Perhaps in the Middle East, a region where arch symbolism carries cultural cachet equivalent to indiscriminate bloodletting, an olive branch by proxy is nevertheless a suitable peace offering.

It’s been a fortnight of upsetting developments for those who would spread our New Imperium throughout the area, toppling governments and plopping down pre-fab Monticellos in a corner of the world not known for democracy or cracker-barrel Yankee values. And now at least some of our big guns off the coast have packed up their puttees and hit the road.

It’s uncertain whether these developments will cool down rumors of an “October surprise” attack on Iran to make regime change a fait accompli regardless of who's the last man standing on Inauguration Day. But the way things have been going this spring/summer, any ventilation in the Administration’s gas bag is welcome.

First there was noise from the Pentagon itself, undercutting the idea that an attack on Iran would be the best brainstorm since Ikea glimpsed styrofoam. Adm. Michael Mullen, in a press conference last week, did everything short of bitch-slap into a cocked hat any bomb-bomb-bomb proposals; this nipped the wet dreams of many in the Administration and media who believe an air strike on Persian nuclear facilities would somehow solve all American (and Israeli) strategic problems:

“…I’m convinced a solution still lies in using other elements of national power to change Iranian behavior, including diplomatic, financial and international pressure. There is a need for better clarity, even dialogue at some level,” Mullen said.

“…I think that, you know, just about every move in that part of the world is a high-risk move. And that’s why I think it’s so important that the international piece, the financial piece, the diplomatic piece, the economic piece be brought to bear with a level of intensity that resolves this.”

Not exactly “let’s jump the bogies and punch the button”, Slim Pickens-style militancy from our top military commander. And, as if to underline the immediacy of a new mothball diplomacy, the USS Abraham Lincoln has been ordered redeployed to the Afghan theater.  The aircraft carrier had been stationed in the Gulf since late March, helping sweat the Tehran regime with other U.S. naval task forces in the region.

Part of this shuffle is sheer logistics: The campaign in Afghanistan has lost ground after early gains in 2001-’02. Most of America’s prime fighting forces and machinery have been sucked into the black hole that is Iraq, and now the Taliban and al Qaeda are resurgent in their old strongholds. But it’s tempting to wonder if the Pentagon is making a statement of its own – overruling the civilian chicken-hawks with top-brass repudiation of their cherished Iranian project. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates hasn’t exactly been a cheerleader for the War Party since coming on board last year.

And maybe this force-shuffling is in anticipation of a new base of operations in southern Asia. After all, the prime minister of Iraq has just about had it with us. Although Administration viziers have spent much of the week poo-pooing his “language,” Nouri al-Maliki told Arab diplomats in Abu Dhabi a few days ago that the United States should set a timetable for its troop withdrawals – and begin getting the hell out of his country. Backing him up on that sentiment, Iraq's national security adviser, Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, on Tuesday said Iraq would not accept any security agreement with the United States unless it included dates for withdrawing troops.

This is… sorta’… embarrassing – since both President Bush and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain have pledged to quit the country should the Iraqis want us out.

One of the problems of the Bush-neoconservative blueprint for pacifying the Middle East is that it requires juggling many balls, Indian clubs, razor blades and vipers. Looks like there are far too many in the air at one time.

The follow-up act may not be dynamite, after all.