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The Strange History Of John McCain's Economic Theories

According to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, John McCain's recently released tax plan is very regressive "even compared with a system in which the 2001-06 tax cuts are made permanent." It provides "relatively little tax relief to those at the bottom of the income scale while providing huge tax cuts to households at the very top of the income distribution."


Many have remarked on McCain's inconsistency in proposing a tax plan even more regressive than the Bush tax cuts he once opposed. His criticism at the time was passionate and consistent. He first spoke out against Bush's proposed tax plan in January of 2000, arguing: I don't believe the wealthiest 10% of Americans should get 60% of the tax breaks. I think the lowest 10% should get the breaks. 


McCain then voted against Bush's tax cuts in both 2001 and 2003, explaining: When you look at the percentage of the tax cuts that--as the previous tax cuts--that go to the wealthiest Americans, you will find that the bulk of it, again, goes to wealthiest Americans... A lot of Americans now are paying a very large a--low and middle-income Americans are paying a significantly larger amount of their income in taxes. I’d like to see them get the bulk of the relief.


McCain skipped significant tax votes in 2004, and it was not until 2006 that he voted to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.


McCain's change of heart in 2006 is particularly curious, since he only recently moved away from supply-side economic theory. In 2000, he explained: In the interest of full disclosure, I didn't pay nearly the attention to those issues in the past. I was probably a 'supply-sider' based on the fact that I really didn't jump into the issue.... I also hope that my thinking has changed as a result of the times. I am compelled by information that indicates that there's a growing gap between haves and have-nots in America.


McCain's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, added: The Bush plan is a 1980s plan, and it ignores the lessons of the '90s. Senator McCain challenged his economic team to figure out why we're doing well in the '90s.


All the more strange then that Hassett and McCain have now returned to supply-side theory. This year, Hassett argued: What really happens is that the economy grows more vigorously when you lower tax rates. It is beyond the reach of economic science to explain precisely why that happens, but it does.


But does it? The lessons of the 80's and 90's, which Hassett noted in 2000, demonstrate the opposite. The consequences of Federal policies in the 80's and 90's suggest that tight fiscal policy, not tax cuts, spurs growth. Moreover, the few years of economic growth between recessions under the Bush Administration pale in comparison to economic boom of the 90's, so there has not been new information to contradict the lessons of the 90's. Finally, the income gap that McCain cited in 2000 as justification for his criticisms of supply-side theory has grown dramatically for the last eight years.


Without new information to lead McCain and Hassett to change their minds, one naturally suspects political motivations. John McCain, having been attacked by fellow Republicans for his opposition to Bush's tax cuts, conveniently returned to the conservative economic fold not long before running for President, and his change of heart certainly helped him during the Republican primary. Such an interpretation also fits with Hassett's shoulder-shrugging non-explanation for supply-side's alleged success as "beyond the reach of economic science." But if driven by political expediency, why has McCain continued to push an even more regressive tax policy after winning the nomination? While outdoing Bush on tax cuts for the wealthy helps him to maintain support from rank-and-file Republicans, he has lost significant strategic ground to Obama, since Obama's plan offers more tax relief to lower and middle class Americans than McCain's does. He has also underscored the validity of Obama's charge that he would continue Bush's policies.


There is a third possibility. McCain's rejection of Bush's tax policies from 2000 through 2003 may have been more politically motivated than his current economic position. That is to say, he may have exaggerated his opposition to those policies at the time in order to bolster his reputation as a maverick. This possibility is supported by the fact that there was a discrepancy between McCain's words in 2000 and his policies. While he argued that "the lowest 10%" of earners should receive the most tax breaks, his own tax proposal at the time offered them almost nothing; all the benefits would have gone to the top 40%. Attempting to demonstrate that his economic plan benefited "the have-nots", McCain noted his proposal to raise the income threshold subject to the fifteen percent tax bracket: If you put more and more people into the fifteen percent tax bracket, you would have a significant beneficial effect. The have-nots are not the poorest necessarily; the have-nots are lower- and middle-income Americans, who are not rising as fast as the wealthiest Americans, as well. But as noted by Jonathan Chait of the New Republic, those making more than the threshold included only the top 25% of tax payers. When told this, McCain acknowledged the discrepancy between his tax proposal and his stated intentions: Maybe I'm not paying enough attention to the poorest of America. Maybe my priorities are not correct. I selected this course not thinking that it's perfect but thinking that it's the best that I could come up with.


Yet in 2008, McCain has had a new opportunity to come up with a more perfect plan. His new and improved tax plan all but ignores the poor in favor of tax cuts for the most wealthy. Whether he never meant those words, whether he has since rejected them, or whether he has decided that political expediency forces him to contradict them, it seems that John McCain has chosen to pay even less attention to the poorest of America.



Comments (71)

Do you seriously expect anyone in this den of imbeciles to read a post that begins "According to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center"?

I am so angry at the pretension of this post, I shall not comment further upon it.

Out-of-character foul, crankypants. You like pretension.

Your foul post is regrettably within the meager bounds of your character, Khan. If those arguments are the best you Obamanothings can do, you'll be lashed with my McCain until you, like President Bush, rest awkwardly within his feeble, homoerotic embrace.

Great post, man!

Genghis, I'm going to have Austan Goolsbee contact you later this week. We need economic advice from folks like you, who can hyperlink to other articles, and not blurt out stuff about NAFTA. Thanks for the tips. BO

Fauxbama is, like, totally hawt!

I resent the avatar of that woman. And I resent her comment more.

Hey big guy -- haven't we met somewhere before?

Recommended. I think McCain has a very serious youtube problem. He's a completely different politician than he was 4 years ago and while that helped him win the primary it's going to doom him in the general.

Sadly this doesn't appear headed for the recd list. I guess the people of TPM want their snark from Mr Genghis. Maybe you need another bar room scene post?

actually, I spoke to soon - I forgot how long the posts stay up on the new cafe format. This still has a chance - come one people!

Recommend the collar and smart TPM posts!

Already on the list with a mere six recs. The competition is light these days.

I think that I'm being avatar-spammed.

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So you like your spam without an avatar, eh?

Bloody fascist.

God that made me laugh. Thanks

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Which God made you laugh? ChronoSpark? Or is he just an angel on the hunt? :)

countman, You're wasting your time here. They don't speak to new people. You can't speak crap-speak anyway. Come back to the weirdo group.

Ah yes - the "in crowd" argument. Come to my thread where you are "in".

It is quite an interesting thing to watch.

Thank you, Billy-Glad-Cypher, for your positive and substantive contribution to the thread. How I have missed your adolescent obsession with cafe cliques.

countman - it was the post by "spam" that made me laugh. Grammar is far from a skill for me. The god reminds me to laugh all the time, I just forget to listen.

ELLIOTTNESS, LAUGH!!!

Well I sure did.

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Strangely enough, I did understand that you meant, "God! That made me laugh." Just my feeble attempt at a joke beyond that.

Even your serious posts attract the silliness.

Re the serious post: great work. Thanks much for the info, too. (I'm going to have to go through it again...a couple of times.)

Re the silliness: congratulations. I see it as a display of our collective affection. (hug and smile)

Good relations with the Wookiees you have.

And wrong about this post you are, recommended it will be, little green dude.

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Yes, McCain appears to have learned how to morph, although not too successfully. He seems to keep revealing parts of his old selves.

Good post Genghis.

On a list of a (baker's) dozen reasons why McCain won't win, #7:

7. The Not So Straight-talk Factor: McCain has built his reputation on being a man of principle. This has two features: he believes in something and he sticks with what he believes in. McCain has recently begun to backpedal on principles and commitments. He is vulnerable to being viewed as a flip-flopper, if not dishonest, which will undermine his hitherto greatest strength.

“A Dozen Reasons Why McCain Won’t Win: Money-Back Guarantee”
http://msa4.wordpress.com/


In a just future, there will be no money, and no inequality. Nonetheless, I do respect the martial virtue of this primitive McCain fellow.

Though as you know, I have endorsed his opponent, and bet heavily upon him, given my seeming foreknowledge of your 21st Century Earth history.

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I guess you haven't heard, Worf, the Federation has endorsed Obama.

"Obama, Spock, and the New Star Trek Nation"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/

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Nicely done! Recommended! Hopefully the press and the Obama camp give this issue the attention it deserves.

They should have a internet researcher who collects such analysis. At least one would hope.

It would be nice if they had a submission line too - some way for others to add to their strategic knowledge.

Hell, they might, but that would require me to get my lazy ass off this web site.

God... clicking links and opening new tabs has gottend difficult these days.

Note to Andrew Golis: I posted with Safari, which I don't usually do. My italics disappeared, and single lines between paragraphs were replaced with double lines.

Bummer.

I'm relieved to know that the inelegance of this post didn't have to do with you. It was pretty hard to keep straight without the italics.

But, in the end, it was worth the effort.

I must say - the lack of snark in the original post has clearly brought out those willing to fill the gap.

meta-Thanks Genghis. You really bring the snark

Welcome back, Elliot. I missed your commentary.

Sorry, I meant Elliott with two T's

The single to double lines are definitely not a Safari thing. I've had the same thing happen with Mozilla, although I have some suspicion it only happened when I pasted text with paragraph breaks into the edit window.

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What kind of creature is a Mozilla?

http://www.mozilla.org/

it is the parent that spawned Firefox and similar creations. It has a big sugar daddy named Google.

McCain skipped significant tax votes in 2004, and it was not until 2006 that he voted to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.

Well, you know, he's getting on in years and he's got to think about a secure retirement. He can't go jeopardizing Cindy's income by taxing it fairly.

It's not like he can "replenish the coffers" after being president, the way Georgie plans to. He'd be lucky to be able to stay awake for much of the day by that time.

Genghis, you track some interesting shifts between 2000 and 2008. The moronic media has not woken up to his non-Mavericky turns and looks like they may never. Your last paragraph gives him a chilling patina. Definitely don't want him as Prez.

Good job.

Here is Tim Russert asking McCain about his tax cut flip flop:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=dYsKiA3Myyw

McCain has a painful minute or so to prepare for his response as Russert shows him past statements on Bush tax cuts. McCain's answer is weak - he jsut answers it as if there was no change in postiion at all. As if he didn't just watch himself say that he couldn't support tax cuts for the rich because they would mean budget deficits.

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Great post, Ghenghis. It would be valuable to document these positions of McCain's that you paraphrase (especially on video - CSpan?). Putting real meat on the assertion that McCain is selling out the working class could affect the election.

It is. Here's the late Russert: "That's a direct contradiction:"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYsKiA3Myyw

Here's McCain on cspan in '03:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4K4I5jf9WmE

Here he is with Lieberman explaining his vote against the tax cuts:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUDBV6RhQho

A number of McCain's criticisms of the Bush's tax plan are posted here: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24421

Oops, Yoda already posted the Russert link. Thanks, Y.

I'm just impressed you got 4 URLs in a single commentary... TPM bounced my posts if they have more than 3!

I was just going to ask how you did that!

I didn't know that there was a limit. Maybe you can put multiple links into a comment on your own thread. Either that or my shirt gives me special powers.

The shirt is currently the only possible explanation. Maybe one URL per color...

It could quite well be Karma. I mean a Trusted User, kinda thing. TPM traditionally has had it, so I wouldn't be surprised if they still do.

I'm still trying to get through all these links Genghis. Great effort. Thank you.

This may call for a round of TPM beer.

Damn. Just donated all my flashing shirts to Goodwill.

Wow, Genghis. I'm impressed as always. I wonder: why don't you write for a professional magazine or newspaper? If there were more articles like this one written by more people like you, maybe our media wouldn't be as fucked as it currently is.

Thank you, CS. That's a very nice comment. I'm glad to write something that people find worth reading and I confess to considering the idea of getting into journalism, but it would be a big career shift for me.

Oh, please do it! I pledge my readership.

Nice post, Genghis. I'm starting to think that a mind-control device must have been implanted in McCain's brain during his cancer treatment, and the Gnomes of Zürich have recently taken the helm.

For those not into sifting through the whole pdf, I found a compact table of the resulting tax relief/burden of the two plans (which I've tried to roughly format for good legibility here):

........................MCCAIN......... OBAMA
Income........... Avg. tax bill... Avg. tax bill
Over $2.9M...... -$269,364.... +$701,885
$603K and up..... -$45,361.... +$115,974
$227K-$603K....... -$7,871............ +$12
$161K-$227K....... -$4,380........ -$2,789
$112K-$161K....... -$2,614........ -$2,204
$66K-$112K......... -$1,009........ -$1,290
$38K-$66K............. -$319........ -$1,042
$19K-$38K............. -$113........... -$892
Under $19K.............. -$19........... -$567

But as fogu2 has already so eloquentlypointed out, middle-class wage earners like himself with household incomes of $250,000/yr. would get screwed by Obama's so-called "progressive" taxation.

Oops, my html-tagger extension didn't update along with my Firefox update to 3.0, and my attempt at doing it by hand obviously failed. Here's another try:

But as fogu2 has already so eloquently pointed out...

Wow. The idea that a $250K household income is middle class is breathtaking. And here I thought my $70K household income (with child) was doing ok. Not great, but (lower) middle class.

Good point, BS like that kind of skewers the data sets, don't it.

:(

Depends where you live, right? 70K in NYC doesn't get you very far.

I realize now that my snarkiness towards fogu2's comment about $250k being middle class got lost while wrestling with the html. Please mentally insert a & in the appropriate places when reading my post!

Damn the html interpreter here is hard to predict! That should have read:

"Please mentally insert a <snark> & </snark> in the appropriate places when reading my post!"


*crosses fingers that it works this time...

There is a third possibility. McCain's rejection of Bush's tax policies from 2000 through 2003 may have been more politically motivated than his current economic position. That is to say, he may have exaggerated his opposition to those policies at the time in order to bolster his reputation as a maverick.

Interesting thought. However, if he was so easily inclined to misstate his position circa 00-03, why come with the Truth Stick now, when presumably it could potentially hurt him badly in the general?

The only possibility I can immediately devise (though admittedly lame) is that he is attempting to shore up support where he needs it, and simply writing off voters who either 1) wouldn't vote for him anyway or 2) work two 9-5s to make that $19k-$25k and don't have the time or perhaps the educational background of the $2.9M folks to properly research and understand his tax plan.

It's a dogwhistle to be heard (he hopes) only by the "wealthy, educated elite" with whom our friend Senator Obama is predicted to do well, thereby attempting to cull their votes. Conversely, of the

Not sure what happened, but somehow my post got chopped. To continue:

Conversely, of the

Sheesh! I got it now. Was using a 'less-than' character - which of course was interpreted as the beginning of an HTML tag. So dumb. Last try:

Of the under $25k folks who already plan to cast a ballot for McCain, how many do you think will change their minds due to his tax policy?

Excellent fodder for some advertising - turning McCain's words against him. Nice analysis, thanks Genghis.

And let's not forget the ramifications of McCain's tax policy folks. He's proposing trillions in new debt which will bankrupt the country.

Why is he doing this? I think part of the reason not touched on yet is his campaign team has been decimated by the lobbyist firings. He doesn't know squat about economics himself and without some gatekeepers who do he's susceptible to all kinds of pressure from the remnants of Republican deadenders. That and he's going nowhere without lots of fatcat donors and he's way behind in fundraising as it is.

I swear McCain is so hapless if he hadn't married his beer heiress and was never elected to office right now he'd be a bitter retired Navy pilot known for crashing planes and selling out to the North Vietnamese. There'd be some swindler at his door every other week taking advantage of his ignorance about everything from investments to driveway sealers.

This man isn't qualified to be president. His policies read more like the positions of some third party crank than those of a major party candidate. Which is fine by me. At this rate one of the big the stories in November will be "What happened to the Republican party?"

McCain's tax policy and his economic advisors don't really matter because McCain doesn't understand economics. He told us so.

Wait, wasn't it Hillary that said "I don't put in with Economists." I guess it was both.

She said that after everyone called her out on the gas tax holiday. Before that, she was so in with economists.

This was very informative... I agree with those above encouraging you towards journalism. I keep running across people who swear that McCain is "really a democrat." I tell them it seems he is more conservative now that he wants to win with mainstream republicans instead of be the "maverick." They seem to have this trust that he will return to his maverick status. I doubt that, so I am intrigued by the theory that his original maverickness was less than genuine. Keep up the good posts, it's things like this that are going to help me when I find myself yelling about tax policy outside a bar at 3am (it did happen a few weeks ago. And yes, I was yelling at someone, not just randomly yelling).

Nicely done, Genghis. John McCain's status as a "maverick" is a complete fabrication. I cringe every time I hear some talking head use it in earnest.

My lazy ass is saving this post with a referential comment so I can come back and read it when I'm properly coherent. Or at least less sleep-deprived. Hope noone minds.

That Center on Budget and Policy Priorities link is fascinating. Do you know anything about the organization? Do they have any sort of political bias?

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