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What if? How the Democratic Party dodged a bullet this week

One of the things that kept occurring to me this Saturday during the RBC meeting was how fortunate the Democratic Party is right now. The RBC meeting of the DNC was uncomfortable in many ways, what with protesters inside and outside. People squirmed a little here and there. But overall, it was a fairly painless affair.

But imagine for a moment what it could have been: what if Hillary had done better in the primary and caucus elections? What if she won 2-3 more delegates per state contest? Ok, winning another 100 or more pledged delegates is harder than it sounds. But just imagine for a moment a scenario heading into Saturday in which Clinton was not behind Obama by 150 pledged delegates - but instead was behind by less than 20.

Now what does the RBC do? And try to picture the protests and counter-protests that could have been this Saturday. It could have been really ugly.

The Democratic Party has to undertake a major reform of the primary process for selecting their nominee for President.

A start for the reforms would be:
- Abolish the superdelegates
- Hold only primaries - no caucuses, no hybrids,
- Each state mandates that Republicans are not allowed to vote in Democratic primaries
- Come to an agreeable compromise on who will be the early voting states (I'm in favor of rotating regionally). 
 
We can't risk this sort of debacle again. Ewspecailly when you consider the alternate reality of an even closer election. 

Let's fix it before we regret it. 


Comments (97)

To all Clinton supporters, I would just like to pre-empt your comments with a big hug* and say I'm sorry that your preferred candidate lost.


*some exclusions apply: hug not redeemable if you're voting for John McCain, if you like the Michigan Wolverines, if you prefer green olives to black olives, and if Celine Dion is in your Ipod.

All I can say to this, my bat-eared octacentagenarian friend is, Go blue!

Consumed you, the dark side has.

I think at tonight's rally everyone should stand up and sing:

Hail to the victors valient
Hail to the conquering heroes!

And then the spirit of Bo Schembechler will come down and bless us all. Bo-mentum!

I'll allow the singing of Hail to the Victors (especially since you haven't heard that tune after an OSU-Mich game for quite some time) at the victory party if you'll agree to have the OSU marching band do "Script Obama." Sound good?

Deal. Now THAT'S unity.

Hey, at least Michigan managed to beat Florida..

Excellent and highly rec'd post. Saturday could have, indeed, been so much uglier than it was. And your added comment gives you a .5 Recommend, if only there was such a thing.

Very true. The superdelegates have, in the past, been a moderating influence on the Democratic party. It's an influence that I think they should shed.

Sensible ideas in post and, LisB, good wit.

Thanks, and can I just add, firstly, that I meant no offense when I called you a garden frog the other day. I was commenting on your avatar, which, alas, I can no longer see. WTF is up with my computer these days, I don't know, but right now you are a rectangle with a red x in the corner (as you've been since Saturday). Did you change your avatar, wwstaebler?

I'd also like to add, secondly, that I first heard of a regional primary a few days ago, here at TPM by another poster whose name I really wish I could remember, and I liked it.

This poster said that each region could hold a primary election per week, and within a month and one week, we could have our primary over. Each region could start first, the next 4th year.

I think that's a very fair and reasonable solution.

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Agreed, reform is long over due. I'd just like to add that there was an acceptable compromise this year as to who would be the early voting states. The problem has always been the DNC being unwilling to enforce the rules against NH or Iowa. If NH had been sanctioned for moving its date from third to first its likely that Iowa, SC and MI would not have changed their dates.

Whoa, excellent point!

I like this thread. Keep the good points and ideas coming, folks, because I don't think we need another primary like this one again, anytime soon.

I would add, more or less ad nauseam

  • the number of delegates from each state = 10x the number of seats it has in the House of Representatives
  • Delegates are awarded on statewide results, not by districts or some other region within the state

Awarding delegates by congressional district makes sense and does not make the contest any less fair. In states like TN with one liberal distrct in a conservative state it is only fair to give the votes in the nineth distrct controll of their delegates.

BTW I live in the blue corner of this red state.

From my perspective that actually penalizes the candidate whose support is concentrated in fewer districts. A vote is a vote is a vote.

For example, in Indiana, Clinton received 50.5567% of the vote, and there were 72 pledged delegates to be awarded. 72 * 50.5567% = 36.4. As the winner of the state, I believe she should get the benefit of rounding. or 37 delegates. In fact, she received 38. I know it's just one delegate, but I think being given 37 would be a more accurate representation of the support she received.

Figures courtesy of CNN

After all, with the exception of Nebraska & Maine, all states award their electoral votes on a statewide basis.

I'm not saying it should be winner take all -- at least not until the field gets winnowed down to 2 candidates who are winning more than a certain percentage -- but I think the primaries should otherwise try to track the GE as much as possible.

AFAIK the number of delegates a district gets is based on how many votes the Democrat got in the previous Presidential election. This gives districts that are loyal to the Democrats more pull.

Makes sense to me.

Unfortunately the DNC doesn't really have the power to force states to switch to "Closed" primaries.

For example in Virginia we don't have any means of declaring one party or another when we register to vote so it would be impossible to close the primary without changing state law a good bit.

I realize this is something that is probably lleast likey to happen - because it would ahve to be dealt with from state to state. I probably shouldn't have included, but I wasn't really dealing with what's possible, just what SHOULD be done.

I guess I don't understand why not.

If the DNC can penalize states for not holding their primaries/caucuses on a certain date (or within a range of dates), I don't see why the DNC can't say if you have an open primary, you get 0 delegates.

But if your state voter registration does not indicate party (is this true in VA?) how do you do it practically? Have a separate registration process?

It's that way in Washington too. It's a heavily defended (bi-partisan defense) state law that there is no registration by party.

In fact, starting this year the primaries will no longer nominate each parties representatives in the general. Everyone is on the same ballot and the top 2 in each race go on to the general regardless of party.

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I guess I'm in the minority here, but I'm pretty impressed with the democratic nominating process. As I mentioned in another post, a relatively unknown but immensely dynamic and talented politician beat the most powerful couple in our party. What could be more democratic than that?

Yes, our system has flaws. We saw those flaws magnified because one of the candidates felt so entitled to the nomination, she tried to overturn the whole process, even though it was clear she couldn't surpass Obama's delegate count in Feb/March. Had the DNC stuck to the rules regarding MI and FL, and had the party and superdelegates had the balls to stand up to the Clintons when it was clear she couldn't win, things would have gone a lot smoother.

Again, I admit there are flaws. It went on too long and the Clintons have been out of control.

But Obama is about to win this thing. Has it been rough? Yes.
But let's not be naive. We all knew supporting the first black American candidate wasn't going to be a day at the beach. There was bound to be serious divisiveness, even if the Clintons didn't exacerbate the situation.


But I digress.

Anyway, aren't the losers the ones who are supposed to blame the process?


Wouldn't it be great if Obama (rather than Clinton) was the one who declared that the party needs to study the primary process intently in 2009 and come up with recommendations for reform?

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I agree -- the weird rules, with small states voting first, are designed to allow someone with less name recognition than a former first lady to win the nomination. If *anyone* had to compete in every state, including the largest, all at once, no one new could ever run for president; it'd be far too expensive.

It may be a little strange that Republicans are allowed to vote in some state primaries, and caucuses might well give some extra weight towards candidates who can really motivate their bases, but that doesn't sound so bad to me.

Yoda, just wondering if you have seen a very similar essay by Publius over at ObWi? The comments on this subject are worth checking out too (as they generally are), if you haven't...

I hadn't seen that but it is very similar. I guess "dodged a bullet" is a popular phrase for the RBC meeting and the alternate reality of a closer race.

I don't see the need for the changes you're suggesting.

Why should Iowa be forced to give up their caucus? Caucuses didn't cause a problem and they're actually very good for building community and connections between activists.

As long as the only meaningful choices in November are members of two parties, I think that voters who aren't party members should be able to vote an opinion on the candidates. Yeah, it's crappy that some Republicans apparently swung margin in Ohio and maybe elsewhere, but I don't think those actions are worth attempting to close the primary to those who aren't party members. As long as everyone can only vote in one primary, I think the damage is minimal. Again, if it's not close, it's not an issue.

I don't have a strong opinion on getting rid of the superdelegates. Perhaps their number could be reduced. Their effect is only noticeable when the election is close, and if it's close it'll be contentious no matter what the system is. Getting rid of superdelegates won't fix the issue of what to do if it's very close again.

The problem with regional primary groupings is the same as what we have now. How do you decide who goes first? Someone will get an advantage, and someone will be disadvantaged no matter how you do it. Rotating them doesn't solve the problem because Mrs. Smith isn't going to be able to wait for 4-5 cycles for it to come around to benefit her. Who goes first, and who decides?

National primaries, which you didn't mention but which solve the "who goes first" problem, have a big problem of their own: Unless there's public financing and lots of time for Q&A and so forth before the vote, the candidate who has the most money and name recognition will clean up and knock out challengers very early. A benefit of the long campaign this year is that we know how the 3 of them react under stress. We wouldn't have that if everyone voted on just a very few days, or one day.

Yes, it could have been much worse, but it also might not have happened at all. The problem this year is that the race was very close for a long time. The RBC meeting didn't have to happen at all - they could have said, "Look, we decided this months ago. Case closed." They didn't because the race was very close. That doesn't happen very often.

I would want to see much more detail before arguing that big changes are necessary in the Democratic primary / caucus system. Remember that PACs were designed to be a fix for the broken political donation system and give small donors an equal voice. We see how that turned out...

My $0.02.

I think of all the reforms needed, by far the most important is the need to abolish the superdelegates.

Also, if the candidates agree with the DNC on a penality given to a state (say for moving a primary up too early), then those candidates should have to sign some sort of pledge not to participate in that state's primary. Doh!

Circle-jerk, eh?

Yeah, I feel it too. Let's keep it the way it is.

Yoda,

I respect your posts but I have significant issues with this one:

- Abolish the superdelegates

Sorry, can't agree. I think the Dem Primaries is a great mix of having the party elders steer the ship with a healthy dollop of popular opinion weighed in. In fact, the superdelegates are merely a safety valve... and you want to keep safety valves in place. They will go, for the most part, with the popular vote, but you need them for the rare times they don't.

- Hold only primaries - no caucuses, no hybrids,

Again, nope. There is nothing wrong with state tradition. Frankly, I think I would prefer to live in a state with caucuses. There is no reason to homogenize things.

- Each state mandates that Republicans are not allowed to vote in Democratic primaries

Here we agree. I have no problem with a mix of closed or open to Indies voting, but if you are GOP, then you have no business voting in a Dem primary.

- Come to an agreeable compromise on who will be the early voting states (I'm in favor of rotating regionally).

Again, I disagree. I've lived in states near the start of the queue and at the back end. (Ironically, this is the one year that CA should have left themselves at the end!) You need states with traditions of going early. I think this year the "first four" were a good mix. Consistency is important for planning.

And let's be honest, it's good to keep the big states out of it early on -- since they are guaranteed of getting attention later. And now we do have rough regional coverage.

This call for primary reform is a reaction to the so-call "MI/FL debacle". But the fact remains that MI and FL broke rules and didn't pay enough of the consequences. We all know Hillary wouldn't have cared seating any of the delegates if she had won SuperTuesday and would have made a nice magnanimous gesture of seating them if she was the heir apparent. I'm sure that was the original plan.

The battle came when not counting them upset one of the candidates.

We will see more jockeying next time for sure -- states hoping to break rules in the promise of duking it out later. That's just bad form and bad discipline.

One way of dealing with the issue is for the DNC to forbid any candidate from putting their name on a ballot of a rouge state without suffering penalties.

Only in Hillaryland are rules (and promises to obey them) made to be broken.

I think the inherit problem with superdelegates is that it has the potential for theoverrulling of the voters' choice in candidate. I believe in "one person one vote" and the notion of superdelegates is patently undemocratic.

Hey - why stop at presidential primaries? Aren't Senate candidates too important to leave the chance that primary voters might not make "the right" choice? What about Governors? What about candidates for the state legislature? Maybe state parties should ahve ultimate control of who wins the primiares? Ok - none of that's going to happen, i'm just trying to show how ridiculous the SDs are.

But the bigger point is that getting rid of SDs will avoid the future scenario in the primary where we're arguing about popular vote and electibility, etc, etc. And who's to say that superdelegates are these all knowing and wise persons who will make "the right" choice. The idea is they'll prevent someone who is unelectable or unacceptable to the Democratic Party for the GE - but the SD are flawed just as voters are and they could choose the candidate who's less electable.

Political parties aren't in the business of being democratic. They are in the business of putting up candidates that support their platform and that they think can win.

They can chose any of their candidates (including Senators, etc.) any way they want to.

Your option is to vote for or against their candidates... or set up your own party.

Also, for what it's worth: we do not live in the "one person/one vote" country. We are in a Republic -- a representational democracy. The founders didn't trust the mob...and that makes just as much sense now as back then.

The problem with SDs is not that they get disproportionate power...well OK that is a huge problem for a democrat (small d). the problem is that they can game the system for their own personal benefit in a way no other individual voter can.

That's because they get to control the timing of their vote. They can extract promises--and frankly money, even if it is just campaign cash-- by endorsing early or they can wait until it is personally strategic.

If you keep SDs then you have to do something to keep them from gaming the system. Make them declare at the same time their state votes.

One way of dealing with the issue is for the DNC to forbid any candidate from putting their name on a ballot of a rouge state without suffering penalties.

Not always feasible, CT. In Florida, for example, I believe a candidate must have his or her name on a party's primary ballot in order to appear on the GE ballot. Surely part of the reason why none of the Democratic candidates this year were willing to remove their names from the Florida primary when several gladly did so from the Michigan primary, no?

Interesting point, I didn't know this. I wonder if it's written into the State constitutions, or it's just a rule from the state party... in which case the national party might be able to make a national rule change.

I agree with most of this, but for keeping Super Delegates (for the reasons Yoda mentions) and barring republicans from voting in the democratic primary. I think all primaries or caucuses should be open to all voters or at least be like Virginia, which doesn't require a declaration.

There are a large number of Obamicans this year who stay republican out of pride and understanding that historically republicans have been every bit as (and sometimes more) progressive than a lot of democratic presidents. If someone on the model of Teddy Roosevelt was running against Hillary Clinton, I would change my registration as well.

We need to leave the nominating process up to all Americans. I actually think the party dominated process, as we have come to know it, has been one of our main downfalls as a nation. There must have been a reason why parties aren't in the Constitution as being integral to the election process. I can't quite figure out what law or statute or Constitutional amendment gives the DNC or the RNC the power to dictate who we get to vote for in presidential elections.

I think the whole thing needs to be looked at from a Constitutional perspective. It's whole process for both parties is a disaster when it comes to transparency and accountability. Further, it is mean to further insider domination of Washington. We'll never truly get back to government of the people, by the people and for the people until we put all political parties in their place, which is behind the American people, not in front.

The problem with thinking of the SDs as a safety valve is that we assume they have good judgment and a tiny bit of courage. Obviously, that's not always the case. At the very least, I think superdelegates should only be elected officials, not DNC members.

The problem with thinking of the SDs as a safety valve is that we assume they have good judgment and a tiny bit of courage. Obviously, that's not always the case. At the very least, I think superdelegates should only be elected officials, not DNC members.

I would add that, courtesy of Senator Kennedy, there's technically no such thing as pledged delegates. All delegates are free to vote as they choose on the first ballot. So they're as capable of being a safety-valve in an emergency situation as the supers. In fact, you can make an argument that in a true emergency situation, they're more likely to act as a safety valve.

Although the Clinton demonstrators had enough passion and vitriol to make for good news it really looked as if there weren't all that many of them - so that was a good thing.

As far as your suggestions I agree on closed/semi-closed primaries. Not up for the malevolent "throw" votes.

But I'm tired of everyone talking about getting rid of caucuses just because Hillary didn't win them. They are traditional and encourage active participation with your neighbors and in your party. They allow you to just be quiet, vote and leave if you prefer, plus they give everyone the chance to become a delegate.

Superdelegates? Ambivalent.

Early states? Probably best to have some variety but I like that Iowa goes first. Call me a romantic or traditionalist or whatever but it's a quaint tradition. It would be like Christmas without a tree to have it start elsewhere.

ARGH!

ME KNOW A LANDLUBBER WHEN I RUNS HIM THROUGH!

YODA OH JEDI KNIGHT
YOU MISS THE ROAD OF WENCH HILLARY'S PLIGHT
SHE WON ALL THE IMPORTANT FIGHTS
SHE'S MY WENCH:
HILLARY CLINTON!

LET'S MAKE A RULE: ONLY WENCH HILLARY'S VOTERS COUNT. THE REST WE TEAR UP THE BALLOT AND MAKE CONFETTI FOR WENCH HILLARY'S VICTORY PARTY.

YES! THAT'S THE DEMOCRATIC TICKET!

ACQUIRE! MERGE! MARAUD! DILUTE! DILUTE!

ARGH!

I'm going to both agree and disagree.

Get rid of superdelegates, yes. At the beginning of the primary process, Hillary had a completely unearned major boost from the SDs, especially until the news orgs started reporting pledged dels and SDs separately. If it hadn't been for SDs, Obama would have been ahead from the very beginning and the perception of the race would have been different.

Now at the end, the SDs are dragging their feet, artificially keeping the process in Limbo. Even now, Hillary is spouting nonsense about how SDs might switch to her and give her the nomination (and technically she is right).

The superdelegates have been an unmitigated disaster. Not only they are IMO a bad idea to begin with, they aren't even doing their job.

But I don't agree about streamlining the process. One of the cool things about the US is that states have relatively high degree of independence. So what I would say is this: who are you to tell states how they should run their nomination process?

I don't see anything wrong with assigning each state a number of delegates and letting the state apportion the delegates in any way it sees fit.

However, I believe the DNC should penalize candidates who are trying to undermine the nomination process. Hillary should have been docked delegates for constantly trying to invent her own rules.

A side thought - in theory at least, the SDs could have decided things without deciding anything: they could have resigned. Had the last 150 SDs simply signed an affidavit (is that the right term) that they weren't going to vote in the first round at the convention, this would have been over many weeks ago.

I mean, if it's so hard for them to decide who to support, why not just formally declare "no preference"?

Oh, one more point. Having the nomination process go from January to August is a Bad Idea. Start later, end sooner, or both.

And make sure you never, ever have six weeks of black void between voting in two states.

Yeah - it might help voter turnout if Iowa and NH weren't holding elections in the dead of winter.

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The two big problems were the MI/FL mess, and the superdelegates.

1.MI/FL should have been dealt with in a more decisive fashion. The RNC halved Florida's delegates and stuck to it. Their threat was credible. The DNC's stripping of all deleggates was untenable.

I also agree on some sort of rotation of early states.

2. The other big problem, perhaps the bigger one, is the superdelegates. Without them, it would have been a simple delegate race, and whoever had the most wins. Because of the SD, it became a big sales pitch and mroe about spin and arugments and backroom deals. This corrupted the process.

Caucuses are not the problem -- and are a good measure of enthusiasm, versus, say, name recognition or tv ad budgets. Republicans voting is not a problem either -- I think stealing GOP voters should be the goal. I think states should still be allowed to choose their local process however they choose.

If there were no superdelegates, I think most of these other problems would have been minimal. It's because of the temptation to steal the nomination via SDs that we heard months of endless bullshit about primary states, big states, momentum, white voters, etc. etc.

DNC: GET RID OF THE SUPERDELEGATES!!!!!!

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I'd also like to add, secondly, that I first heard of a regional primary a few days ago, here at TPM by another poster whose name I really wish I could remember, and I liked it.

This poster said that each region could hold a primary election per week, and within a month and one week, we could have our primary over. Each region could start first, the next 4th year.

That kind of frontloading is a recipe for electing
the presumptive frontrunner with the most fundraising cash before any votes have been cast. Regional primaries are a good idea but spread them out over a series of months. If they are a week apart the first winner steamrolls to victory. That's not an improvement.


Thanks everyone for weighing in with your opinions.

Let me tackle two of the issues that have been brought up: caucuses and Republicans voting in the Dem primary.

1. Caucuses. For those who don't know, I've got an Obama bumper sticker and so I realize that the caucuses have been very very good to the next President of the United States. But I'm also the father to two small children and my wife and I both work. If the caucus is held at 7pm and one of our kids is sick or we have needs with one of our jobs, it could be challenging to attend. If my home state said that primary voting would be available only from 7-9pm, election advocates and the NAACP would be filing lawsuits and shouting disenfranchisement. The caucuses are unique and a different way to hold an election - but we should be making elections as open and accessible as possible...

2. ...except in the case of Republicans voting in a Democratic primary (or vice versa). Independents can certainly choose which ballot to participate in. But even this doesn't bar Republicans from voting in the primary - if they are truly excited by the Democratic candidates they could change their registration to Dem or independent. This is what we want to encourage. Otherwise, if you're a Republican you can always vote for the Democratic candidate in the general election. But ultimately, the DNC cannot control this - it's a state by state issue.

Good reading over at HuffPost: on the caucus system and how it delivered the nomination to Obama: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/03/obamas-debt-to-harold-ick_n_104829.html

The number that caught my eye was that 2-8% of the Democratic electorate votes in a caucus. That's compelling evidence in my opinion to do away with them. (although the superdelegates are by far the biggest problem in the process).

How did caucuses "deliver the nomination to Obama"? What exactly was preventing Hillary from doing well in caucuses? Please explain that to me.

I'm actually going to strongly disagree with you on this. Do you really think that going with the establishment candidate every single time is a good idea? Do you really believe that Dems should have nominated Hillary? I would argue that caucuses are a great way to test the candidates' message, as opposed to fundraising skills or insider connections.

codegen86,

I am an Obama supporter. I'm not saying that Obama stole the election though caucuses but it is undeniable that he built a delegate lead in large part by trouncing Hillary in caucus states.

That doesn't make it illegitimate - those were the rules of the election this year and the Obama camp played and won by the rules.

I don't think that doing away with caucuses helps the establishment candidate. Hell, I actually haven't ever voted for the estblishment Democratic candidate. But that doesn't mean I want to maintain an undemocratic system jsut to benefit candidates I prefer. IMO, caucuses go against the principle of "one person, one vote" and have the potentiel to essentially disenfranchise potential voters.

Two points--some academic did a study and felt the caucuses actually hurt Obama--those states were ones he would win and suppressed his popular vote totals. Secondly, I don't think one person/one vote applies in the primaries--they are not elections they are nomination processes to pick the best candidate, and primaries themselves favor the candidate with the name recognition and machinery at his or her disposal. But this person isn't necessarily the best candidate. I think the system has to account for that bias somehow.

I think the point of the study, if I'm thinking of the same one, is that it hurt Obama in the so called popular vote arguement. But he was helped by winnging more delegates through caucus votes. (Texas a good example - he loses the primary but wins the caucus and ends up with more delegates).

I know that we won't ever have caucuses in the South because of the appearanace of the disenfranchisement of working class voters. I think the big turnouts in the Dem primaries is only a good thing for the 50 state stratgey, I'm not sure that caucuses really build the party though since it's mostly existing Dem party activists.

I don't think one person/one vote applies in the primaries--they are not elections they are nomination processes to pick the best candidate

Hear, hear! I wish I has been as eloquent stating this same point.

I don't think one person/one vote applies in the primaries--they are not elections they are nomination processes to pick the best candidate

I think then we're back more at the problems with superdelegates than a caucus, in this argument. So for instance, do you feel it would be legal for the Democratic Party superdelegates to decide that a Latino candidate is not an appropriate choice for winning in the general election (because of anti-immigrant sentiment in the country) and chose a white candidate instead even though the Latino received more votes and delegates? (this is exactly what happened in Democratic primaries in the South in what were called the "white primaries" http://texaspolitics.laits.utexas.edu/glossary/index.php?term=white%20primary).

What's wrong with letting voters decide? And if we want voters to decide who the best nominee is for the general election, why place any kind of checks or restrictions on that power? A caucus is a high hurrdle for some families to participate in.

do you feel it would be legal for the Democratic Party superdelegates to decide that a Latino candidate is not an appropriate choice for winning in the general election (because of anti-immigrant sentiment in the country) and chose a white candidate instead even though the Latino received more votes and delegates?

Of course it's legal! If I don't like their decision, I can vote for another candidate from another party.

Do you think it's legal that Hollywood tends to cast hot, young actors? They are trying to sell a product -- just as any political party is trying to "sell" their product (general platform).

What is illegal is to prevent someone from running. However, no political party is required to help someone run. These are two different concepts.

What's wrong with letting voters decide? And if we want voters to decide who the best nominee is for the general election, why place any kind of checks or restrictions on that power?

You are confusing what it means to vote here. You don't have any legal right to vote in your party -- that's for the party to decide. If you don't like it, you don't have to join the party.

Unlike other countries, you don't have to belong to a political party. This is the reason why the party decides how much input it wants from you. Political parties that don't get enough popular support die. That's how that problem is taken care of. It's quite different than a governing body which is much more difficult to change if it doesn't have popular support.

Frankly, I don't want everyone deciding what is right. You hope for a balance between some popular sentiment and enlightened wisdom. The general population, taken as a whole, doesn't have the latter. This is precisely the reason why race and gender become part of the campaign -- because the general population tends to worry about things like race and gender.

The present system for the Dems is an amazing mix of inputs. In a general sense the SuperDels are like the Senate and the primaries are like the House. Both sides mix and represent.

If you click on the link above regarding the white primaries of the South, you'll see that while the political parties do have a lot of power in how they select a nominee, voters still have some basic rights. The party can't set up a system that disenfranchises a group of people in the primary, in this case based on race.

There aren't really many options for us in the ole USA either - a two party system doesn't exactly leave you with many choices if you don't like your party.

We just have to disagree on this one. My basic position is that I don't think we need a bunch a party elites overruling the people - I think the people can do just a fine job themselves in a primary election to select the best nominee.


There aren't really many options for us in the ole USA either - a two party system doesn't exactly leave you with many choices if you don't like your party.

I suggest you look at the politics of the 1850s to see how the GOP was formed when the Whigs weren't doing their jobs in keeping people happy and the Dems were split over the slavery issue. I highly recommend James McPherson's book BATTLE CRY OF FREEDOM which has an excellent discussion of this topic (and very readable as well).

When enough people are truly dissatisfied things will happen. What you are seeing is that people are more or less satisfied as present.

PS Your party "elites" are the people truly vested with the political party. They are professionals and do things like ensure money comes in, organizations are formed, etc. on a very large scale.

I have no problem with the executive team at a company having more influence than the general stockholders.

Most people at TPM (that I can discern) are not truly party insiders and therefore we should have less say than those insiders. It's possible to become an insider if you like, but at a sacrifice to other parts of your life -- and that's why you get more privileges as an insider.

PPS Yoda: Thanks for the interesting civil discourse. I'm pretty sure we didn't convince each other of anything, but we did have a discussion anyway!

Likewise. It would be boring here if we all agreed about everything.

If we were legislators in the state of TPMopia, one of us would propose a study commission on these issues.

What the Smurfette said. Caucuses are not heavily skewed towards the candidate with the biggest name recognition - not like primaries are. That is a good thing!

Why did Obama trounce Hillary in caucuses? Wasn't that at least partly because Hillary made a strategic blunder and ignored caucus states?

I really don't understand the notion of caucuses being "undemocratic". Isn't talking to other people and trying to convince them of your viewpoint the best form of democracy?

Isn't talking to other people and trying to convince them of your viewpoint the best form of democracy?

That's fine if you're running for town hall.

Plus, why should people be kept out of the process because they work nights, are sick (or have a sick family member), etc?

Huh? No one has automatic right to vote in party primaries.

Why can't Republicans vote in most Dem primary contests?

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The "caucuses are not democratic" argument was CURIOUSLY never raised until Hillary fell far behind because of her inability to be competitive in that process. So it is sort of like an ice skater saying, after the fact, that compulsories are "unfair" to those who are better that the free skate. Too bad! As long as caucuses are a part of the process, whining about them being undemocratic is nothing more than sour grapes.

The caucuses are unique and a different way to hold an election - but we should be making elections as open and accessible as possible...

I concur (it also looks pretty odd in those states that have both a primary and a caucus, when the primary has 3-4x number of voters as the caucus).

I also don't like the threshold support rules that many caucuses have. 14% of the vote shouldn't be treated as 0%.

Excellent ideas.

I'm surprised to see people stand up for the caucuses. The defenses can be boiled down to: they're fun, they build community, and they're traditional.

Problem is, I think it's more important that our selection process is truly democratic (one vote per party member on a private ballot) and that it encourages participation by as many party members as possible (it should not demand too much of people's time).

And really, I don't think the existence of caucuses (or not) would have swung the election. Were there no caucuses, both campaigns would have used different tactics.

But there's one thing we do know: Absent caucuses we would have an actual, accurate tally of the popular vote. That would have ended a lot of lunacy before it started.

But if you really want popular vote to decide the candidate, why not just go ahead and say so outright?

I think using popular vote for selecting candidates is not such a good idea in a country where popular vote isn't used for selecting presidents, but maybe that's just me.

But our current process doesn't resemble the general election at all.

I think it's more important that our selection process is truly democratic

In my opinion, caucuses provide a MORE democratic way of choosing a candidate. Participants usually get the opportunity to vote for their second and even third choices when their first choice is not viable.

I agree that it is not a particularly democratic practice to allow IA and NH such perpetually inappropriate influence. However, at the same time, giving candiates the opportunity to demonstrate their electability in part of the country before being voted upon by the country at large has its advantages, too.

The most workable plan I have seen would divide the country into four (or so) groups of states, each group with more or less equal electoral weight, and have them vote two weeks apart. The order would change every four years.

How do we feel about this idea?

In my opinion, caucuses provide a MORE democratic way of choosing a candidate. Participants usually get the opportunity to vote for their second and even third choices when their first choice is not viable.

"Viability" is, IMO, the least democratic part of a caucus. Voter X's first choice doesn't vote because Candidate X received 14.9%; Voter Y's first choice does count because candidate Y received 15.1%.

I don't understand your objection. You dislike dropping the candidate who garners the lowest number of votes?

How many people who are defending a caucus have participated in one? (I have not)

I haven't either. Anecdotal evidence suggests that people who participated in caucuses enjoyed the experience.

I have, in MN in 2004. It was crazy but fun. It made you feel like a real part of the process and of the party.

I'm from MN and generally a supporter of caucuses. They are quirky and do have their downside. There is no doubt that the state party tends to pick candidates far more liberal than our population and we have lost quite a few elections because of that dynamic. But on the other hand caucuses are a great equalizer to money and media influence.

In a primary syestem Senator Paul Wellstone and Amy Klobuchar likely would not have become senators. I would not be represented by a very excellent Hmong state rep. Keith Ellison would doubtless not be the nations Only Muslim Congressperson.

In an age where power and money and influence is becoming increasingly concentrated, I would not be so quick to toss out caucuses.

Especially in MN where the party itself has a tendency to pick people with famous names who happen to be disastrous candidates.

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I do think that the smaller states should go before the large states. Having the large states go first biases the race towards the establishment candidate with the most name recognition and money. Moreover, the large states are so big that they matter and get attention even if they come at the end of the primary cycle. Small states like Iowa, or New Hampshire wouldn't matter for practical purposes if they came at the end.

Open primaries are only a problem if one party already has a nominee and the other one doesn't. But I think that, all in all, each state party should decide how it wants to award its own delegates. Remember, state parties don't have to accept the state sponsored primary as legitimate. They can hold their own caucus or firehouse caucus if they wish.

Superdelegates are destructive if you have a system with proportional representation in every state like the democrats have. Superdelegates are only necessary if you don't have a significant amount of winner-take-all states, and then superdelegates only be congressmen, who must answer to the people at every election.

You canot force atates to pay for primaries. Sorry. We need a mix of contests in any case. Cacuses test a candidates leadership and organizational skills in a way that primaries do not.

I've floated this idea before, but here goes.

1. Five primary dates, one each month from Jan-May.

2. Jan primary is a few small states totaling about 5% of the total delegates.

3. Each successive monthly date awards increasing amounts of delegates until you have about 40% in May.

4. States rotate (although obviously only small states can be in the Jan date).

5. No caucuses. No open primaries. No superdelegates.

The advantage of having small states early is that it lowers the entry barrier. It's possible for a candidate with meager resources to compete in small states. With a win, more resources will flow.

By the end you'll almost certainly be down to two candidates facing off in a final primary date to actually decide the nomination.

What's really the rationale for superdelegates? It never made any sense. Can you actually imagine a situation in which they overturn the results of the primaries?

I like your 1-4; not sure about #5.