But does it matter?

This election is not going to be about John McCain's relative lack of glamour - in fact that could work FOR him if voters buy the theme that he's all flash and McCain's more genuine - especially if the Dems cling to their usual theme of being the nice guys and don't go wading in doing a GOP style demolition job.
This election is going to be principally about the price and supply of oil. Last time I checked 67% of Americans don't believe that climate change is man made.
The Dems' energy policy is based on carbon reduction.
The great majority of Americans WANT offshore drilling. And if they don't believe, as the Dems do, that it's necessary to the planet's survival to get away from oil - if they only believe that it's necessary to get away from dependence on foreign sources of oil - then, especially if you're one of the many families struggling to survive, why the hell would you vote for `Dr No` when you could vote for `Senator Yes`?

Check out the latest Pew research on it - it is SO ominous. We're not only dealing with the traditional `Reagan democrat` - this is young people, educated people, latte liberals - changing their minds.

"Much of the increase in support for energy exploration has come among groups that previously viewed this as a less important priority than energy conservation - young people, liberals, independents, Democrats, women and people who have attended college.

Fully half of people ages 18 to 29 (51%) now say expanding energy exploration is a more important priority for energy policy than increasing energy conservation and regulation; only about a quarter of young people (26%) expressed this view in February. The proportion of liberals who say expanded energy exploration is the more important priority also has doubled (from 22% to 45%).

The gender gap in attitudes about whether greater exploration or greater conservation is the more important priority has disappeared, as women have become much more supportive of expanded exploration (up 18 points).

Similarly, more independents (19 points) and Democrats (16 points) view increased energy exploration as the more important priority. About the same proportions of Democrats (46%) and Republicans (43%) now say expanded exploration, rather than increased conservation, should take precedence; in February, far more Republicans than Democrats expressed this view...+17 of college graduates have changed their mind since the beginning of the year."
(http://people-press.org/report/433/gas-prices)
The ground has shifted in a cataclysmic way since the beginning of the primaries.
It's going to take another new, equally seimsmic shift in either the material conditions against which this election is fought, OR in Obama's/Democrat policies, for McCain not to romp home. (Bearing in mind also that the majority of Americans think that voting for Obama is a much riskier proposition than voting for McCain. Then add on to that the racist factor.)

The way the grounds of this election have shifted is a nightmare.

I think I'm far firma on terra than the people who think Obama has it in the bag, Mandy.

I didn't posit the the electorate is young and educated. I was pointing out that part of Obama's base - the young and now many educated - are switching away from supporting conservation policies and are for offshore drilling.

Mandy, I think that most swing voters aren't very political (by definition - if they were, they wouldn't be swing). To me that means they vote usually on their hip pocket. In America, they also vote on values.

I don't think anyone who believes Obama has control of this election is taking enough account of how the situation's changed since the primaries began. Because of the surge being seen as successful, the war isn't the pro-Demo issue it was: it's far less important. In fact now it seems from recent polling that most Americans agree with McCain's position on it.

The primary issue is energy/oil independence.

And the GOP's on the right side of it. Obama isn't.

Add to that, since Wright and `bittergate` blow up, Obama won't get those values voters that the GOP are so repulsively good at exploiting.

I think many people forget how shallow his lead is and this is before the campaign gets going in earnest and the GOP attack machine & 527's get into full swing. Think about it: how massive the generic democrat lead was over the repugs at the beginning of the primaries.

Look at all the polling/research: the majority of Americans are not behind a climate change policy
that will affect their already suffering standard of living and they are strongly pro offshore drilling. Nothing will get them to the polls more strongly than to vote for - they think - reducing gas prices, or at least someone who seems to be trying to.

(I do agree I was perhaps slightly over the top suggesting McCain will get a blow out. But I can't imagine him losing unless something extraordinary happens from now on to change the election as drastically as the energy blowout did.)