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Relativity and the political spectrum
We are now at the end of a conservative swing. We are just begining the correction to the center. -- Larry Geater in How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The TPM Trolls
This thought from Larry stimulated a few of my own. I'm sure we've all heard it bandied about lately that the political pendulum, having completed its arc on the conservative side, is now swinging back toward the center. It had to happen, the thinking goes, gravity being what it is and all. The greater the amplitude of the oscillation, the stronger the forces to center it again.
It's a very appealing concept and I don't buy a word of it.
What's the evidence that the country is moving left toward the center? Well, proponents of the proposition would cite the Democratic takeover of the Congress in 2006, the President's dismal ratings, and the likelihood of the Dems increasing their leads in both houses and their takeover of the White House.
But none of this augers a liberal movement on the part of the electorate -- it just signals a rejection of the disastrous Bush Administration and its neo-conservative and pro-corporate ideology. In other words, the country may be turning Democratic, but I don't see it turning liberal, or even what we used to call "centrist."
The Dem takeover of Congress in 2006 was seen even at the time, as the end of the leftist Democratic party. The Dems didn't defeat GOPers with liberals. They beat them with Bob Casey, Jon Tester, and Jim Webb. In other words, they won with conservatives.
Similarly, I'm quite certain that there has been no election in my lifeime where the finalists in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes were more conservative. Both Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama have espoused positions that Pres. Reagan would have been proud to call his own, and their supporters tell us they need to hold those positions to get elected. Why would that be? Because the political center is now where the political right was 40 years ago.
The Dems haven't won by convincing America of the righteousness of the liberal philosophy. The Conservatives have won by convincing the Dems of the electoral efficacy of the conservative philosophy.
When trapped at the bottom of a well, the surface may seem unattainable. But from the bottom of a mine shaft, the well looks pretty shallow. The Conservatives have given us the shaft.
Comments (5)
Yeah, I mentioned this a few weeks ago, warning of progressive overreach (by which I meant hubris):
Liberals have an opportunity to spread their message now, it's not a done deal by any stretch. We have the voters' ears. That's it. I hope we make the most of it. If we succeed, we will disprove all the GOP lies about us (like Cheney's warning that if people make the "wrong" choice, terrorists will hit us)
July 22, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
The electorate is liberal when you poll them on policy positions instead of labels. That means that when they pay attention liberals win.
It is also a lie that most of the gains of 2006 were from the election of conservative democrats. To spin it that way one has to claim that economic populists like Senators Tester and Webb are conservative. That in turn requires that you ignore the reality that they are part of the mainstream American liberal tradition.
On social issues the nation is becoming liberal even faster. Polls now show a majority in favor of gays serving openly in the military. Gay marriage is going to get a majority at the polls in California. A majority support domestic partnerships a stance that would have marked you for defeat as part of the loony left just a few years ago.
July 22, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Granted, the electorate generally agrees with liberal policies, but they don't necessarily vote that way. As you imply, we tend not to pay attention.
WRT constitutional issues though -- and as you probably know, that's my focus -- we're screwed. What do you suppose the percentage is that could even define habeas corpus? Of those, what's the percentage who care? Of those, what's the percentage who care enough to let it influence their vote?
People who call themselves liberals were livid supporters of a Democratic presidential candidate who sponsored a bill that Anton Scalia found repugnant in its attempt to stifle political speech. The opposing Democratic presidential candidate recently voted for a bill that does further damage to an already injury-riddled Fourth Amendment.
Ask yourself this question: If there was an initiative on the national ballot that offered a 25% cut in Federal income taxes if approved, but that also abrogated the Ninth Amendment, would it pass? Would it pass if the people knew what the Ninth Amendment was? Does money trump civil liberties in the United States?
Ask yourself another set of questions: How many Democrats voted for the USAPATRIOT Act? How many Democrats voted for the Military Commissions Act? How many were or will be ushered out of office for doing so? Does fear trump civil liberties in the United States?
Now for the hard part. I did some homework on Sens. Webb and Tester as I should have done before I shot off my keyboard in writing the main post. YOU WERE RIGHT AND I WAS WRONG about Sen. Tester, whose voting record is far more leftish than I thought it would be. I'm not sure he ran his campaign that way, however. WRT Sen. Webb, not so much. His ACLU rating is no better than Sen. Casey's and he voted wrong on FISA and the telcom immunity provision. Votes that affect the Constitution don't come up often. This was his one option and he blew it.
July 22, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The constitutional issues you describe are not on the left right spectrum. They are on the right wrong spectrum and the nation always panics in times of crisis and gives up civilliberties then the laws get abused and we reassert our rights. It is a constant struggle.
Tester did run as a liberal. He is on the record saying that those in the national press that called him a bluedog was not paying attention. He was way out there populist and civil libritarian. Webb is a populist but not as strong a civil libritarian.
July 22, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
the nation always panics in times of crisis and gives up civilliberties then the laws get abused and we reassert our rights.
...and the crisis the nation is facing now is....?
But you do have a point about not being left or right. It's just that the Conservatives used to be the ones who wanted to control us, whereas the liberals tried to fight that control.
Which makes MY point, since the leading lefties have gone over to the other side.
July 22, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
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