In the few minutes since I posted, another poll got added and the numbers adjusted slightly. (It's now M 38.4.) But the overall significance remains the same. The inclusion of third-party candidates seems to hurt McCain dramatically, and Barack not at all. And it doesn't seem to matter whether the added candidates come from the right or the left.

A couple more thoughts. The more I think about this, the more I feel it explains the kinds of campaigns Obama and McCain have been respectively running.

We've heard a lot about Obama's perceived flip-flops, and in part because the center of gravity on TPM is somewhere to Obama's left, we tend to perceive that as a serious problem for him.

But you could view that problem as a symptom of a more important strength. Over the last month, Obama has been able to pivot to the middle -- at least rhetorically (I'm not claiming much actual policy movement). That's what presidential candidates usually do after the primary is over, and it's not really surprising.

What is surprising is that John McCain hasn't made a perceptible effort to do the same thing. And now I feel I know why. For whatever reason -- his own disconnect with the GOP base, the broader weakness of the Republican brand, whatever -- his voters are very willing to vote for someone else or just stay home. He has to keep feeding them.

For whatever reason -- enthusiasm for Obama personally, or bitter memories of the last eight years -- Obama's voters are solid. The hilarious thing is that we've spent the last three months bitching and moaning about party unity, as if that was one of the major threats we faced. In fact, I think it's near the bottom of the list of things we need to worry about.

Nader will hurt Obama only if during the debates Obama obnoxiously sighs and breathes heavily into the microphone while McCain speaks.

Let's face it. If Obama doesn't win this race against McCain, he Democrats don't deserve to win. The war is unpopular, Bush is unpopular, the economy is in the tank and potentially heading for Great Depression levels, no one has any faith in the direction of the country, and McCain is an idiot. The only reason the Democrats might lose this thing yet is that the only thing less popular than Bush is the Democratic Congress. Unfortunately, they've earned that disapproval with their disastrous enabling of Bush. So, leaving out the possibility that Americans simply won't elect a black man as President (and it seems that most would), this is Obama's race to lose.

I don't want to foster overconfidence. Mainly, I'm afraid of what hrebendorf & co. will do to me if I do.

But -- barring some major event between now and Nov -- the fundamentals of the race appear to be in our favor. See this graph of economic growth plotted against election results.

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2008/03/doug_hibbs_sez.html

Sounds like there is a relatively set percentage of voters that's not going to vote for Obama (as of yet, anyway), but X percent are not all that excited about McCain either, so they'll take the alternatives if offered. If Obama gets 51%, I'm not all that concerned how the other 49% split. If ends up pulling a Clinton and gets less than 50%, I'm DAMNED concerned how the other 50%+ split.

Interesting stuff.

After what happened in 2000, it would be good karmic payback if Nader's candidacy helped the Democratic candidate this time around.