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REPOST: Why the Superdelegates WILL Weigh In June 4th
In celebration of the final week of primaries, I ask that you Rec this repost aplenty. And now, without further commercial interruption...
They've waited, watching Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama battle
through the last remaining states. But I have a feeling they are not
amused.
The superdelegates understand that Clinton has fought a
losing game for some time, that she has moved the goal posts repeatedly
to reset the clock, that she has needlessly divided the party to the
breaking point. Most of all, they understand that where she has won,
she has won among those more susceptible to the implicit racism of her
electability argument.
That is why they will weigh in en masse on June 4th.
In Kentucky, the 21 percent of voters who said race was a factor in their decision went for Clinton by 81-16 percent. A Chicago Tribune story this morning explained the situation in small Munfordville, Ky., this way:
"Right now it's not that Hillary attracts the white vote," said Jack Bunnell, 79. "It's that Obama's black."
It's a notion Clinton's campaign has been subtly pushing, claiming that
only she can secure a Democratic vote in many large, predominantly
white expanses of America — particularly in states like Ohio,
Pennsylvania and West Virginia, potential keys to the fall election.
But it wasn't just race that led to Clinton's blowout win in Kentucky tonight. Of the 16 percent in exit polls who cited gender as an important consideration, 79 percent voted for Clinton. Education, income and city vs rural all played some role, as well, though to a smaller degree.
Have I mentioned? the superdelegates are NOT amused. To explain more fully:
They will not overturn the pledged delegates Superdelegates know that Clinton long ago lost the pledged delegates, and they will not dare to split blacks, the most loyal of any Democratic constituency, from the party base by overturning those pledged delegates.
They watched Hillary slice and dice voters
Clinton made a strategic decision to contest the nomination beyond any reasonable odds of winning. To keep the supers from weighing in early and ending it, she made a Hail Mary pass. She argued that those calling for her to quit were sexist, an argument that peeled off more women voters from Obama. She argued that she was more masculine and peeled off good ol' boys who were always concerned anyway by what a black guy with balls might do with their wives. Then she appealed right out loud to "hard-working, white Americans" and, sure enough, won over more of the same.
They watched her split the party
While Hillary was slicing and dicing, something else was happening, too. Her supporters were becoming more and more polarized, threatening in ever greater numbers to thwart Obama in the general election.
They would have stepped in by now, but...
They couldn't stop her. If they had tried to intervene for Obama, the Clinton supporters would cry foul and defect for good, with no hope for party unity. And the perception, driven by Hillary, that superdelegates were interfering with the will of the people, would have pushed the protest vote for Hillary in the remaining primaries to catastrophically embarrassing margins for Obama in places just such as Kentucky.
They. Are. Not. Amused.
They will deliver the coup de grace with a terrible swift sword on June 4th. They are not about to let her circus continue. She has thrown kerosene into the big tent. They are not amused.
Comments (21)
I just want to let everybody know, for historical reference, that June 1 was the day an explosion at a coal mine killed 236 in Fukuoka, Japan.
I just automatically think of June 1 as Fukuoka, Japan Coal Mine Disaster Day, in case that ever pops up in conversation and it seems inexplicable or inappropriate to you.
That's just how I remember it's June 1.
So don't freak out or make a big deal out of it if I bring it up.
June 1, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Ripper. You have just made it possible for people to sleep better tonight. Since watching her big win today & listening to the pundits trying to stir up doubts once again the nerves are close to shattering. You are always the voice of reason. We know better but Pat Buchanon turns me purple.
Please let the reasoning you have layed out come to fruition.There is not a lot of time for the healing & we all know it is going to take all of us to make our long, long dream come true. November 2000 seems a very long time ago.
June 1, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
So I see we've reached the phase of the campaign where we: Punctuate. After. Every. Word. Period.
This is the Third. Time. I've. Seen it in 36 hours.
C'mon, we're the thinkers, right? We shouldn't be communicating on a fourth grade level in a sixth grade world.
(This is all w/ no offense intended to the poster or anyone else. I've. Done. It. Several. Times. Myself.)
Peace.
June 1, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny you say you've seen it three times in the past 36 hours. It has not been posted since the day of the Ky primary.
June 1, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
P.S. Thank. You.
June 1, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sincerely hope that you are correct. The only better news we could get would be if enough declared tomorrow before Tuesday's primary. Her speech today about no nominee on Tuesday and her popular vote garbage is borderline insulting.
June 1, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just want to let everybody know, for historical reference, that June 2 was the day the Court of Oyer and Terminer convened for the Salem Witch Trials.
I just automatically think of June 2 as Salem Witch Trials Day, in case that ever pops up in conversation and it seems inexplicable or inappropriate to you.
That's just how I remember it's June 2.
So don't freak out or make a big deal out of it if I bring it up.
June 2, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is so wrong because it doesn't matter.
Clinton will hopefully not make this a fight until the convention.
But the fact is... Obama can't win enough pledged delegates to clinch the election and, even if all the supers come our en masse to support Obama, Clinton could reasonably stay in the race until the convention and try to get as many supers as possible to switch sides.
This very stupid system of rules that our party has gives Clinton every incentive to stay in the race until the absolute last moment.
June 2, 2008 1:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
She could stay in and she may have reasons, but if she does, she's done as a democrat in this party with it's leaders and I don't think she's quite ready for that either. She seems to thrive on politics. How far would she get with no support in the upper levels of the party. And without supporters who would in many cases not want to break with the party either. She has something to lose besides her mind if she pushes this too far. Remember when she promised to work her heart out for the nominee? She'll have to regroup, but she has shown herself to be tough and I think she'll party up. She really is the one to bring her supporters back home. As one of her supporters said in the wing up to last week-end---"We're fighting hard for Hillary because we believe in her. But in the end if the nominee is Obama, we'll support him because Hillary will make us."
June 2, 2008 2:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
She won't necessarily finish herself with the party by staying in. She remains very popular here in New York. The party would be foolish to marginalize a New York senator.
June 2, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
She is pissing off even New Yorkers. Perhaps if she keeps this up RFK jr will chalenge her in the primary. (What is the emotacon for crossed fingers?)
June 2, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please remember that this is the Clinton campaign we are talking about.
The communication from the Hillary camp today has been that 'SHE will be the nominee'-Ickes, 'Let's keep fighting' - Hillary, Bill said something about a suprise being in store for everyone, and McAuliffe said something about how the race would continue after Tuesday.
Clinton is declarying victory based on the popular vote and she will use this to pressure the superdelegates NOT to overturn the will of the voters.
This truth about the popular vote needs to get out into the press repeatedly while she is making this argument. What she is doing is a subtle sort of swiftboating... saying that you've won and your opponent has lost 'according to the will of the voters', even if it is inaccurate and untrue...some will believe it.
June 2, 2008 4:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mrs. Clinton and her slimey cronies are about to find out that their new term "automatic delegates" aren't so 'automatic' after all. She was counting on strong arming and intimidation and outrageous spin.
Superdelegates aren't stupid as the brilliant Donna Brazille showed on Saturday and on Meet the Press. Automatic for the people: Obama!
When do you think Al Gore, Jimmy Carter and Rep. Clyburn will come out for Obama?
June 2, 2008 4:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think there's a flaw in your reasoning: Neither candidate is winning this without superdelegates. The number that matters: the number of total delegates.
If the supers are so upset, they could have come out at any number of times to send a message of what they believe the Democratic party stands for. But they didn't. Not in sufficient enough numbers to show leadership. Their silence emboldened her. A clear message from superdelegates that "hard working white Americans" is an unacceptable statement would have made her re-think the rhetoric. A decent slapdown by at least 10 supers after the RFK remark would have sent a message that we don't condone reckless talk from someone who claims to be "ready on Day One".
The party allowed this. As HIllary incited her supporters and freed them to be violently racist, using sexism as a crutch for every mistake Hillary has made in this campaign, the angry, hateful, racist rhetoric on behalf of a Democratic presidential candidate -- at any point enough supers could have come out, endorsed Obama and thereby sent the message of what the Democratic party is supposed to look like. But they didn't. If the party implodes, if we lose in November, the superdelegates and our party leadership are complicit by their silence.
June 2, 2008 7:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it might have been more a deer in the headlights thing. By the time Clinton's strategy had become apparent, the tone of the primary had to have been the SD's main concern. They couldn't simply come in with the coup de grace once we were so far into the process. It was mostly Hillary's effort that tied their hands. By the time it became apparent that Hillary couldn't take over the lead, it was way too late to stop it.
Still, I am not so sure they wanted to stop it. I think there is a good chance that Howard Dean and the SDs wanted this to go to all 50 States to set-up for the general. Obama now has robust organizations and volunteers in every state. McCain starts the general election ten steps behind. The RNC must compete in states that haven't been in play for at least a generation or two.
At the end of the day, I think they made a couple calculated risks. One was that Hillary's supporters, at the end of the day, could mostly be persuaded to vote for Barack by November. They also accounted for the new voters, independents and moderate republicans to off-set any truly pissed Hillary fans who decide to bite off their nose to spite our face.
Second, once they saw her strategy would be throwing all the RNC talking points at Barack in the primary, thus giving him time to defuse those arguments for the general, I think they used it as testing-ground for how they would counter those kinds of tactics. By and large, Barack has been successful. He will also benefit from the public's well-known fatigue factor. Most of the talking points are so played out that McCain won't know what to do besides flail about in the same manner as the Clinton campaign has done.
I love that McCain has no choice but to use a losing strategy. The irony is palpable.
June 2, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
"This truth about the popular vote needs to get out into the press repeatedly while she is making this argument. What she is doing is a subtle sort of swiftboating... saying that you've won and your opponent has lost 'according to the will of the voters', even if it is inaccurate and untrue...some will believe it. "
A very astute comment.
I heard NPR repeat her popular vote mythology -- mythology because she counts fraudulent votes like Michigan and deliberately excludes caucus states.
The media seems intent on buying the bullshit Clinton wants to sell - even at this late date.
June 2, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have noticed NPR repeatedly shilling for Clinton. WTF is up with that? I thought NPR had more class.
June 2, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I still believe it would be best if enough supers came out before end of vote count tomorrow to allow voters tally to push him over the top.
June 2, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you and yesterday's post by Connie Manes. It would be terrific if the states gave Obama the win.
June 2, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have noticed NPR talking about her candidacy as if she had as much chance of winning as Barack. They seem like well-worked over refs.
Can you guess how they were talking about Huckabee as McCain pulled away?
June 2, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Clinton is declaring victory based on the popular vote and she will use this to pressure the superdelegates NOT to overturn the will of the voters".
I think your point is well-taken.
They tried to overturn the outcome of the election by doing a bait and switch with MI.
With Harold Ickes as her strategist and a majority of RBC members in her camp, AND her name the only one on the ballot, it's hard to believe that Clintonian politics wasn't at play. They could feign calls for a revote but they already had the MI primary outcome they wanted in the bag.
Clearly Harold Ickes overestimated his power.
Hell hath no fury like a Clinton campaign scorned.
June 2, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
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