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Out on a limb: Jindal or Pallin
Looks like McCain is going to try to finesse Obama's "World Tour", by timing his Veep nominee to coincide with it.
I would like to go out on a limb and make a prediction. It´s either going to be Sarah Pallin or Bobby Jindal.
I don't think it will finally be Sarah Pallin, because the Hillary
women who are not going to vote for Obama are not going to vote for
Obama because they are not going to vote for Obama and Pallin wouldn't
draw one single female vote more.
She is so beautiful that it is not
sexist to say so, it only reveals a certain latent heterosexuality on
the speaker's part.
I think it is going to be Bobby Jindal .
As a person of color Jindal can run against Obama in ways that McCain can't and his lack of experience is no problem as Obama has set the bar very low on that point. In fact it could be argued that Jindal has more actual experience than Obama. He also has strong economic creds among conservatives. As the governor of Louisiana he is also a person of color who Southern whites feel comfortable with, he is also a Catholic... If the Republicans are looking for a way for white people to vote against Obama without feeling racist, Jindal is the key.
I don't think it will be Mitt Romney because it would be too boring and wouldn't make much of a media splash. Media splash is very important because it obvious that the media are trying to black out McCain.
Comments (33)
Interesting choice, however, you do know the press, the blogs and the late night comics are going to have a field day with Bobby and his witnessing/participating in an exorcism.
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/06/jindals_exorcism.html
Then again because this event is in LA you just maybe right.
I personally think it's going to be Mittens, McCain needs the economic creds. I also think the RNC is looking to 2012. McCain is going to be a one term president and should he get a elected they are going to want somebody as an incumbent to run in 12. And should McCain not get elected they put Mitt out their and built him up with the Republican voter.
DISCLAIMER: my crystal ball has really been acting weird lately so don't count on any of the above coming true.
July 22, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Foxbat,
Your guess is as good as mine. The exorcism bit is not that exotic in Catholic circles as you might think and being from Louisiana he is fortunate not to have been filmed at voodoo ceremony. As to economic creds Jindal is apparently a an economic cult figure. Compared to Obama he has massive experience in actually administrating things.
I don't think it will be Romney because the social conservatives don't trust him and moderates find his manner distasteful. It would just look like a bunch of rich white men.
July 22, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I actually think all of McCain's potential choices are pretty bad. I think Charlie Crist is probably the best of a bad lot. He's not an idiot, and he has worked across the aisle, unlike ideological zealots Romney and Jindal. He's even getting married to give himself a chance. His orange tan is concerning.
I don't know enough about Sarah Pallin of Alaska, Mark Pawlenty of Minnesota, or Mark Sanford of South Carolina, but I question whether any of them are ready for prime time.
Romney brings money and enthusiastic Mormon volunteers. He is allegedly popular in Michigan, but I have my serious doubts about how much he helps there. He also brings a perception of being a successful CEO and therefore good on the economy, although apparently part of his tenure at Bain is used as a case at Harvard Business School for the problems during that time. His launching of Bain Capital was supposedly more successful. He seems good at sucking up to McCain, despite the personal seeming animosity during the primaries and the sense that very few voters like Romney. It would then be a ticket of too fabulously rich white men.
I think Bobby Jindal may help with some of the GOP base, especially the conservative magazine writers and readers (National Review will go nuts), but I'm sure some of the anti-immigrant AM radio listeners will view him suspiciously as a foreigner. I'm sure Jindal will be happy to act as McCain's attack dog, with no topic being too low, but Mitt has no scruples either.
Jindal, at bottom, just seems really out there. Obviously there's the exorcism in which he participated in college and wrote about extensively, I think of his then-girlfriend. That's just weird. He is just such a conservative kool-aid drinker, so good at parroting the party line, no matter how ridiculous, that he comes across as way too partisan and over-the-top, never admitting any GOP fault. I saw him on one of the Sunday shows not too long ago, and I just don't think that he will come across well, especially in the media glare.
What do you think about my suggestions for Obama's picks?
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/07/who-should-obama-pick-for-vp-a.php
July 22, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
1) according to the TPM write-up (i didn't want to buy a subscription in order to read the whole essay about Jindal and his exorcism myself) - apparently there was no minister involved, Catholic or otherwise. "Exorcism" as a concept might be normal in some nationalities of Catholicism, but speaking as a Louisiana Catholic, it's more likely that this kind of egalitarian faith-healing would take place in a Protestant than a Catholic church.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/bobby_jindals_dance_with_the_d.php
2) Voodoo ceremonies = Devil worship to Christians of Jindal's persuasion, take place nowhere near where he's actually from in the state, and are incredibly unlikely to be filmed.
Having said that, these differences actually make Jindal an easier sell throughout the Anglo-Irish Protestant South than if he'd actually participated in a full-on Catholic exorcism with priest.
July 22, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would be fun to see Jindal in there, showing that the GOP has a trace of courage.
But Jindal's management record seems to consist of shutting down operations to stop spending money, while in Louisiana. And given the Bush administration's penchant for hiring people to do the opposite of run a department, I am not persuaded Jindal has any talent for making things work.
July 22, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm still betting on Fiorino, but only Monopoly money - your 2 do seem interesting possibilities. All 3 seem to be more exciting choices than the most oft mentioned Democratic counterparts.
July 22, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been wondering if he'll go for Fiorina. It would certainly put some fireworks into the campaign.
Hell, I hope it isn't her: a transatlantic Thatcher.
Doesn't bear thinking about.
My money's on her or Romney.
July 22, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think she has the political chops. She has been very blunder-prone on the campaign trail -- if McCain weren't in dire straits, I doubt he would be using her as a surrogate. Plus, it's not like she did so well at HP.
July 22, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
David you've been watching too much spin.
I would bet real moola that leak was just a load of bullshit to try and get the focus off Obama - he knows damned well he's going to need that for the Dem convention hoopla - and that McCain would no more make Jindal his VP than he would the tooth fairy.
He's just a baby. McCain's said so many times that he wants someone who can take over. And given how much emphasis McCain puts on the C-in-C role, it's la la land stuff to think he'd give it to Jindal.
I'd bet money that his Thursday merry go round with Jindal is going to be on some major economic/energy spin.
July 22, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Fiorino has any political cred, if elected McCain might put her in the cabinet. Jindal is a baby, but in the same sense as Obama (if compared to McCain). He is considered an economic cult figure in conservative circles. Jindal's main thing is that he is young, smart and dark of hue (sound familiar?) It allows folks who are not convinced by Obama to vote McCain without feeling guilty for having voted against a person of color.
They can vote against "The Audacity of Audacity" without feeling racist.
July 22, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Jindal's Indian (South Asian, not Native American) background would mostly impact media coverage rather than actual voter behavior.
How many people will be so on the fence that the VP's ethnicity will make any difference? It might be nice of McCain to make a few potential supporters feel less guilty, but if they would vote for him anyway but feel a bit guilty, it's no net gain.
July 22, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you might be underestimating just how many racists actually do exist over here still. Jindal might cause the Republicans to lose that part of their base.
July 22, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think if a dark skinned person can get elected governor of Louisiana then it means that by and large white southerners are comfortable with him. I think his being a southern governor, an economic whiz (former McKinsey consultant, etc) AND a person of color is practically irresistible... The story of his parents as immigrants too and he has a beautiful wife, like out of a Bollywood film.
July 22, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
It just means that enough white Southerners are comfortable with him. (Not necessarily even half, of course. Just enough got out to vote.) Of course, you could argue that McCain similarly only needs enough whites (racism isn't limited to the South by any stretch) to get elected himself. However, he's already trailing, and it's safe to say that white racist voters are not planning on voting for Obama. So, the question is, will he pick up more white-guilt independents than he will lose racist Republicans? I don't think so, but I don't claim to have a crystal ball.
July 22, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the idea might be that Jindal is an exciting idea for many of the same reasons Obama is, but unlike Obama, although young, he has actually done a lot of things. He is especially credible in economics where McCain is shakey. I don't think racism is just about skin color. White southerners and African-Americans go a long way back, don't they? The relations between the two communities in the south often reminds me of Serbs and Muslims in Bosnia. It is much more about history and culture than just color.
Bobby Jindal, as a South-Asian carries none of that baggage, but he gives the note of multi-colored harmony and American dream-stuff, that people seem to lap up.
July 22, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Indians carry their own, separate baggage, but it's many of the same people who don't like both. The Indian baggage has risen more strongly over the last few decades, so I'm not surprised you're unaware of it. I went to a school that had a sizable Indian population (as well as a sizable black population), so I witnessed much of the hatred directed at them first-hand.
And, of course, I disagree completely with your assertion that Obama hasn't done a lot of things. You've been willfully ignorant on that account, so I don't bother trying to educate you there. More patient people than I have already tried and failed.
July 22, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The racial tension that Caucasians may have with Indians, would be very different than that they have with African-Americans. Indians (Asians in general) have just arrived and they are very successful, many white people are jealous, it would be much more like classic antisemitism than the ever explosive black and white relationship. The history is so different. Anti-African racism forms part of the deepest and darkest part of the American psyche dating back to slavery. Indians don't carry any of that baggage.
July 22, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's probably an accurate statement. However, I'll still go back to the statement that people who really don't like blacks also don't care for Indians (or Jews), so those people might be much more likely to go for Bob Barr or sit out the election.
July 22, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most Americans of South Asian descent are Democrats and hate Bobby Jindal.
Being a former McKinsey consultant most certainly does not equal being an economic whiz. Jindal is a GOP-talking-points-reciting whiz, not an economic whiz. I don't know why you are giving him so much credit.
Also, it's not a contest that Obama is more experienced than Jindal, not least because he is 10 years older than Jindal.
July 22, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just saw this on YouTube. Jindal is hot.
July 22, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
The audio quality on that makes it pretty much unwatchable. I tried finding a better version of it, but was unable to.
July 22, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yikes—it's my speakers, not the video that's at fault here.
July 22, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Try this link to the video
July 22, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Luckily, rebooting fixed my problem. That was bizarre.
July 22, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did learn something from that video: Jindal is actually even younger than I am. I know you've given Obama some flack for his youth, but being 38, I see a big difference between a 37 year-old (a baby!) and a 47 year-old. Maybe I'll feel differently when I'm 48.
No, it's not a reason to disqualify him. It's just a little surprising.
July 22, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
My two cents - Jindal looks like a kindergartner compared to McCain, and in turn makes McCain look 700 years old. Everyone chatters about a VP pick at first but when it's all said and done, people vote for the pres, not the VP, and Jindal is going to highlight McCain's age in ways even Dems could never do.
Also, if he's so smart, I'm thinking Jindal might not want this gig. Turning around right after he's elected governor and going on a national ticket will no doubt sour him with LA voters, who will rightly see it as a careerist politican saying "F you, I'm out of here," and if McCain loses, he goes back and says what, "Sorry, didn't mean it, I'm really committed to being governor"? No dice. Sounds like another very young and promising politican who unexpectedly won the governorship of his home state and had national aspirations, but wisely passed on them for several years to avoid looking like he considered his office a mere stepping stone (Bill Clinton, elected ogvernor of Ark in 1978).
July 22, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Make that "elected GOVERNOR in 1978" - it was Hillary who was elected as ogvernor....
July 22, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
As to Jindal:
Well, Bobby Jindal is not running for veep, but if McCain asks (beg, implores)him, how could he say no? To be Vice-President of the United States of America is not chopped chicken liver, after all. It is a great honor. It would be an honor for jindal and an honor for his state.
As to making McCain look old, McCain is comfortable with his age and I don't think he is trying to hide it... no face lifts, no silicon... no died hair... And not everybody despises older people, some even consider them wise, tried and tested... and a lot of the old codgers vote.
Ageism is a dog that won't hunt.
July 22, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, David, as usual you don't have a clue. McCain is going to lose, and Jindal will not make any difference on that score.
BTW, politicians aren't expected to look like movie stars, but appearances do make a difference to many voters, and Jindal looks a lot like Alfred E. Newman.
July 22, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
July 22, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Jindal is as smart as he is said to be he'll want no part of the McCain ticket. His time is four or eight years from now. Palin is a longshot unknown with a new born who has special needs and Fiorina has never been politically vetted and her HP days and sweetheart severance would be targeted.
I think it's Romney. He's 60yo, so this is realistically his last shot, because in 8 years time he'll be 68 and the aformentioned Jindal will be the GOP star. The prevailing belief is that he has the economic gravitas that the Dem VP candidates cannot match. The GOP would put forth a ticket with the Stronger National Security Candidate (prevailing belief anyways) and the stronger Economy candidate (again the prevailing belief anyways).
Jindal wouldn't make Obama seem so young anymore and wouldn't make him seem so "Un-American" - the two big attack points on Obama by the Right. He has a compelling story and seems really bright, but eight years from now, not now.
Mark Warner vs Bobby Jindal in 2016
July 22, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain picks Jindal then he has to say goodbye to the primary rationale for his campaign: that heis far more qualified to be president than Obama by virtue of his great experience.
Your VP pick is the person who you say to the American public can be president the day after the inauguration. If Jindal at 37, with no foreign policy experience, is ready to be president, then so is Obama. Game. Set. Match.
McCain may have crashed a few planes in his time, but I don't think he is suicidal.
July 22, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin is out as well. Huge scandal breaking in Alaska could end her political career - http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/22/185110/659/964/555337
July 22, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
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