As the announcement of Bertha brings us into the third hurricane season since Katrina, it is important to heed one of her terrible lessons - that our FEMA strategy is (still) overwhelmingly dependent on the ability of ordinary citizens to help themselves.

The epicenter of Katrina's human toll centered in the poorest wards of New Orleans, where many people (by their own means) could not evacuate prior to the storm's arrival.  An oft repeated question in the aftermath was "why didn't those people just leave?"   The fact is, hurricane paths are not predictable; particularly early on.  Where a storm will take landfall, and how destructive it will be (or not be) cannot be accurately predicted until the final days or hours. Moving out of harms way can bring with it significant expense: lost wages, travel, lodging, and food, among others.  Thus, the decision to stay or leave can be a very expensive crap shoot for those living paycheck-to-paycheck.

The economic crisis now facing the whole of the U.S. has greatly increased the number of families that cannot easily bear the speculative expense of avoiding a potential storm.  Further, the breathtaking rise in fuel and food prices have only upped the ante.  Looming still, is the specter of an early Gulf hurricane crippling domestic refining capacity and driving the cost of a tank of gasoline, which could ultimately be the difference between a family's life and death, out of reach.

It is highly likely that many of the critical assumptions within our FEMA policy rely upon economic realities that no longer hold true.  Many Floridian families have been particularly affected by the impacts of the sub-prime mortgage crisis leaving them much less able to fend for themselves even without the threat  of hurricanes.

Unless, FEMA, the President, and our political leadership take immediate action to adapt and respond to this new vulnerability, the likeliness of a "worse than Katrina" scenario is all too plausible.