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Campaign Maveronomics
My Friends,
There's nothing like looking at how a candidate runs his campaign for clues about how he'll govern. and now, Straight-Talking War Hero John (callsign: "Maverick") McCain (he was tortured for his country, you know) has given us some insight into how he will balance the budget.
He'll cook the books. It's a fine old tradition of the Grand Party of Old.
As we've seen, McCain recently had a little chat with his peeps to assure them that if you add what he's raised to what the RNC raised, and compare it to Obama's fundraising plus the DNC's fundraising, he's ahead.
Or, more in more straight-talkerly terms, he's cooking the books and serving them up with a side of deep fried Enron to satisfy his worried base.
Now I don't want to minimize the seriousness of the fac that the DNC's fundraising continues to suck. I am somewhat worried that the protracted primary sucked a lot of money into the warchests of both candidates that would otherwise gone to the DNC. Let's face it: there's just some giving fatigue going and a lot of it was fueled by the high-octane adrenelene we were all running on until the poll closed. But I'm a lot more worried about the evident fact that Hillary's richest supporters seem to be among those having the hardest time getting to the end of the Kubler-Ross cycle. Candidates get small donations. Abstract enetities like the DNC and the RNC run off of big donations from people who don't think they're big donations. (And I haven't forgotten that an awful lot of them were making some pretty ugly threats about witholding that money from the party at various stages of the campaign.)
However, the fact remains that McCain is cooking the books. Head to head, Obama apparently continues to out-raise him. (Mav wouldn't be cooking the books if he were winning a head to head, right?) The Democratic nominee is out-raising the Republican. That means that an awful lot of rich Republicans cannot bring themselves to donate to McCain and are, instead, dumping cash into the RNC, and it means that McCain is not getting any love from the less rich Republicans. The party of "money talks, merit walks" can't bring themselves to put their money on McCain.
There's your "enthusiasm gap" in action folks.
But there's more.
They're talking like they think this is a good thing. Hopefully they really believe it.
McCain's outspending Obama 3:1 on TV ads because states Bush won, and he should be winning, are in play or are being lost by him. He is spending this money playing defense, not offense. And if Obama's spending ten million more a month than McCain while being outspent on TV 3:1, the question arises "where's it all going?" Well, it ain't going for beer and pretzels folks. Its going into the ground game. Its going, in other words, to lay the groundwork necessary to do to McCain nationwide what Bush did to Kerry in Ohio.
Back at the end of last month, Obama reopened all of his field offices here in NC, a state that's in play but hardly one where he's given a better than 50-50 chance. McCain doesn't even have an effing field office in North Carolina. North Carolina is an absolute must win state for him, its in play and he doesn't even have a single damn field office in the whole effing state. Here in the middle of the the second most conservative part of the state, I have seen exactly one McCain bumper sticker. I've actually seen more Obama stickers since the primary than I did before it. Christ, I still see more Bush-Cheney stickers than I do McCain stickers. Either through lack of enthusiasm, lack of a ground game or both, even the local twenty-eight percenters haven't even had the gumption to add a McCain sticker to their collection.
Superficially appealing though the notion probably is to Republican plutocrats, the objective of this thing is not to lose with a healthy bank balance.
It definitely cause for concern that the DNC continues to trail the RNC. Regardless of who does the giving, people need to start ponying up to the DNC. It can be hard to get yourself enthused about an abstract, and possibly not well-regarded entity like the party, but the 2010 midterms, and the all-important state legislative and gubernatorial races start on January 21, 2009. It is critical that Democrats dig in as deeply to every level of government in '08 as possible becuause the out of power party tends to improve in the midterms and 2010 is a census year. The GOP has already said its hoping that if it can't get itself voted back into power, maybe they can gerrymander themselves back into power without actually having to make a majority of the people vote for them.
And, of course, if Obama's money spigot dries up, we're all hosed. But it's just plain stupid to start doing the the Democrat Chicken Little Dance because McCain did some Enron accounting and manufactured a number bigger than the one he manufactured for Obama. Especially when the reason he's finally got some beans and bullets stored up in the supply dump to boast about is because he's got no soldiers in the trenches to eat those beans or shoot the bullets.








Comments (10)
Doh! Didn't close the last "a" tag.
And what the heck happened to those little tagging buttons, anyway?
July 10, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Way to kick ass, Former NCSteve.
This:
from DailyKos, is supporting evidence for your claims.
July 10, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This sounds about right to me. I know I gave very little last month because 1) I had very little to give and 2) the end of the primary season made the need seem less urgent. Now that the battle between McCain and Obama has begun to take shape I have donated twice again this month (bet Bush never anticipated that when he called for stimulus checks to be sent out). Hopefully this will hold true for others as well.
July 10, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
RNC + McCain + Two Congressional Commmittees
versus
DNC + Obama + Two Congressional Committees
At the end of 2007, the Democrats were ahead; at the end of March the Democrats were ahead. I haven't been able to extract the numbers for the second quarter yet and won't be able to until the June figures are available.
This doesn't seem to me to be cause for hand-wringing. The GOP fundraising is down; McCain is the worst fundraiser imaginable and he'll be limited anyway after his convention.
And, yes, we need to donate money to these Dem folks. We also need to contact the campaign and start the volunteer process for field work. That is starting up in Missouri and we need all hands on deck.
Donate. Volunteer. Vote.
July 10, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I cannot afford to give right now, but am volunteering my time. We are registering voters here in the bluest parts of the bluest city in the state. If I can keep my utility usage down I may be able to donate more next month.
July 11, 2008 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
And you're doing exactly what is needed, Larry. We have a whole swath of UNPAID folks who made a difference in the primary and who plan to take up the general with their hard-earned knowledge. You are part of the field operations that will make the difference in the upcoming general election.
July 11, 2008 1:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
You make some good points. Personally, I'm not hand wringing but not taking anything for granted either. Giving all I can and fundraising as well - having a party in the backyard with live music. the tools are all available on the BO website. Check it out.
I brought this up in the main EC thread about this...is it really true that the RNC is going to put ALL of its money in to the presidential race? I understand it's very important, but are they still willing to put all their eggs in that basket? Cuz the Senate and Congressional Committees are desperate for money. The RNC is just going to say, you're on your own??
Anyway, I'll give to the DNC tomorrow. I just got an official request in the mail. Plus they scored points with me with their McCain Iraq commercial this week. Good stuff.
July 11, 2008 1:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in NC as well (though a bluer part) and you're right, I've never seen a McCain sticker or yard sign. I still see old Bush stickers, and I've talked to plenty of Republicans during voter reg, but it seems like no one cares enough about McCain to put a sticker on their car. I never even noticed the absence until you pointed it out.
July 11, 2008 7:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Without making this too much of a "me too" thread, me too. Even in bluer-than-blue Chapel Hill/Carrboro, there were some demonstrations of Republican support in '00 and '04. Haven't seen a single McCain sign or sticker here - or anywhere in the Triangle, for that matter. Obama signs continue to bloom, as do Obama volunteers. While I know the race will be close, I have felt all along that NC polling doesn't get at the "on the ground" dynamic. I say this especially b/c I saw what happened here in May, and I know that the University crowd is quiet right now (Chapel Hill loses about half its population in the summer). Those "Obama Kids," as my undergrads call them(selves) are a force to be reckoned with, and I expect them to have a real impact on the NC campaign come this fall.
Since Obama started making appearances here in March, it's been clear to me that McCain was ignoring NC at his peril. Advertising doesn't create turnout. If nothing else, the Obama campaign already has a huge advantage in NC because the primary taught them how to work the state's "One Stop" Early Voting for substantial gain.
July 11, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you live anywhere IL-13 (suburban Chicago) in Will, DuPage and part of Cook counties Scott Harper's campaign is holding the biggest canvassing event (door knocking) this district has ever seen by a Dem candidate this Sunday. It's called 13 for the 13th.
We're going to knock on doors and spread the word about not just Scott but all our Dem candidates up and down the ballot in our coordinated campaign in all 13 townships in the 13th district on the 13th.
We'll meet up at various places thru out the district at 12:30PM. We'll canvass from 1 til about 3:30 and then afterward at 4pm we're having a big bbq and rally in Bolingbrook. If you live anywhere in the area it's a great way to get involved. You can sign up at the above. It's gonna be a lot of fun and you'll get to meet other folks determined to elect more and better Democrats and those candidates themselves.
July 11, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
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