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The Economy: Apocalypse Now?
Is anyone really paying attention to what's happening in the economy?
Are we about to see a string of bank failures and catastrophic collapse?
Just curious.
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Is anyone really paying attention to what's happening in the economy?
Are we about to see a string of bank failures and catastrophic collapse?
Just curious.
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Comments (16)
Heard on the radio (Air America) that something like 90 banks are on a watch list, and IndyMac was not on that list.
NYT article on banks tightening up on commercial credit:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/economy/28credit.html?em&ex=1217390400&en=7e2250400589bb5e&ei=5087%0A
Dow-Jones index is languishing in the same range as in 2000.
July 28, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummmm.... yes.
July 28, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"When The Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, "Come!" I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, "A quart of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!" (Revelation 6:5-6)
July 28, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Babylon reloads.
July 29, 2008 12:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
And despite all the doom-and-gloom, the economy will grow about 1.5 percent this year and is projected to grow at over 2 percent next year.
Slightly stagnant, for certain, but hardly a recession. The Obama administration is certain to be flush with ideas for economic stimulus.
The economy always has corrections. This is nothing compared to the pain of the 70's and the early 80's. Hang in there, folks.
July 28, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Recent events have not finished percolating through the economy. We have seen only the beginning of price hikes reflecting oil costs, and the slowdown has reduced government revenues. The result of the latter will be Treasury offering bonds to cover the deficit, and having to set rates high to sell them in the weak-credit environment. So we stand a good chance of seeing the 70s stagflation again, for the same reasons, a war and increased oil prices.
Not necessary if we enhance entrepreneurship and employment by promoting small-business energy projects, along with large-scale installations. We'll be simultaneously spending less on imported oil and more at home, and reducing upward pressure on refined oil products.
We considered some ideas at:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/07/simple-economics.php
July 28, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not all of us are in our 20s. Yes, this is easily as bad for people as the 70s or 80s. Inflation is killing spending power. And since energy costs make up so much of household expenses, it's hurting people a lot. Maybe worse.
July 28, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
"...the economy will grow about 1.5 percent this year and is projected to grow at over 2 percent next year."
I'm sorry you've bought into this fallacy.
Time for a reality check?
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/05/0082023
July 28, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Fran! Long time, no talky with. Who's this McGowan person you mentioned on the other thread?
July 28, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh she's a truly ghastly right wing talking head that Fox uses quite a lot and now I've even seen her spouting off on CNN.
She is FRIGHTFUL!
I don't know if I'm capable of being objective about her, I loathe her so much. NBut one thing about her that I can't bear is the way she continually interrupts when a Dem talking head is giving the Obama slant and then incessantly accuses her opposition of interrupting her!
I don't know if it's just my loathing of her that has me convinced she's vain. But there's something about her that's SO barbie dollish. I come out in emotional hives the moment they have her on and I press the mute button now when she's ranting.
How are you Ripper? Are things going any better for you now?
July 28, 2008 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
eh
July 29, 2008 8:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
So sorry to hear...whatever "eh" is about.
Did you get my SCAAMD email? I wanted to confirm I sent it to the right address.
FWIW, which is near to nothing, I think you rock.
July 29, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Owning a small steel supply business I have watched my cost of goods sold double since January 1st while tonnage shipped has decreased by more than half. You haven't seen the coming inflation at the consumer level yet. Interest rates are low but credit is severely restricted so the rates might as well be 12%. Think stagflation if we're lucky with a high risk of far worse.
This is not a normal business cycle correction. This is the result of a 1/4 of a century of financial market and large (fortune 500) deregulation concurrent with chronically declining real wages, job security and benefits. Our dollar is half the value of a Euro, our food supply is toxic, baby toys are coated in lead, healthcare is unaffordable, our young men don't know who they are and, today's mother's buy their 12 year old daughters t-shirts that say "Boys are Stupid, throw rocks at them".
Soon, the only tangible goods made in this country will be hamburgers to sell to each other on our lunch breaks from our jobs of pushing one pile of paper to the adjacent cubicle; over and over again.
But, what the fuck, you say, theoretical growth is 1.5% and next year is projected to be 2%. Tell that to the people standing on street corners with signs saying "Will Work for Food" that will be endemic by next summer. Oh, and don't forget, carrying concealed firearms is now legal in most states in the middle of the country.
Growth is 1.5%!
WHOOOOP DEEE FUCKING DOOOO!!!!
July 29, 2008 5:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
The NY Times had an article about banks being spooked and unwilling to lend to businesses. How I wonder can we address the challenges of energy alternatives, not to mention efficiency and conservation, if capital is tight?
July 28, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am one with the doom and gloom.
Take a look at the government, close to 10 trillion in debt and looking at a half trillion projected deficit. That shortfall will roughly add an additional 20 billion in yearly spending for next year and every year after that assuming 4% bond rates. Not that it matters, the bonds aren't selling, instead we are just printing cash, or the new tactic of lending government money that doesn't exist to banks and investment houses that are failing. When you look at the housing price drop and the stock market decline, I got to figure that around 2 trillion of wealth has vanished in this country in the last 18 months. Then when you try to determine the value of things, like a company or house or commodity, the prices start to blur. The wealth of the nation is all financed, from mortgages to stocks bought on margin, trillions of dollars or percieved wealth is really only backed by billions of real currency. Most people do not have more than a 20% stake in thier home, if that after price drops, and stocks are bought with as little as 10% of real stake money involved.
the US has never learned the lesson of the cold war, the USSR was not brought down by weapons or armies, it was destroyed financially and lost it's influence. In 1990 it still had a vast military capability but not the capital to mobilize it, or the capital to influence nations, and so it fell. The US is close to this situation, our currency is held aloft more by tradition than by value, our precieved wealth is an illusion bolstered by credit swaps. The point is, if our debts are called we cannot pay, and would become an insolvent nation.
Because people will still vote for the guy who promises lower taxes.
July 29, 2008 1:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Ripper McCord: I grew up in St. Louis and most of my family still lives there. Love the River City. Can't you find a better picture of the Arch? It deserves better treatment.
October 2, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
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