Qaddafi gave up terrorism because of sanctions. Kim Jong Il looks like he’s about to blow up the cooling tower at Yongbyon for the same reason. Sanctions have a spotty record, consisting of either total failure or tepid success. Since they are normally accompanied with other means of persuasion (leaders’ statements, incentives for good behavior, mediated talks) it’s impossible to attribute success to the “sticks” alone.

For these reasons, sanctions are always a touchy issue. But this is especially true when discussing Iran. Far-reaching sanctions now in place inflict pain upon a people who, in great numbers, buck the conservative values that the Iranian regime forces upon them.

 The debate over whether or not the U.S. should negotiate with Iran is, in the face of new sanctions on Iran’s financial institutions, at the fore of public debate. It’s rare that a nuanced foreign policy issue gets any attention around the country. I’d like to weigh in and keep the conversation going.

 Normally, I’d advocate public diplomacy over coercive measures. However, when I look at Libya and North Korea and then consider Iran’s unique population, I think that sanctions are the right way of going about this.

 Qaddafi, much like the leadership in Iran, sought to unite his people by advocating radical nationalism and publicly snubbing America and Europe. These similarities considered, there are some critical differences between the situations in Iran and Libya that make Iran more vulnerable to tough sanctions.

 Unlike Iran, Qaddafi had a wide base of potential support to work with. He was able to draw on Arab nationalism throughout the entire Middle East rather than having his efforts confined to one country. Iran, however, does not enjoy this large bloc of brothers.

  If we consider Iran to be powerful, it is but a strong black sheep in a family of body-builders. Even if Iran were able to turn its Shiite majority into a monolith, it would still have to face the reality of Sunni strength in the region. Iran is incapable of mobilizing a huge support base and, even internally, there is a disconnect between the leadership and the people.

 Despite this fact, past American efforts to fund dissident groups have failed. When it was revealed that Iranians advocating human rights and civil liberties were receiving American funds, they were discredited as stooges for the West. The media as well as the citizenry rejected any legitimacy these groups had enjoyed once it was revealed that Americans had been funding their projects.

 I suggest that, instead of tainting legitimate opposition movements with overt funding, we continue with sanctions and let displeasure with the current regime generate authentic dissident groups. If the CIA wants to give some money to revolutionaries, all transactions must be kept completely covert. An Iranian dissident jailed for over a year in solitary confinement discouraged public funding of pro-American radio stations in Iran.

 Regionally, Iran does not have the same support structure that the culturally-Arab Libya used when sanctions were first imposed. Additionally, France (which has historically ignored sanctions and provided hostile countries with vital support) has agreed to new sanctions against Iran.  Efforts are underway to convince Germany to do the same. On top of all this, the Iranian people largely oppose the current regime and many do not support its nuclear program.

         Sanctions are not always successful, but they’ve worked against stronger adversaries in the past. When the gross dissent within Iran is coupled with its outsider status as a Persian country in an Arab region, the chances of Iran receiving regional and domestic support dwindle.

 It took years for sanctions to work against Libya. According to the NIE, Iran is a decade or more away from producing a nuclear weapon. In this span of time, sanctions will quicken the downfall of Iran’s leadership. It will either succumb to its own weakness or to its peoples’ strength.

Whether or not we pursue other diplomatic means of stopping its nuclear program, sanctions should continue until we create a breakthrough.