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The People Who WILL NOT Be Obama's Veep

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The veepstakes is a silly, time-wasting game for political junkies.  Which is, of course, why
I love it.  But I do get tired of comments by folks who are positive
that they know who it will be, or are adamant that their favorite
choice must be picked.  I've also noticed that these folks also tend to
pick some of the most implausible candidates for veep.

I'd like to propose a list of the no-way-in-hell candidates for the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee.  Comments and disagreements are most welcome.

1. 
Al Gore:  I would wager my entire life savings and my
first-born child that Gore will never again hold an elected
office.  He's a sixty-year-old man who finally figured out what his
calling is in life, and there's no way he'd want to throw that away
just to be demoted to a thankless, tiring job that he already held for
eight years just so that in eight years time he will get a shot at a more glamorous and powerful job that he actually already won and then was denied eight years ago.  Who wants to look forward and say that on his sixty-eighth birthday he will have once again accomplished what he already accomplished by his fifty-second birthday?   Who would want to live their life on such a repetitive loop?  I think Al Gore is a happier guy because he's let his presidential dreams die.  The electoral draw here also is minimal--he was unable to carry Tennessee at the top of the ticket and it's hard to see how choosing Gore is a nod to Clinton's supporters.  Minuses all around.

2.  John Edwards:  Why not? Because he's far
less experienced in politics than Obama; he's only won a single
election in his life.  In fact,
he's spent far more time running for elected offices than he has ever
spent holding an elected office.  Also, he failed in the Veep
slot last time--he didn't bring a single new state into play, he did not click with the nominee, and he badly flubbed
the debate with Cheney.  And, aside from a cadre of bloggers
and a smattering of voters, most people just aren't that into
him.  Each time he's sought votes from the American people, the
American people have responded with a resounding "meh." Why would Obama pick a guy with a shorter resume and a demonstrated history of screwing the electoral pooch?

What's more, the
haircut/McMansion/trial lawyer thing reinforces the "Obama is an
elitist" attack.  I think the elitist tag is total bullsh*t for both
Obama and Edwards, but if Obama wants to protect himself from that
smear, tapping Edwards is not the right way to do that.

3. 
Hillary Clinton.  Forget the electoral pros and cons.  You can make a
fine case that Clinton helps the ticket and you can make a fine case
that she hurts it.  I don't think that's a settled issue. 

But
to understand why Obama will never pick her, you really need to take a
big picture view of the structure of American presidential power.  Most
of the president's power is legally granted by the Constitution, but a
real and not insignificant part of the presidency is the informal
deference and attention granted to the POTUS by the American media,
members of Congress, their own political party, and the American
people.  Call it "the bully pulpit," although it's much more than that.
 

Now, behind the scenes, many presidents are somewhat generous
with their constitutional powers, and allow their vice-presidents,
chiefs of staff, and other top advisers share a fair amount of the
executive decision-making.  The Bush-Cheney power-sharing agreement of
course comes to mind, but Clinton-Gore, Nixon-Kissinger, 
Roosevelt-Hull, and Wilson-House comes to mind.  Each of those
relationships was fraught with internal tensions, but that’s another
story for another time.

But NO president has ever allowed
another member of the executive branch to share his bully pulpit.  And
if Hillary Clinton held the office of the Vice-President, President
Obama would have to deal with a rival pole of power within his own
executive branch.

It doesn't matter if Clinton promises to be
meek and obedient (and frankly, it's a stretch to imagine her either
promising that or keeping that promise). The fact is, she's already has
a substantial position in American political life, and by virtue of her
own status and her husband's status as an ex-president, the press
corps, party bigwigs, and members of Congress will grant her a level of
authority that no vice-president has ever had before (with the possible
exception of Jefferson under Adams, and the original structure of
executive branch that put the president’s chief rival under  him was
such a disaster that it led to a constitutional amendment).  

Obama
has proven that he likes to run a tidy, disciplined ship.  Senator
Clinton has proven that she never had full control of either her staff
or her husband during the campaign.  Why would he want to invite his
once-acrimonious rival aboard, along with her own army of drama-loving,
leak-prone staffers and her vocal, attention-loving ex-president
husband?

There's just no reason Obama would want to share his
public platform with someone who has arguably greater stature and lots
of public sway. Every time that she disagrees with Obama, she will be
able to threaten the use of her own bully pulpit, either explicitly or
implicitly.  Every time Obama makes a tough call, he'll have to
compromise with Hillary Clinton, and even then, he’ll have to worry
about placating her staffers and her husband.  That's no way to run a
White House.

Clintons supports can carp and threaten all they
like now.  I don't necessarily fault them or her for trying to get the Vice-Presidency; they put enormous effort into her campaign, and they sincerely believe she is a superior leader.  But I believe they're wrong to want it for all the reasons I laid out above.  If not picking Clinton turns out to cost Democrats the election, so be it.  Because an Obama-Clinton Administration
would be a history-making political clusterf*ck on the grandest scale
imaginable.

**Please disregard the previous very similar post under this name: I'm
new to TPM blogging and the lack of any editing feature made for a sloppy post.  My apologies for the double post: lesson learned.**


Comments (38)

I think your point about Edwards is the case against him, and I agree that he's a long shot, but I wouldn't say that there's no way he'll be the VP nominee.

Hell, look at every VP poll match-up done and Edwards is by far the single best improvement to Obama's numbers. That alone has to grab some attention. Also, Edwards has already been vetted, he's got the debates with Darth Cheney behind him and can build on that experience.

I wouldn't bet on Edwards, but I wouldn't take him totally off the list either.

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Yoda, Edward himself has ruled out the option. He doesn't want it.
(I think he does want A-G)

He is not all that suited for AG despite being a trial lawyer. HHS I could buy.

That match-up polling is mostly polling name recognition, which Edwards does have compared to the others in the SurveyUSA head-to-head pairing match-ups.

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Let me expand on your #3, why the nightmare ticket isn't going to (or at least shouldn't) happen:

http://www.thepersonalispolitical.com/2008/06/why-no-nightmare-ticket-lets-count.html

You don't think big enough.

People who will not be Obama's veep

4. Marc Dann

Marc Dann, Ohio state senator and attorney general of Ohio from 2007 to 2008, brings little to the ticket and carries significant liabilities. In a period marked mostly by Republican scandal, Dann has been one of a handful of Democrats to be forced of office recently, pressured to resign by his own party after shockingly extreme allegations of sexual harassment. In addition Dann has proven a negative on the campaign trail without even being involved with the Obama campaign; he is not known to have endorsed Obama, but did at one point minorly making local news by showing up at an Obama fundraiser and cursing out a reporter for the Warren, Ohio Tribune-Chronicle over a negative article that had been written about Dann. If there is any one candidate who is not going to be Obama's running mate, surely Dann is that candidate.

5. Jimmy Carter

Carter carries significant political baggage, and in addition is currently 83 years of age; in 2016 he would be 91. Although there is some question over how old is "too old" to be President. Appointing an octogenarian former President as VP would interfere with Obama's "change" message.

6. Arianna Huffington

Although appointing an ex-Republican as VP would fit well with Obama's claims to "post-partisanship", Arianna Huffington is not a U.S. national and is barred from becoming Vice President under the Twelfth Amendment.

7. Steve Carrell

Steve Carrell has no political experience and polls poorly in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.

8. Joe Lieberman

Lieberman would present significant message conflict difficulties, and may present legal challenges getting on the ballot considering it is already known Lieberman will be the Vice Presidential candidate for Sen. John McCain.

9. Bob Russell

Bob Russell is a fictional character from NBC's The West Wing and cannot run for Vice President.

He/she wasn't trying to think "big enough" - there were a couple of straw men to get to the real fun, bashing Hillary again for not being a team player.

10. Eliot Spitzer

He needs a job, but he's abrasive, from the wrong state and took the whole civil disobedience thing a little too far.

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"What's more, the haircut/McMansion/trial lawyer thing reinforces the "Obama is an elitist" attack. I think the elitist tag is total bullsh*t for both
Obama and Edwards,"

Interesting how we all react so differently to the same thing. His spending that much on a haircut turned me off so strongly. His mansion has the same effect.

I loathe conspicuous consumption - particularly on the part of those who publicly champion the cause of the poor.

Must have been the religious upbringing. Although I ended up a passionate atheist, some things stick with you. `Harder for the rich man...`

(I feel the same way about Gore, Obama. BTW I am utterly disgusted by Trinity United buying Wright a retirement mansion in a gated white community.)

Why can't all these people just buy a pleasant, comfortable house, ensure a comfortable retirement and then invest all their surplus income in the things they so righteously profess to care about?
There's just this powerful reality gap between their politics, rhetoric and what they actually do.

You've exactly captured my feelings about Gore. He's a Nobel Laureate who travels around the world promoting the issue he's passionate about down to the core of his being. He sits on the board of Apple and enjoys much greater freedom than he ever could as somebody's VP or even President. He has what he's always wanted. Good for him!

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There's a fascinating article on politico today abut Webb. I'd recommend it as an important read.

The article mostly speculates on the issue of a trail of speeches and writings, including a major book Webb wrote `Born Fighting`; the principle thesis the Politico article examines is Webb's attempts to revise history on the South's attitude to the Civil War and slavery; his revisionist version argues that for ordinary folk in the South the issue was state sovereignty, not slavery.

Politico speculates on whether or not this would depress the African American vote.

Personally I find the notion depressing. To argue that the southern working class had a more powerful motivation than racism is not to argue that Webb's argument is insulting to any group. That the GOP might be able to portray it in that light is yet more of the classic sh*t they try to pull.

As Webb's office pointed out
“He doesn’t defend the war at all or the practice of slavery. He does make arguments about why the South seceded,” said Denny Todd. “The individual Confederate soldier, for the most part, did not own slaves. They weren’t wealthy landowners. Webb simply talks about why these men — mostly poor and white — stepped up and answered the call to serve.”

One note of encouragment: 85% of frican-Americans voted for Webb

What's more worrying was his attitude to women in the military.

"Webb had more damaging exposure from his 1979 Washingtonian magazine article titled “Women Can’t Fight,” in which Webb, an ex-Marine, described one of the Naval Academy’s coed dorms as “a horny woman’s dream” and argued against allowing women to take combat roles."

This would go down really well with Hillary's women...

his revisionist version argues that for ordinary folk in the South the issue was state sovereignty, not slavery

That is not a revisionist version of events. It is the truth. For the common soldier it was as much about patriotism as anthing else. They were patriotic citizens of their state. If you read statements of soldiers made at the time you hear time and again statements like, 'I am a Virginian first, last, and always.'

Slavery was an issue in the war. It was not the only one. It is the one that is clearest to the distant observer and the most clearly moral one. We like clear moral messages. We like for their to be good guys and bad ones so we know who to root for but it is seldom that simple. I agree with the Unions position on slavery, and states rights. But both were issues and the issue of wether power should be held localy or centraly has been with us since the begining and will be with us till the end.

Odd that South Carolina's Declaration of Secession mentions slavery so much, and it's the only specific complaint mentioned at all.

For that matter, the Constiution of the Confederate States of America was virtually identical to U.S. Constitution at the time. About the only differences were the treatment of slavery and the line time veto for budget bills. Not too many people think the Civil War started over the line item veto.

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That doesn't change why people who had no slaves voted for it, now does it? Most people won't fight with the potential of dying, for something that has no importance to them.

That has as little to do with why people joined the military and fought as your avitar does with your appearance.

The fact stands that the public justification that the slaveholding states -- which is how they referred to themselves in the various ordinances of secession -- gave for rebellion is the protection and expansion of slavery. Not "States Rights" or the "My State, Right or Wrong".

And that fact is irrelevant to the discussion of why the soldiers fought, which is the matter under discussion. The reasons of the leaders and the reasons of the soldiers are not the same thing.

Webb is essentially McCain minus 20 or so years; plus a full head of red hair and a bigger brain.

The last thing Obama needs is a running mate who makes McCain seem thoughtful and reflective.

Webb's time will come, but not today.

Joe Biden shores up Barack's weak Foreign Policy flank, is a battle-tested national figure who enjoys great respect from members and voters of both parties and, most important, is an undisputed expert on Iraq.

He also knows when to speak and when to keep silent.

One other name to add to the author's list of who will NOT be Barack's VP: Fredrick Bernanke.

So to all of you out there in TPM thinking of drafting me for the position: "If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."

[Does TPM permit humor?]

Depends.

I'll employ it judiciously.

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How much are your life savings?

I mean, I wouldn't want to wipe you out, but I do think Gore is a possible running mate, and personally, he is far and away my top choice. I also think unquestionably he would be the strongest running mate--he ran ahead of everyone in trial heats before the primaries. Not carrying TN is meaningless--the demographics had shifted radically in that state from the time he was elected VP to the time he ran for Prez.

Joe Biden shores up Barack's weak Foreign Policy flank, is a battle-tested national figure who enjoys great respect from members and voters of both parties and, most important, is an undisputed expert on Iraq. He also knows when to speak and when to keep silent.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, there Bernanke. Joe Biden's big proposal on Iraq was to divide the country in three separate parts which is one of the few things most Iraqis agree on: it's a horrible idea.

You couple that with Biden's "leadership" on the bankruptcy bill and nominating him is no way to change the way we do business in Washington. Barack could only do worse by making him Sec. of State.

Biden is a fine public speaker but he's been in the senate so long he's lost his bearings in some very important ways.


markg8,

1. I, for one, have long since abandoned the belief that Iraq is or ever was an actual country. It came to life when some British diplomats drew some lines on a map. Iraq was a fiction. Without a monster holding it together, it crumbled into its constituent parts. Biden was correct.

2. You can't always get absolute ideological perfection in national candidates. There may be some Obama policy positions that aren't to your liking? The VP candidate isn't going to be a saint.

One has to weigh the pluses and minuses, and in Biden's case, especially considering Obama's weaknesses in both overall "experience," and national security issues in particular, Biden's strengths nicely complement the Boss' weaknesses.

FB

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Another big advantage of Joe Biden is that he appeals to the same people that John McCain does: independents, supporters of cooperation across the aisles, folks who value steady experience, etc. He may not bring a big state but he would bring over a LOT of voters who hesitate voting for the unknown, untested, doesn't-know-the-ways-of-Washington over someone who has been there and been known for 40 years. A lot of people, esp that older demographic that Obama needs, are going to prefer his policies but feel a lot more 'comfortable' with John McCain. That same factor that caused so many late-breakers to go for Clinton. Biden would give a very good excuse for them to break for Obama instead.

--- And Biden is a real person: blue-collar background (orig. from Scranton, PA), close family that he talks about movingly, solid personal life, has overcome tragedy (loss of first wife and daughter, serious medical threat). --------- The 'plagarism' charge is ridiculous and debunked long ago: there are many, many videos of him giving the same quotations with credit to Neil Kinnock - he forgot to do so on one occasion but by the time that was sorted out the press storm had done it's job. He's a much more savvy campaigner now. ------- Final note, his Iraq plan was, if nothing else, a PLAN and according to many who have studied the area a good one (it wasn't to separate the country, by the way but to make it a federation).

FredrickBernanke,

1. I, for one, have long since abandoned the belief that Iraq is or ever was an actual country. It came to life when some British diplomats drew some lines on a map. Iraq was a fiction. Without a monster holding it together, it crumbled into its constituent parts. Biden was correct.

It's not up to you, me, Joe Biden or any other American to decide whether Iraqi is one country. Iraqis overwhelming (except Kurds) want it to remain so. Might I remind you that some 73 years after the founding of the USA this country fought a ghastly war over whether or not we should all remain Americans.

Biden's position that we should decide Iraq's future is no less imperialistic than those long dead British diplomats. And it's an invitation to civil war.

2. You can't always get absolute ideological perfection in national candidates. There may be some Obama policy positions that aren't to your liking? The VP candidate isn't going to be a saint.

No kidding. I still don't think Biden is the foreign policy whizz kid you think he is and he's been in the pocket of big banking interests for decades.

One has to weigh the pluses and minuses, and in Biden's case, especially considering Obama's weaknesses in both overall "experience," and national security issues in particular, Biden's strengths nicely complement the Boss' weaknesses.

I don't accept the premise that Obama has "weaknesses" on national security and experience.
Accepting that MSM and Republican shibboleth only strengthens it. Picking a Biden accentuates it further and would show bad judgment for the above stated reasons. Obama can do better.

I don't accept the premise that Obama has "weaknesses" on national security and experience. Accepting that MSM and Republican shibboleth only strengthens it. Picking a Biden accentuates it further and would show bad judgment for the above stated reasons. Obama can do better.

Exactly

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Hillary as the voice of women-Ironicaly, Hillary could feel that rolw better as a US Senator than as VIcePresident. The VIce President is a part of any administration and wouldbe required to be a team member. A senator has far more Freedom to act and say what needs to be said. Between Pelosi in the House and Hillary in Senate they could groom, foster and encourage the development of nationalwomen candidates.

I'm thinking Sam Nunn as VP these days. He's got the whole military credential thing going as well as someone who has been somewhat independent of his party. Thus, a version of John McCain that hasn't begun to lose it yet making him capable of out-McCaining McCain. He's also old enough that he won't be in anyone's (i.e. Hillary's) way in 2016. A low risk VP who will know how to help Obama impose his will on Congress, instant credentials on military matters, plus possibly enough to really turn some of the southern states blue if combined with an exceptional African-American turnout.
It's not that I go ga-ga over Nunn. I don't. He screwed gays over with his no gays in the military mantra. But I can't see anything that Obama needs that he does not have.
I was previously hoping for a female VP, but someone other than Hillary. But the oft-spoken sentiment in the Hillary camp seems to be that selecting a woman other than Hillary would be an insult to her. So who needs that drama when none of the other potential female candidates whose names have been thrown around bring the foreign policy credentials that would give a boost to Obama.

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Here's a compelling piece on why Webb shouldn't be.

http://www.slate.com/id/2193217/

The VEEP stakes make for engrossing reading - great fun.

I just read a glowing appraisal of Biden, recommending him, and then was hugely amused reading all the scathing reactions in the comment section.
If anyone wants to check those out it was Ezra Klein's article in The American Prospect

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=06&year=2008&base_name=veepstakes_the_case_for_biden&13

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You are free to hold 20-30 YO statements against Webb. I would focus on what he has done and said since.

I would emphasize the fact that Webb is more vocal about the evils of the developing two-class society than anyone else in contention.

If we don't watch out, we will be following the baleful examples set by pre-liberation South Africa, Israel, and much of the third world, where the economy operates for the rich only. Large corporations and their wealthy human wards of both parties really won't mind if middle-class Americans end up sitting around a coin-operated gas heater in the winter, dropping a quarter in for another 15 minutes of heat.

The most compelling reasons you give about Clinton's unacceptability is the way she ran her campaign.

Wesley Clark, however, big Clinton supporter, and fellow Arkansan might fit the bill -- military and foreign policy chops under his belt. He is not the greatest speaker, but he's seems tough and determined and disciplined!

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Wesley Clark is a terrible idea for VP and I would put him on the original list at #4. The last thing we need right now is the Republicans hammering away at a Democratic candidate over the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There are far to many skeletons (literal and figurative) in that closet...

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I wouldn't rule out Al Gore.

1) For better or worse, Dick Cheney has forever changed the nature of the VP role, giving it more power, influence and a much higher, more active profile.

2) Given that, and Obama's empowering style of leadership, Gore would have an unparalleled position from which to leverage US leadership on the world stage on the issues he cares so much about. What better way to redirect US priorities, guide the implementation of federal policy and promote state & local cooperation? Who else but Al Gore could credibly lead global discussions and negotiations on these sensitive issues? I should think that if Obama offered Gore that sphere of influence, he'd be hard pressed not to take it.\

It's one thing to "have an impact" on the public's perception of an issue; it's a complete 'nother thing to be the guy at the head of the table where the public policy is being crafted and implemented, where deals are brokered. That's where change of the greatest magnitude will take place, and Gore would be the guy to make it happen.

Watch Gore's latest slide show - he and Obama are literally speaking the same language:

http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/243

Someone (like Laurie David or RFK Jr.) should start a Draft Gore for VP petition.


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Edwards should be the Katrina reconstruction czar (you'll be forgiven for forgetting that such a federal post exists, but it did at one point). We need a voice to talk about the simple injustice of letting a region die because it is too poor, and too black, to stay in the news. He'd be perfect, twang, Two Americas, and all. And the job would be good for his profile, too-- Hoover became president after successfully filling a similar post.

I don't think Edwards is a real choice. He probably isn't willing to give up time with his wife unless it is for the Presidency itself.

I also agree that Biden would be a bad choice. He just plain talks too much and is very indiscreet at times.

I just hope he doesn't chose Hillary!

"You've exactly captured my feelings about Gore. He's a Nobel Laureate who travels around the world promoting the issue he's passionate about down to the core of his being. He sits on the board of Apple and enjoys much greater freedom than he ever could as somebody's VP or even President. He has what he's always wanted. Good for him!

"Posted by PistonMoaned"

Gore got into politics because his father was a Senator, and who apparently wanted to be presdient, the role Gore was to fill in his stead.

However, I've long sensed that Gore didn't really care to be in politics.

In addition, as Jimmy Carter well said (not being a hypocrite being his "baggage"): one can do more in the world outside the presidency than from within it.

Of course I wanted Gore as president. But I'm fine with Gore doing that he actually wants to do.

As for the various canards against Edwards: he came from nothing; he earned his money the old fashinoned way: by not inheriting. So what if he followed the cultural mores from whence he comes: he owns a big house. McSame owns 8 of them.

Gore was also hammered for owning a big house -- by those who own at least one huge glass house each.

Edwards is genuine.

How about no to Chuck Hagel and Mike Bloomberg on the grounds that they aren't Democrats. I really worry that Obama might pick outside the party and nothing would make me angrier.

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Many I've spoken with feel Edwards is a good choice.

Edwards has much influence with those Hillary blue-collar voters Obama needs to bring on board.

Also, Edwards' honesty and passion helped lead and pave the way for Obama to be able to tell more truth. If Edwards had not so brazenly drummed on some of the root problems that plague our government, the media would have been able to paint Obama as extreme when he started with a very similar--but a bit safer--version of truth.

Edwards took some of the hits for Obama on this and I think he's played a meaningful part in Obama's success. They have already proven a good team!

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