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Ich bin ein hawaiianische Chicagolander
The recently arrived-at conventional wisdom that by releasing troops from Iraq, the dire situation in Afghanistan will somehow magically improve also requires a more rigorous scrutiny. McCain and Gates are talking about deploying an additional 10,000 soldiers or three combat brigades there; Obama would send two. That would take total US and Nato force levels to, at most, 82,000 troops, plus 145,000 Afghan army and police of varying reliability. But to attain a lasting improvement in security while creating critical breathing space for reconstruction and institution building, a much larger presence may be deemed necessary. General Dan McNeill, a former Nato commander in Afghanistan, has estimated 300,000 well-trained, disciplined security personnel are needed. Some US counter-insurgency experts say an additional 150,000 fighting soldiers are required. These huge numbers should give pause, especially to Obama. Having opposed the Iraq quagmire and scored political points for doing so, the Democrat is in danger of putting his name to another escalating foreign military adventure that while arguably more justified, is just as likely as Iraq to go badly, bloodily wrong. Simon Tisdall - Guardian
It's true: Barack Obama reminds one of John Fitzgerald Kennedy.
The grace, the glamor, the "soaring" rhetoric; it's all there.
The ecstatic Berlin crowds complete the picture.
I loved JFK... I was only sixteen when he got elected, I was heartbroken when he was killed. American politics have never recovered from that trauma.
However, part of my growing up politically was to sadly discover that JFK was probably the worst president of my lifetime. Much worse than Jimmy Carter, even worse than "The Decider" himself.
And paradoxically, part, probably the greatest part, of what made JFK so bad, was how well he spoke.
He literally talked the United State of America into Vietnam.
Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.How do you like them apples?
This much we pledge—and more.
Of course, we found out that we couldn't "pay any price" or "bear any burden" (although we could get a hernia trying) or "meet any hardship" or "support any friend" or "oppose any foe"... Nothing like it...
It was all bullshit and it cost the lives of a couple of million South East Asians and 50,000 Americans and it ruined the dollar and ruined American politics.
If there was any lesson the American people should have learned, it was that one.
Hot off the wires:
This is the moment when we must renew our resolve to rout the terrorists who threaten our security in Afghanistan, and the traffickers who sell drugs on your streets. No one welcomes war. I recognize the enormous difficulties in Afghanistan. But my country and yours have a stake in seeing that NATO's first mission beyond Europe's borders is a success. For the people of Afghanistan, and for our shared security, the work must be done. America cannot do this alone. The Afghan people need our troops and your troops; our support and your support to defeat the Taliban and al Qaeda, to develop their economy, and to help them rebuild their nation. We have too much at stake to turn back now.(...) People of Berlin - people of the world - this is our moment. This is our time.(...) It is in pursuit of those aspirations that a new generation - our generation - must make our mark on history. People of Berlin - and people of the world - the scale of our challenge is great. The road ahead will be long. But I come before you to say that we are heirs to a struggle for freedom. We are a people of improbable hope. Let us build on our common history, and seize our common destiny, and once again engage in that noble struggle to bring justice and peace to our world.How do you like them apples?
If you stop and think about it, isn't it wonderful, truly God's gift to Americans and to the people of the world at large, that George W. Bush is such a lousy speaker?
Because, have no doubt:
I come before you to say, that this is our time.
This is the moment.
People of Berlin and of the world.
This is the moment...
The moment, that when, and if, this young and brilliant man gets elected President of the United State of America,
That will be the moment, proud citizens, that our time will have come... again... to talk ourselves into some mighty deeeeeeeeeep and righteous shit sir... and that's a natural fact. DS
http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com/
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Comments (15)
Interesting post, but a bit unfair don't you think?
Between Obama's being tempted to overeach by soaring rhetoric and Mc"100 years in Iraq" the anti-war choice is clear.
And if I read the history books correctly, Vietnam became the overwhelming mess it was only after JFK's death. It was LBJ who was the original "surge" proponent.
July 25, 2008 4:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iraq isn't Vietnam.
Iraq is civilized, modern country, which the United States has nearly destroyed, but which is still able to re-organize itself. The situation, in Iraq, miserable as it is, might improve in time and meanwhile the USA would still control some of the world's best oil fields at what would probably be a decreasing cost to its forces.
It is said that Iraq strains America's armed forces "to the breaking point", but in fact the occupation has been "managed", by a relatively small number of professional troops and a pack of venal contractors.
Afghanistan is a completely different story: it has never been organized; it never was what you would call "civilized"... and since Alexander the Great, no one has ever been able to conquer it.
To "win" in Afghanistan would mean bringing back the draft in the USA and Europe in order to put boots on the ground of every inch of Pakistani Waziristan for the at least the next decade. It might cause the disintegration of Pakistan and destabilize all of South Asia... And still lose!!!
Afghanistan could be much worse than Vietnam.
July 25, 2008 4:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I see your point about Kennedy and Vietnam, but I don't agree that Afghanistan is the new Vietnam.
Afghanistan needs NATO in order for fundamental infrastructural changes to be made -- modernization of this ravaged and impoverished country may be seen as neocolonialism, but by Afghani accounts, this country has been abandoned to extremism and violence...conditions under which public health much less than political and public institutions can barely be said to be much improved from 17th century conditions.
July 25, 2008 4:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let me quote my favorite pundit, William Pfaff,
I think Afghanistan could be much worse than Vietnam, because it's in a more important location. It's people are much less civilized than the Vietnamese. Pakistan has the atomic bomb... and because nobody has ever succeeded there. Also failure would probably break NATO. The list in endless.July 25, 2008 5:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is nothing particularly sophisticated or 'civilized' about identifying one's own interest in a conflict and making the necessary alliances to further the same. Self-interest is what it is. Those whose notion of self-interest is broad enough to include national objectives worthy of self-sacrifice might object that you sell both Afghans and Americans short in your 'analysis'.
July 25, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a glaring hole in your argument against JFK, in the summer of 1963 he began to think about PULLING the US special forces advisers OUT of Vietnam and by the early fall had already SIGNED the order for the first 1000 of the 17,000 US troops to come home.
http://tapes.millercenter.virginia.edu/exhibits/vietnam_withdrawal/
..... and reveal the outlines of what is clearly a withdrawal plan, laid out by Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Maxwell D. Taylor, in a series of recorded meetings from October 1963. As conceived, the plan would have removed most U.S. troops from Vietnam by the end of 1964 and virtually all of them by 1965. To kick-start that process, the Defense Department was prepared to recall 1,000 soldiers by the end of 1963.
After the tragedy of Nov 1963 Pres Johnson countered that order, and with what ever happened in the Gulf of Tonkin incident, it was Johnson who sent in hundred of thousands of troops.
July 25, 2008 6:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
While David I might agree with you the Afghanistan has the potential of becoming another Vietnam if we look to the Russian occupation as the model. However, we also must remember that why Russia invaded in the first place.
In April of 1978 the Marxist PDPA Party seized power executing then head of state Mohammad Daoud Khan and his family and immediately set in place Soviet style reforms and decrees. Which sat poorly with the population. A rebellion against the government started in late '78 and the Russian at the behest of the Afghan gov. sent in troops to prop up the regime in '79.
Now enters the US and funny how this came to be, I quote:
Unfortunately where we failed miserably was follow-up. When the Russian left so did we. Thus allowing the Taliban to fill the vacuum. A even more repressive regime than the PDPA or the Russians. Afghanistan may be muslim, but it is not nor has it ever been a highly strict muslim country, the Taliban changed that. So the difference may, and I emphasize the may, be in the fact that the Afghan people do not want the Taliban back in power. There is no US, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and China propping up the insurgency.
By definition anytime you have factions within a country fighting you can label it a civil war. Will the outcome be different it well could be. It depends if we follow more of a Powell doctrine with clear goals and a clear exit strategy. How ever in this life there are no guarantees.
Actually the greater issue than Afghanistan may be Pakistan and their blind eye to allowing a haven for the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the northern territories.
July 25, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Afghanistan is "fixable", at best it might be "isolatable".
July 25, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Surely Afghanistan can't be fixed. But also surely it can be made somewhat less bad. I agree that Obama's rhetoric implies he aims much higher than that, and like you , I find that worrying.
July 25, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to say the Afghanistan rhetoric alarms me as well. I think Obama should take a side trip to the Kremlin and speak to some people there before he continues this escalating tough talk. It's going to get him into trouble, and get all of us back into really hot soup again, though I do hold onto the hope he can back off from this stuff once elected. You know, he's put on the flag pin too. There are things you just have to do and say.
Still, we do have to do something to help stabilize this other country that we've wrecked, so some military involvement probably has to continue for a while, but please please let's not turn this into some kind of war for making the world safe for democracy or any such malarkey -- even less appealing is this central war on terrorism meme, shifted from Iraq to poor Afghanistan. As Mao might have put it, the terrorist is like a fish in the sea, and combating terrorism has got to be a matter of international, collaborative intelligence work and special ops. Anything else is like trying to bag a fish with a missile, and hundreds of thousand boots on the ground is not the answer. They'll just fold up their tents while our tanks burn gasoline and further heat up the skies.
How about more competence on the ground and in the halls of diplomacy? Or do we want more and more bombed out weddings with 40 plus women and children dead on and on into a no end in sight future?
July 25, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I for one do not think we are capable of fixing as you say. It is not nor should it be our job to fix. Maybe allow the space for the Afgan gov. and the Afgan people to fix would be a better way of putting it. However, for this to happen we must not try and force them to fix it in our image. I have never been a proponent that all the peoples of the world want to be just like us or that our form of government works for all. Hell sometimes it doesn't even work for us.
July 25, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
The main deal in Afghanistan is who protects the opium. If NATO protected and then bought the Afghan opium crop (guaranteeing market prices) and used the opium for legitimate medical purposes, that would probably solve about 75% of the Afgan problem and cost less than military occupation and cut the ground out from under all the mafias and the taliban, but that isn't going to happen, is it?
July 25, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
We did fix Germany quite well, so Afghanistan, primitive in her isolation, mother of Aryan nations, could also enjoy the benefit of this opportunity granted to her by the world.
Let us not be confused by mediocre historical analogies.
July 25, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seaton is back with his usual cluster of strawmen.
First he tell you that JFK disappointed him from the grave, and then he declares that Obama is another JFK, and of course that means that Obama is bad. Nice trick that, if you want to fall for Seaton's bullshit.
JFK was in his grave, when Johnson lied about the Gulf of Tonkin, and kept on escalating in Vietnam. Kennedy was dead, so no one knows what he would have done, so Seaton is just making up a pack of lies about Kennedy having caused all those deaths in Vietnam. He was dead folks, so he did not cause any of that.
Now we get to the next Seaton deceit:
Obama wants to pull out most combat troops from Iraq, which did not attack the US, and deploy more of them to the region that actually attacked the USA on 9/11.
The US is on it's own in Iraq, but of course since Obama wants to turn the control of that nation back to it's government, then Seaton has to object. The amazing thing is that Seaton declares that the reason why we should stay in Iraq is because it has long history of being civilized and able to run it's own affairs. That makes Obama's point valid.
NATO is in Afghanistan, so America is not going it alone. We have a united front there with all our most important allies; the exact opposite of our situation in Iraq. The reason why NATO is with us in Afghanistan is because that is where we, and several of the other members were attacked from. That is why they are not with us in Iraq, because none of the NATO members were attacked by Iraq.
Obama has it right, and of course, since he is dark skinned, then Seaton has to stand logic on it's head, to try and make a case against him.
July 25, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
david, i get your fear that obama == kennedy and afghanistan/pakistan == vietnam, but what i don't get is how the hell you developed that fear.
you wrote:
iraq is a country cobbled together at the end of wwi for the british. prior to the invasion, for nearly a quarter of a century it was ruled by a dictator who led the country into 2 disastrous wars, occasionally practiced ethnic cleansing, and otherwise ruled through fear and intimidation in order to keep the country together. you are correct that with him gone, the country has been able to re-organize itself. we saw this from 2003 - present as they re-organized themselves along sectarian lines, while the wealthy and/or educated re-organized themselves to Jordan or Syria. this is unfortunately a classic and yet modern storyline: dictator/king dies and the tribes who remain move quickly to seize resources/land and push out the others.
but afghanistan/waziristan, that's going to be the thing that breaks us?
Afghanistan was never civilized? the google indicates afghanistan has been part of several ancient empires, including the persians, oh hey, didn't somebody mention Alexander? and i have two names for you when you say no one's conquered the place since Alexander: Ghenghis Khan and the Taliban.
okay, you flubbed some facts, that's fine. but why do you think a "win" in afghanistan/waziristan means calling up a draft in the USA and Europe? What do you think of as Obama's definition of a win? Do you think he means to flood the place with GI's and try to conquer waziristan? What convinced you that obama's the guy who's going to pull our troops out of iraq in order to flood 500K troops into Afghanistan? And how could the waziris and talibs possibly wrest some nukes out of the hands of pakistan's army?
you left out a few steps in your logic. please explain why obama is going to escalate like kennedy(johnson maybe?) and why afghanistan will be another vietnam.
July 25, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
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