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Olmert's -and everybody's - tangled web.

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I'm continually struck by the dispassionate way in which Israelis publish comments which would result in MG receiving a tirage of abuse. Here's an excerpt from Jossi
Alpher's submission to this week's Bitterlemons.

Discussing Olmert.....





 he persists, seemingly convinced that in his dismal political situation and with his public approval ratings scraping the floor, he has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

In what directions might he now embark? And how would they affect the fortunes of the most veteran and core peace process, that with the Ramallah-based PLO?

Badly, for the most part. Beginning closest to home, all of the Olmert government's dealings with the Hamas regime in Gaza have the negative effect of weakening President Mahmoud Abbas and his government. The Gaza ceasefire is seen by Palestinians as an achievement by Hamas and its arms and is contrasted to the apparent lack of real progress in the Abbas-Olmert negotiations over a peace framework. By the same token, a prisoner exchange with Hamas that involves the release of large numbers of hard-core Palestinian terrorists from Israeli jails will further weaken Abbas' image as a leader who can deliver. Indeed, even the inclusion of a handful of Palestinians among those released by Israel in its deal with Hizballah will hurt Abbas.

Note that the moderate Palestinian president's peace and security efforts, however weak and problematic, have almost never been rewarded by Olmert's releasing Palestinian prisoners. If Olmert wants his Palestinian peace track to succeed, he must deliver tangible concessions to Abbas himself. Yet it is precisely here that the Israeli prime minister appears to be powerless. With all his skills as a political manipulator, he seemingly cannot begin to remove outposts and stop settlement sprawl without losing his coalition. Nor is he or any other mainstream Israeli politician inclined to offer concessions regarding the refugee/right of return issue or the holy basin issues in Jerusalem--concessions that could compromise Israel's status as a Jewish and democratic state--just to make Abbas a hero to his fellow Palestinians.

In contrast, any sort of progress registered in the indirect Syria-Israel peace talks could serve Abbas' overall objectives, to the extent that it presages the weakening of Hamas by its leadership's eventual expulsion from Damascus. When Abbas gave the Israel-Syria talks his blessing, he evidently recognized that


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