McC is not possible, but, this is the same moment for McCane as it was for the Hilster. If she would of made her move in Feb/March, she would not now be standing on the sidelines.
A Lincolnish kinda thing.
But to play along, Biden and Romney.
Please let it be Romney.
July 26, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain - Rove or Jed Bush (Think about it!)
Obama - ? (Someone with military/national security background.)
July 26, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Richardson.
July 26, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Romney for McCain. McCain can point to Romney's "success" as a CEO-type, and bolster his creds on the economy. Of course, the workers at all the plants that Romney closed while in the business sector probably will throw a wrench into that theme, the way they did when Romney ran for Senator in '94.
I don't want this person, but I think it's going to be Bayh. The ticket will be young and vibrant, in comparison to McCain and whoever.
I WISH McCain would pick Jindal, because that would completely derail his ability to criticize Obama's "youth".
In any event, I think if the McCain camp rolls the announcement this week, they will have made a real tactical error. How else are they going to get attention after this?
Obama will have those commercials showing during the Olympics, followed immediately by the convention. If I were McCain, I'd wait until the week of the Democratic convention, and roll it out then. It will take some of the attention off the convention. In fact, if I wanted to be really gutsy, I'd roll the pick out on the same night that Obama addresses the convention.
July 26, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton and Romney...
July 26, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain--has to pick Romney. McCain has no other good choices. Pawlenty, Thune, Portman are national unknowns. McCain needs help.
Obama--lots of good choices. Chris Cilizza in the Washington Post has analyzed them well--they fall on the "change" vs. "experience" choices. Bayh the only one to fit both boxes. But, he is a typical Washington politician, as is Biden.
I predict Virginia governor Tim Kaine, the "change" choice. He's another Harvard law person. Smart. Depth. Good fit for governing.
July 26, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain/Pawlenty '08
vs.
Obama/Nunn '08
I do not think McCain will pick Romney. In the primaries, Romney performed terribly among the working class. The only state he will provide help in is Nevada, his shit-eating persona will damage McCain's image as an authentic straight-shooter, and he will depress evangelical turnout in several of the Republicans' must-win states, particularly Ohio, Missouri, and Virginia.
July 26, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain will go with Romney in the spirit of Olympic competition--just have to keep those polygamist Mormans out of the news cycle for a few weeks.
I think Obama will pick someone who will totally surprise us. I doubt it will be Biden (seriously, Delaware??) or Sebelius (no way she can deliver Kansas and he already has a good chunk of the female vote). I agree with others it will have to be someone who makes the "security moms" vote for Obama rather than McCain. Haven't a clue. But expect the unexpected.
Of note, George P. Bush, son of Jeb, is moving to Austin, ostensibly to start Gen III of the Bush dynasty.
July 26, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's pick will certainly be one of these 3:
1. Romney (my choice for the contest).
2. Pawlenty.
3. Dark horse Senator John Thune (SD).
Crist's sexual rumors knocks him out plus if McCain can't get FL on his own he'd lose anyways.
As for Barack, his best pick and my prediction is 1. Evan Bayh (who has no downside).
Second possibility is 2. balbbermouth Joe Biden.
My 3. I'll stick with dark horse Senator Jack Reed (who is acting coy and saying he would not accept). reed went to Iraq with barack and will be Barack's Secretary of Defense if not VP. Reed is a graduate of West Point and Harvard Law School.
July 26, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain: Pawlenty
Obama: Tim Kaine
July 26, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mccain: carly fiorina (I can't imagine mcnasty working with a woman, but fiorina would be a poke in the eye to the dems and a boost for the pumas if Obama doesn't choose Hillary)
I find it hard to believe mcnasty will announce before obama does. He's going to need the boost that kind of news delivers and he's not going to want to have it fade away when Obama announces.
Obama: Clinton (not my choice, just who I think it will be. Everyone else is dropping out to make way for her, I think.)Personally, I would prefer Janet Napolitano, gov. of AZ.
July 26, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you give the 'PUMAs' too much credit. They're a couple of dozen psychos supplemented by a bunch of GOP trolls who just like to stir shit.
July 26, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
With the economy being issue #1, I will pray every single night that McCain picks Fiorina.
July 27, 2008 1:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain = Huckabee.
He needs to win back evangelicals, plain and simple.
Obama = Kaine.
Given a choice between Sibelius and Kaine, Obama is more likely to pick Kaine if McCain chooses a male running mate, since their personalities and backgrounds are so compatible. If McCain chooses a woman, Obama will almost have to choose Sibelius.
July 26, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
No way he picks Huckabee. Huckabee even said that he wasn't being vetted and that being V.P. would interfere with other stuff that he has going on. Obviously he's just trying to toot his own horn, but McCain won't pick him. I do think that you make a great point though. McCain won't win over the evangelist vote and Obama seems to shine in those types of forums, e.g. CNN's Compassion Forum back in Febrary with Obama and Hillary.
July 26, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is very likely to choose first. Kaine is a pro-lifer, though I don't know if he governs that way.
July 26, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain-Romney.
Obama-Sebelius.
It's clear that whoever wins the economy arguments will win this election. I think that Obama will feel that he has shown that he has crossed the commander-in-chief threshold, so he will look to pick someone to help with the economy now. Biden's stock had been rising, but world events (e.g. Maliki endorsing Obama's Iraq plan) along with Obama's world tour will give him the freedom he needs to pick someone to help with the economy.
Sebelius has a great reputation for helping turn around the Kansas economy. She will also be valuable for his alternative energy plans. I notice that Obama is more comfortable discussing details about foreign policy than the economy or energy policy. For example, we always hear about his 10-year, $150 billion alternative energy plan, but he seems to be kind of vague with some of the details. I think that Obama will choose someone to help him with his ambitious desire to accomplish a lot during his first presidency, and Sebelius would fit that bill. Obama doesn't like to micromanage, so he wouldn't pick Hillary because he would have to look over his shoulder to see what she's doing.
McCain will pick Romney because of the economy and also to help with Michigan. McCain's best economy surrogate is definitely Carly Fiorina (and it's not even close), but I don't see him choosing her. She's never been elected to public office which will probably be enough to prevent her from being picked.
July 26, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain: Romney.
Obama: Kaine.
Bayh is probably the backup. Warner would be if he could be convinced. Biden is not being seriously considered. Either is Richardson or Dodd.
July 26, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Biden is being seriously considered because Biden said before the vetting process started that he'd only open himself up to the vetting if Obama personally told him face-to-face that he was a real possibility.
July 26, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
But I read this week that Biden said that he isn't being vetted - hasn't been asked for any documents.
July 26, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
i think McCain will pick Tom Ridge. he needs someone with national stature in case he croaks in office. no governor will fit the bill and there are few national stature republicans who've kept, relatively, stain free.
as for Obama; i just don't know. i still think clark, nor do i believe he is "damaged goods" or that obama threw him under the bus. he should get someone with solid international experience and a national stature to make him appear safer.
July 26, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ridge is pro-choice. That issue is the only one keeping the evangelicals backing McCain.
July 26, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, Jonze.
Tom Ridge would be ideal for McCain - kinda like Evan Bayh for Obama - except for the pro-choice stance. That one issue disqualifies him completely from consideration I believe.
July 26, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
mccain flip flops on everything.
why should this be any different. all he has to do is pledge to nominate conservative judges and to forgo a litmus test on abortion.
July 26, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meh, what the heck.
Obama: Kathleen Sebelius.
Regardless of what McCain does this will be announced fairly close to the convention.
McCain:
IF MCCAIN ANNOUNCES THIS SUNDAY OR MONDAY: Bobby Jindal
IF MCCAIN ANNOUNCES LATER, SAY AFTER OBAMA DOES: Sarah Palin
JOKE RESPONSE: In the spirit of bipartisan unity and the genteel spirit of dignified, respectful debate that have characterized this race so far, Barack Obama will pick a Republican as his vice presidential candidate: John McCain. McCain will do the same in reverse
July 26, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah Palin is not in consideration.
A major abuse of power scandal just broke that may wreck her career. She also just had a baby three months ago... with Down's Syndrome. She's not in any position to jump into national politics.
July 27, 2008 12:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
romney's state legalized gay marriage for crissakes.
July 26, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
One issue that could count against Biden is the fact that Obama is trying to establish himself as the foreign policy "expert" and doesn't seem as comfortable speaking on economic issues. Given the state of the economy, not attacking the GOP on the economy is a mistake, and it would be magnified if McCain then turned around and named a running mate with certain economic gravitas.
July 26, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think McCain's going to pick Thune. The only downside is that Thune undercuts McCain's lack of experience argument against Obama. Thune beat Daschle, is bi-partisan (supposedly) and was a big McCain supporter from the beginning. He works well with the evangelicals and oddly enough, he's the same age as Obama.
As for Obama, I think it's going to be Kaine, though I would prefer it to be Warner.
July 26, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain: Romney
Obama: I dunno
July 26, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love your honesty. I dunno either.
July 26, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOP VP: Mitt Romney. He will help him Mich.
Dem VP: Edwards. Reason why? He just simply likes him.
btw did anyone else hear something about a possible Edwards scandal? Hope not, I like him too.
July 26, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOP VP: Mitt Romney. He will help him Mich.
Dem VP: Edwards. Reason why? He just simply likes him.
btw did anyone else hear something about a possible Edwards scandal? Hope not, I like him too.
July 26, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Portman - economic creds and could swing Ohio.
Kaine - which is a pity because an attack dog is needed. (He'll also create his own wedge issue because while opposing capital punishment he said Hitler didn't warrant it.
July 26, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can McCain pick W as his running mate?
July 26, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's picks:
Kathleen Sebelius
Chuck Hagel
Joe Biden
Bill Richardson
Caroline Kennedy
McCain's picks:
Mitt Romney
Joe Lieberman
Rudi Giuliani
Tim Pawlenty
Tom Ridge
July 26, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain - Romney
Obama - Richardson
Biden will be in the cabinet.
If McCain chooses Lieberman I'll die laughing.
July 26, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain - Not sure.
Obama - Surprised that no one has mentioned Ohio Governor Strickland. If he can paint Ohio blue, this is a done deal, no?
July 26, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Strickland took his name out of consideration early on, probably didn't submit the initial vetting papers. Since he's not talked about like others who have "removed themselves" I tend to believe he really did.
July 26, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've tried to interpret all your comments as simply as possible as yes/no votes for one candidate. Best I can tell, here's the current tally of the votes on this thread (including a corrected missing Sebelius vote from earlier, thanks):
Kaine: 7
Sebelius: 5
Biden: 4
Richardson: 4
Bayh: 3
Clinton: 2
Nunn: 1
Clark: 1
Edwards: 1
Strickland: 1
Romney: 18
Pawlenty: 4
Ridge: 2.5
Huckabee: 1
Fiorina: 1
Crist: 1
Thune: 1
Portman: 1
Giuliani: 0.5
Palin: 0.5
Jindal: 0.5
July 27, 2008 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
This thread is continued here.
Please direct your votes/comments to the new thread. :)
July 27, 2008 12:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment