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Lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis

The BBC has a very interesting article today, written by a historian who researched the Cuban Missile Crisis in great detail.

As it usually is, he found that things were not quite as they seemed, or as we were told. The most interesting - and important and scary - aspect is that even the American and Soviet leaders themselves did not necessarily have timely or accurate information.

Luckily, Kennedy at least was smart enough to realize that this was likely to be the case, and took it into account. Money quote:

Fortunately, Kennedy did not believe his own spin. His own prior
experience - both as a US Navy lieutenant in World War II and the Bay
of Pigs fiasco in 1961 - had taught him to react sceptically to the
assurances of the military brass.

Kennedy knew that letting the crisis escalate would be extremely dangerous, because things were almost guaranteed to get out of control.

The Crisis happened long before I was born, so I don't remember any of it. Maybe some of you do? If so, what was it like? Was it really something that people were taking very seriously at the time? Did everyone breathe a sigh of relief when the crisis was over?


Comments (46)

Won't admit to "being there" as I was six years old at the time.

I remember that in that timeframe, all of the children in our community were issued dogtags. We lived in Pittsburgh, which was a first-strike target for its steel production. I can remember riding on a local road, going past a line of blast furnaces.

To this day, when our county runs its weekly test of the severe weather alert sirens, I get a shot of adrenaline.

That's actually a very striking image. If six year olds get issued dog tags, the grown-ups are clearly expecting things might go truly seriously wrong.

Defense secretary Robert McNamara told JFK on 20 October that there were 6,000 to 8,000 Soviet "technicians" on Cuba. In fact, there were 43,000 heavily armed Soviet troops on the island at this point.

Maybe it was a good thing Kennedy didn't know that.

I was 1 at the time, so I don't remember anything. Interesting article, worth the read. Thanks.

I was 10, never heard of it at the time.

But, hmmm. I understand they actually had nuclear warheads... We r lucky things turned out as they did.

Actually, I was not 10... oops

Well no personal experience here, but I've always been fascinated by JFK. Probably the most authoritative account of his decision making in the Cuban Missile Crisis is The Kennedy Tapes. I regret that GWB did not read it before committing to his brand of cowboy diplomacy focusing only on the rosy scenario of being greeted as liberators in Iraq and ignoring the worst case scenario.

It occurs to me now that I lived through one event that was probably in some aspects similar to the CMC. When I was about 10, the Chernobyl NPP exploded and I lived some 800 miles downwind.

It took a few days for the commie state media to admit what happened. We knew what was going on right away because a number of people (including my dad) watched Austrian TV news. Official information was scarce, no one trusted the lying liars in the state media anyway, so people tended to assume the worst.

I remember that we kids tried to stay out of the rain and not spend more time outside than necessary. In fifth grade or so, we'd had enough drills under our belt (preparing for the day the dreaded imperialists drop the bomb on us) to know that radioactivity kills you even if you don't see it or smell it or feel it.

Everyone was afraid or at least very uneasy, in large part because we didn't know much, and we knew that those who did know wouldn't tell us anyway. In the end it turned out to be a lot less bad than people feared (where I lived, anyway), but it was not a good time.

That must have been so scary. That part of the world fascinates me, culturally and its natural treasures. It's on my five year plan. ;) I plan on going by train, from Kiev to Ulan Bator and onwards to Beijing. Saving!!


I have on my shelf to read Voices from Chernobyl: The Oral History of a Nuclear Disaster, Svetlana Alexievich and Wormwood Forest, Mary Mycio. I have to get through Fonseca's first.

My bad with the links. Jeez.

2nd try --


I have on my shelf to read Voices from Chernobyl: The Oral History of a Nuclear Disaster, Svetlana Alexievich and Wormwood Forest, Mary Mycio. I have to get through Bury Me Standing first. Work? In between reading and sleep. heh.;) No. The other way around.

It's my day off. I'm going out. Bye.

Ukraine to Mongolia is a long way.

If you haven't seen it, check out this photo essay from the Chernobyl area:

http://www.kiddofspeed.com/chapter1.html

Maybe you can look up the girl who took the pics when you're in Kiev :)

I lived through one event that was probably in some aspects similar to the CMC. When I was about 10, the Chernobyl NPP exploded

While I'm sure you had good reason to be terrified for your person, globally speaking, it was not even close. No one was talking "end of the world" during Chernobyl.

We have been told that the Cuban Missle Crisis was the closest the world ever came to nuclear holocaust. If the atmosphere at the time was reflective of the actual state of affairs, I believe it. I unquestionably believed it at the time as a kid of about 16.

The moment I heard about the resolution will remain in my memory along-side hearing about the assassination of JFK -- you know, one of those events where you will always be able to describe where you were, what you felt. We didn't breathe a sigh of relief, we exhaled for the first time in weeks, then collapsed with relief.

Well lets see I was around 12 so my knowledge at the time of it was what the media and adults around me were saying. The reality was far different. What most still don't realize is that there was a deal struck between Khrushchev and Kennedy that if Russia removed the missiles from Cuba we would remove our missiles from Turkey and Italy.

Some of the positives and maybe not sopositive outcomes (see #5,#6 & #7).


(1) The two sides established a direct communications link that became known as the Hot Line. It was hoped that this would help prevent dangerous confrontations such as the Cuban Missile Crisis arising again.

(2) Three months after the Cuban Missile Crisis the United States secretly removed all its nuclear missiles from Turkey and Italy.

(3) A Test Ban Treaty was signed between the two countries in August 1963. The treaty prohibited the testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere.

(4) The 1,113 prisoners captured during the Bay of Pigs invasion were exchanged by Castro for $60 million in food, drugs, medicine and cash.

(5) The Soviet Union became determined to have a nuclear capability that was equal to the United States. This was achieved by 1972.

(6) China accused the Soviet Union of being a 'paper-tiger' and claimed to be the true leader of the Communist movement. The split between the Soviet Union and China became wider.

(7) The United States became convinced that the Soviet Union would not go to war over another communist country. It has been argued that this encouraged the United States to help attempts to overthrow socialist and communist governments in Vietnam, Nicaragua and Grenada.

The catch of course was that while the USSR never went to war over Vietnam, it did whatever it could to make the Americans' life there difficult.

A lot like Afghanistan in the 1980s where the roles were reversed.

I was six at the time and I remember it. We practiced "tornado" drills in grade school for years, filing out into the hall and sitting bent over with our hands on our heads against the wall. We do have occasional tornadoes in Northern Illinois but I suspect the name had been changed since the duck and cover days so as not to give everybody nightmares.

One of my customers, a man twenty years older than me once told me he was in a hospital in SF with a severely broken leg in October 1962. With a full leg cast and 10 stories up he was very concerned. He thought there'd be no way for him to evacuate the building let alone the city.

What's been known for a few years now is Soviet missile commanders on the ground in Cuba had operational control and orders to use the nukes instead of lose them in case of attack. Robert McNamara's freaked out response when he learned that in the documentary made about him a few years ago shows you all you need to know about how close we came to all out nuclear war. The Joint Chiefs and the CIA were all for bombing and/or invasion of Cuba to take out those missiles and the Castro regime. That was the exact response that the missiles were meant to deter and would have triggered nuclear war.

If you want a Hollywood version of those tense days in the WH check out the movie "Thirteen Days in October".

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Yeah. And drills where you'd have to sit under your desk. Which would be great if they were lead-enclosed vessels.

I was 3 years old, so no first-hand memory of the missile crisis.

For me, the question raised by this discussion is: If a similar situation arose in our time, who would you want in the White House? Obama, who seems to be a methodical and deliberative decision maker, or McCain, who can't seem to keep his facts straight and by all accounts blows his top at the slightest provocation?

I don't want Gramps McHothead anywhere near that button!

Vote McCain - because with him in the White House, World War III (and Rapture) is this close!

It happened long before I was born. When I first read about this in more detail, I was in a college history course. I liked Kennedy a little better because to me it felt like he had an understanding or perhaps a deeper horror of the nuclear option. I don't think he was the kind of guy who could or would sleep like a baby once he'd used that last of all options.

I liked this story and liked the header too. Made me laugh at the end. Hey, the interviews and competing archives overturn the established authority. LOL! Thanks, codegen86.

This might be the nicest comment I ever got here. Thanks, Evainne.

What you said about Kennedy brought something to my mind. Maybe having a president with small kids has a big advantage... he or she is not likely to go crazy and do something that would destroy their future. Maybe it should be a requirement for the office :)

You're so nice. ;) Having young children most likely makes a difference to people with that kind of power.

I don't like any of the Bush's. Still, the current president's father is an interesting man. I watched an American Experience devoted to him. The script claimed that when the USSR was crumbling apart, GHWB's was a restraining hand, behaving with a decorum that did not set off any fire alarms. I'm going to look around on some readings about that time.

You really are interested in history, aren't you?

The disintegration of the USSR was a critical time. It could have gone very badly. All things considered, I think it worked out pretty well, and I have no doubt GHW Bush deserves some of the credit. I'm also reminded of his restraint during the Gulf War.

Like father, like son is what they say... but in the case of the Bushes, they're wrong.

Yes, I really am interested. Even though it is drastically different than what I do now.

You are one of the sweet and smart people here at TPM, codegen86. I'm glad you're around. ;)

GHW Bush gets credit for what? Thank Gorbachev.

In 1989 SecDef Cheney wanted to instigate a civil war in Ukraine to hasten the downfall of the USSR. Even GHW Bush wasn't that crazy. That's how far the Republican party has fallen. You only have to be sane to be considered one of their "good ones".

It doesn't matter whether you were alive at the time or not since those living through it (I wasn't one of them) had no real knowledge of the facts via the news media anyway.

jsfox has a nice list above -- and makes many of the points I was going to make (particularly the Soviet-Sino split). I would quibble that the US was "encouraged" by the crisis of going after regime changes since we had no issues doing that in the 50's. The nuclear test-ban treaty wasn't a result of this crisis either -- it was a result of the accidents with radioactive fall-out from larger and larger nuclear tests starting in the 50's.

The hot line link was critical, of course.

Other, less well discussed points include:

a) Stevenson's performance in the UN. It showed patience to get a world consensus. Nixon and GHWB both demonstrated this type of facile geo-political manipulation. Powell's performance in front of the UN is still a mystery: did he really believe all what he was saying? This is the problem with lack of credibility in the White House. The "go it alone" attitude has cost us today -- especially since it is possible (as we saw in Cuba) to have bad intelligence without any specific manipulation.

b) Informal channels being as much of a key as the formal channels. Particularly RFK's backdoor channel to a Soviet diplomat to better understand the two cables from Khrushchev received.

c) JFK removing the outdated Jupiter missiles in Turkey is a great example of why uniform disarming is not always a good thing. JFK had a chip that cost nothing to give away and let Khruschchev go to the Politburo with something in hand. I am not familiar with missile withdrawals in Italy as being part of the deal. Can you cite a source on this, jsfox?

d) Luck played a tremendous role. The fact is that the crisis was not entirely in the hands of the leaders. This is why patience is so important -- it allows time for things to develop and settle out. There is some interesting discussion of this by McNamara (as pointed out by markg8 above) in the documentary: The Fog of War.

Ironically, JFK ran on a "missle gap" platform in 1960 which Nixon knew did not exist. The irony is that Nixon put the country ahead of his own interests on this issue, by suffering the outrageous claims of JFK on this topic during the campaign.

The real lesson of the crisis: in an age of rapid response, you have to wait as long as possible before you think about using it.

Just to be clear, when I wrote "uniform disarming" in point (c) above, I meant "unilateral disarming".

Oh, for an edit feature!

I liked it the way you had it first time, clearthinker!

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Sure, but the stories capture what people were thinking back then. Fear. Think there'll ever be a day it's not a driving force?

I was a fresh-faced GI at Fort Hood, Texas during the Cuban Missile Crisis. I was assigned to one of the two armored divisions there; the 1st (Old Ironsides) and the 2nd, (Hell On Wheels) General George Patton's old outfit and my outfit.

The 1st Armored packed up and went down to Georgia or somewhere to be ready to invade Cuba. My outfit, the 2nd, stood ready to back them up, which consisted of two weeks worth of alternately "standing up" or "standing down." That consisted of packing up every single thing you were taking with you to the war, then unpacking it all and getting it ready for inspection.

News was in short supply and we had no idea what was going on. I wouldn't say that we were full of "piss and vinegar", but we knew how to shoot our weapons and take orders.

I'm sure glad JFK had a steady hand and didn't just "go kick ass", as some of his advisers evidently told him was the best option.

Great story. Was it very tense?

I think we all probably had the numbness or denial that young soldiers have.

They say that most young soldiers landing on D-Day felt really bad about the other guys who were going to die that day.

That's why you need the soldiers to be young. Older guys are not dumb enough to do it.

There was a recent, in-depth article about the Cuban Missile crisis that included transcript excerpts from the JFK cabinet room conversations. I will try to find the reference; it may have been in Rolling Stone or in Vanity Fair. It was a compelling read.

RFK, like Stevenson at the UN, apparently played a pivotal role in keeping things going in the diplomacy direction in these cabinet meetings, suggesting minute by minute strategies for delay, while the generals were all pounding the table to take military action.
One completely relevant thing to note: it was the blockade we instigated that precipitated the flash point. Now Bush and 200 members of our Congress (including 100 Democrats) want to blockade Iran. WHY? Have none of these people read any reasonably recent American history? 1962 is within reach of real memory.

Given some of the comments made by some on TPM, I'm note even sure that 1982 is in reach of real memory!

I've made this complaint here before: many of the pundits here bury their noses in the "news" but don't spend nearly as much time as reading history -- which includes things from other than the 20thc and possibly even from other countries.

So what is left is the mythology -- that many at TPM even subscribe to, more's the pity.

I recall the sea blockade as the turning point rather than the flashpoint.
Adopted as a less bellicose move than either bombing or invading, it had a precisey limited scope: to turn back any Russian ship bringing MORE missiles into Cuba. And it worked.
The U.S. had clearly stated how it would work in advance, and carried it out with discipline and professionalism (often from the air).
Once the first missile-bearing ship turned back after being inspected, de-escalation of the crisis had begun.
The political moves (hot line, a deal on the Turkey-based missiles) quickly followed.
All that said, the current idea of blockading Iran is far more problematic.
It's unfocused in its purpose and directed at no specific imminent threat, such as the Russian nuclear missiles were.
Its sole purpose seems to be to provoke confrontation and escalation to a casus belli.
I trust those who would carry it out far less than the U.S. Navy of 45 years ago.
So we agree on the danger of an Iran blockade, just not on the historical analogy.

Thank you for your corrections of fact. And thank you for seeing the analogy, even if my facts were wrong.

The Cuban Missile Crisis was very scary. In October 1962 I was in my Senior year of high school. We had just finished basketball practice and one of my teammates said that we didn't have to bother doing our homework since we'd be dead by morning. I remember thinking there was a 50/50 chance the guy was correct.

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In October 1962 I had just turned 13. It was a very scary time. The news seemed to focus on what the possible targets were that these nukes could reach; our local news made a big deal of our local coal resources considered a good energy source at the time (not so much now, of course). I remember asking my dad if we were all going to die. My dad kept reassuring me and my siblings that all would be well.

It wasn't such a quick thing, either. The blockade went up and we all collectively held our breaths since we realized it was not just an answer to the missiles but perhaps would be viewed as a provocation--Krushev was viewed as an out-of-control nut. Of course we didn't know the back story of the military wanting to go nuts and JFK and RFK keeping a patient hand. But we did know about the blockade and the risks; JFK was extremely reassuring. It was widely viewed as extremely courageous and reassuring that Jackie and the two children remained at the White House since the White House was seen as probably the first target.

It was the WW II folks who were in charge; and they faced the whole thing with courage. It certainly kept most folks calmed down at the time. I've often thought that this incident was the reason for my fascination with "end of time" science fiction. :)

I was 14 years old at the time and remember the feeling of anxiety that our city might draw a missile or two or three. Nuclear war was an active possibility in people's heads back then.

I wasn't politically savvy on international relations at that time (and still am not), and couldn't really form my own threat assessment(like "maybe there's a 50% chance that its all coming to an end") so just trusted that the grownups would work things out sub-nuclearly!

And thats the way it all worked out. WWII was still in the recent past and the Soviets had been bled white by the Great Patriotic War and most of their west of the Urals country trashed; they really didn't want to start another one I don't think, no matter what historians say.

Now those living memories are gone over there and the younger generations coming up don't remember what a god-awful hell that war on one's own soil is. Makes WWIII a lot more likely now than it was in 1962.

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Thanks for this. It's really interesting.
I studied the Cuban missile crisis as part of my international relations course - Graham Allison's book on it is one of the classic texts for examining different theories of foreign policy decision making.
One of the things that struck me most about it was how greatly influenced JFK had been by reading Barbara Tuchman's book The Guns of August - particularly the way in which each side kept making decisions that escalated the war based on false premises about what the other side would do.

I've always thought the world owes fully as much to Tuchman as it does to JFK.

I was really excited when the tapes were declassified a few years ago - and then disappointed when nothing particularly new turned up (contrary to the press beatup). But this man's work is!

"Defense secretary Robert McNamara told JFK on 20 October that there were 6,000 to 8,000 Soviet "technicians" on Cuba. In fact, there were 43,000 heavily armed Soviet troops on the island at this point."

Amazing! As is the revelation that the ships were 500 nautical miles away from the US ships.

Thanks so much. Off to Popwells to order a copy.

Good to see you again, Fran. Do you suppose JFK had also read Catch-XXII before the CMC? :)

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Thank you. :-)

Catch 22? yeah...

I have to admit I always find it slightly unnerving when Obama cites JFK as a role model: eg negotations: one of the reasons why Kruschev thought he could get away with putting the missiles on Cuba was that, when he'd met with Kennedy he'd concluded he was inexperienced and weak, and I always steel myself for Republican attacks on that. (And I figure they don't need reminding of how disastrous the Bay of Pigs was and how JFK had been duped into it by the CIA and the Generals

(Must admit I always find it slightly annoying that it's always JFK who gets credit for the handling of the missile crisis when I've always thought it was RFK who came out of it the great hero. I suppose it was both of them, but for me it really is Bobby who shone.

Presidents tend to get credit and blame for events that occur on their watch... unfair or not, that's the way it is.

I wonder if Khrushchev was sorry for underestimating Kennedy...

Thanks for the interesting stories, folks. Keep 'em coming.

Really? You wanna hear the story of how I won a limbo contest (and a bottle of champagne from the man himself) in Jack Ruby's nightclub in Dallas in 1963?/

Go right ahead :)

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