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Rasmussen Reports: Democrats Are Already Unifying
Looks like the party is unifying even before this speech:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When “leaners” are included, Obama now leads 48% to 45%. Leaners are survey respondents who initially do not favor either candidate but indicate their support on a follow-up question. One week ago today, McCain had the edge over Obama, 46% to 43%.There are other detail in the poll which is important, but this nugget seems appropriate today.
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Obama’s bounce is primarily the result of Democrats beginning to unify behind his candidacy. For the first time all year, Obama is supported by 80% of Democrats over McCain. In recent months, his support from Democrats has typically been in the high-60’s or low-70’s range.
McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds an eight-point lead among unaffiliated voters. The bad news for McCain is that there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans. Obama’s party now enjoys a ten-percentage point advantage in terms of party identification.
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Comments (58)
John McSame isn't going to know what hit him.
June 7, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gramps is so screwed.
June 7, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good. Screw him and the Bush he rode in on.
June 8, 2008 2:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you want to digg this, you can do so here:
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Rasmussen_Poll_Democrats_Are_Already_Unifying
;-)
June 8, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just found this interesting breakdown from June 3rd:
Sounds like landslide numbers to me in the climate.
June 8, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
i am afraid you are incorrect. even if 80 to 90% of dems vote for OBAMA it is not nearly enough to win. there are more than enough who will Vote Mccain or sit it out.
June 7, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well aren't you a ray of sunshine.
June 7, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and to my eyes this particular ray seems to be coming from the right . . .
June 7, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen. It's funny how anyone (other than a rethug or Obama hater) can look at this & see a negative.
The primary healing has only just begun and the party is already unified.
June 7, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tis thou Michelle who be incorrect. McCain is toast.
The NYT pointed out recently that if you look at many of the big states that Obama lost to Clinton, including CA, NY, NH, OH, PA, Texas, and many more: Obama got more votes in "losing" the state than McCain got in "winning". Not even close in most. In PA for example, Obama won just over 1,000,000 votes, McCain 500,000 and change. Plus Clinton won over 1,200,000. If McCain is counting on a large number of those 1,200,000 to vote for him...
He is so toast.
June 7, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for reminding us about this. Michelle seems to be one of those dead-enders who aint' never coming around or never planned on it becuase she's a repub supporter.
June 8, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the Dems lose this election, they don't deserve to exist.
June 7, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right AND they won't.
June 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Dems are "they", what "we" group do you belong to?
June 7, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I look forward to laughing at those who think this is a close one.
June 7, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It isn't even going to be close.
June 7, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Recommended. I like a bit of data on a Saturday morning. Unity bounce, here we come!
June 7, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
This does not surprise me in the least, but I'm certainly glad that the poll numbers are showing it to be true. I can only assume it's going to continue on this trend, especially after Clinton's concession speech.
June 7, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
It can only get better from here.
June 8, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if I myself a Republican since birth, switched to the Democratic party a year ago, I don't think that I'm alone.
Nice research, Joshua, by the way.
June 7, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You were a Republican only a year ago? Congratulations for coming to the dark side.
June 7, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why thank you, Lis.
So, how long was your treatment of antibiotics for that republicanism you caught?
[wink wink]
Welcome aboard.
June 7, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
i think lis said before that it was a birth defect. don't know if she had surgery, or was miraculously healed, but am pretty sure antibiotics had nothing to do with it.
June 7, 2008 11:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah! It was a bush.
June 8, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
LisB - I've been reading your posts for a long time and you seem way to sharp to have been a Republican that recently. Did you vote for Bush in '04? What was the turning point in your change of heart?
June 8, 2008 1:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Watch for more GOP trolls disguising themselves as Hillary supporters. From the RNC today:
http://www.gop.com/news/NewsRead.aspx?GUID=b931e382-26cb-4c86-aa41-52f28cc8383dThe only hope they have is to try to continue the disunity.
June 7, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, I think we got one a couple of post below this one. ;-)
June 8, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I love that 10 point advantage in party affiliation! With the energy behind this election and a lot of hard work to get out the vote; this could be an amazing year for Democrats up and down the ticket!
June 7, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really good post.
The Great and Growing Divide
Many of us watched today as Hillary Clinton said something that physically hurt to hear. She asked us to support Barack Obama. Loyal Democrat that she is, and true to her word, Hillary did the unimaginable. She asked the rest of us to support someone that many of us actually loathe. And that is putting it mildly.
But Hillary did something else today that is already having ramifications throughout the country. Hillary supporters are taking sides. And there are basically two camps. One camp that is sticking with the party and one camp that isn’t
Reforming the party from within is wishful thinking. The only way a party reforms is by humiliating defeat, running off the rails, or egregious abuse in the opposition party.
If BO is elected, they will be in charge of the party…in fact are in charge of the party as we speak. Try to go talk to them about reform. Go talk to them about counting every vote…about changing the caucus system to transparent primaries. Tell them how you feel about it. I think we all know what the attitude will be.
For me…my only recourse is to withhold my support from the current party leadership and the BO party leadership. It’s a drop in the bucket but I don’t feel like I will be complicit in Republican style tactics…even if they worked.
Ronmaven echoed the sentiment and clarified it:
The defeat of Obama would be the best kick in the pants for the DNC we could possibly deliver. You want to CHANGE the party? Vote for McCain. You want the party to only get worse? Vote for O.
To some, NOT supporting Obama is the moral thing to do.
Ccwarrior perhaps says it best:
easy decision for me I will sellout the party that SOLD me out. and I can live with that. I would never dis-respect my daughters, and vote for Obama after the treatment they witnessed from him doing this election …NEVER
But I have saved the best for last. Before I put it out there I want to make one thing very clear. I have nothing but the deepest respect for linfar. She has been a staunch Hillary supporter and she is such an excellent writer. I just happen to totally disagree with her about Obama and unfortunately may have to write things in the future that criticize her positions. It isn’t something I look forward to.
But having said that I think that unfortunately linfar grabbed a mug full of the Cult-Aide today because low and behold, she quotes from none other than the Prince of Darkness himself (Jonathan Singer) to make her point.
from mydd
Singer: Can you speak to the online supporters, the people online who are so strong for Hillary, who don’t want to see her leave, as a strong
Hillary supporter yourself?
Sen. Chuck Schumer: As a strong Hillary support I say, look, I was for Hillary all the way. I was sort of the first Senator to endorse her and I guess I’ll be the last off the bandwagon, which I guess will be tomorrow. But, having said that, I would say to all of the people online, there’s too much at stake to sit this out, to be angry, to be bitter. There is too much at stake. A Supreme Court with more Alitos and Roberts. A continuation of the war in Iraq.
A failure to have a healthcare policy that helps people. A failure to have an energy policy that frees us from foreign oil. All these are such huge things that we have to do what Hillary said there, which is overcome, not look back, even though there are lot’s of disappointments, but look forward.
I expected these bugaboos coming from Schumer. But a little reality never hurt anyone. Except Cultists I’m told. We hear the same nonsense you would expect from otherwise seemingly reasonable people. The trouble is that they think they will be able to bamboozle and scare us with their line of bullshit.
Everything Schumer mentions is something that the Congress controls, not the President. Supreme Court… confirmed by the Senate. Iraq War funding…. controlled by Congress. Health Care policy…. written by Congress. Energy policy… written by Congress.
SO WAKE UP! And stop letting these people get away with lying to you.
The reason Bush has got away with so much and has done as much damage as he has these past 7 years is because of a weak, feckless and complicit Congress. A Congress that has allowed him to do everything he has done. Because a strong Congress acting in the best interests of the American people would never have allowed Bush to do many of the things they are so fond of complaining about.
Where were the Articles of Impeachment? The Speaker of the House said that they would never be introduced.
Why has the Congress continued to fund the war? The Senate Majority leader doesn’t know how to throw a knock out punch.
Why are Americans still being spied upon? WHY?!?
In fact, the Supreme Court that Schumer and others are warning us about has done more to stop Bush than all of the Democrats in Congress combined. So enough of these silly myths. I half expect Obama to come out next and state: “You are either for us or against us.” Wanna guess what my answer will be?
These spats. This falling apart is expected. And it will likely become more vicious and personal as the days wear on. I fully understand those that are toeing the party line. I used to be one of them. Until this year. Until the Democratic party proved to me that it didn’t really stand for anything any more.
June 7, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it interesting that you made this same exact post, verbatim, in my recent blog entry.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/06/a-genuine-question-for-honest.php
June 7, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the third cut & past of this by michelle I've seen today. There are likely more.
Isn't that the definition of spam?
June 7, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and I would say perhaps trolling.
June 7, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Certified troll!
At least "she" (a gender assumption we should all doubt) is obvious, some of our more subtle trolls are transitioning to a new mode since they can no longer hide between the mask of intra-party squabbling.
Makes me wonder just how much of that squabbling actually came from posers and sockpuppets who have never voted for a Democrat in their lives.
One good way to spot them is that they are always reminding us of their bona fides.
If they are really a loyal Dem, why do they insist on repeating it so often?
June 8, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it interesting that you made this same exact post, verbatim, in my recent blog entry.
---------------------------------------------------
And is that a crime? I have on occasion copy/pasted a response to a couple of threads rather than rewrite it. I don't agree with all of what michelle posted. For one I find loathe to be much too strong a word to discribe my views while she suggests its too mild. Yet she does make some valid points and the only response I've seen to them is complaints that she posted it a few times.
June 8, 2008 2:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
ocean,
It is the whole picture that you fail to see. Look around...
June 8, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe Oceankat needs some coser scrutiny, too?
Trolls defenders and enablers should be looked at very closely, good thing there's a total archives on this blog, we cn all go back and read wome previous posts and comments. It makes the research much easier.
And the patterns of deception all that more visible. One at a time, they might slip past our tin-foil hats, but add their words together in one long read and the evidence of their deception and subterfuge becomes much more visible.
Try it, just click the name of whoever you suspect, and read their past posts and comments all lined up for the world to see, it can be very revealing.
June 8, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
rotflmao, let the purge continue. The echo chamber must be absolute.
June 8, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh...doofus...in case you hadn't noticed, the people who wanted reform in the party voted for Obama. No more DLC stranglehold on the party...which for some reason, you seem to think was serving all of us quite well.
June 7, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Coroner I must aver,
I thoroughly examined her.
And she's not only merely dead,
She's really, most sincerely dead.
Then this is a day of Independence,
for all true Democrats and their descendants.
June 7, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If any. Hillary is Dorothy. She was following her heart's desire. And you were there ... and you ... and you.
June 8, 2008 2:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're wrong, you couldn't possibly be more wrong. Hillary is more alive, more respected and more powerful after that speech than before.
June 8, 2008 3:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree.
June 8, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
June 8, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
You've been asleep through this whole primary season, its no surprise to see you're still snoozing.
June 8, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, my democratic party stands for health care, civil rights, respect in the world, economic growth, feminism, environmental protection, aid to poor nations, sound AIDS and contraception policy,gov't spending on medical research, privacy, etc. That is also Hillary Clinton's democratic party, as well as Barack Obama's. If you respect what Hillary is fighting for and believes in, you will swallow your anger and vote for Obama. If you do not, I will have to go spend another weekend registering voters, I guess. But I believe you do respect Hillary. I know you're crushed she lost, and I'm sorry for that. If you would like to have a reasoned discussion of this "count every vote" thing, we can do that, too--the Dems do stand for that, and I look forward to Senator Obama's work on voting rights, its just some people believe that it's far more disenfranchising to have a primary that is not supposed to count and then count the results then vice versa. Your opinion may be different, but can I assume you then want to count the votes of people who voted in the non-binding primaries in Washington, etc?
The strange thing about your argument is first you say that it doesn't matter who is president because Congress will control everything, then next that Congress is feckless and worthless. So then it matters who is president, yes?
June 8, 2008 1:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Both my sister and I were very active Hillary supporters, but I have so much respect for her and for her judgment that I would never do or say anything about her good advice about supporting Mr. Obama. They had a fair fight. And Obama won and like the gracious and thoughtful person Hillary is, she now puts the good of her country ahead of her own feelings. I will tell you this, both my sister and I, steadfast Hillary supporters, are gladly going to follow her advice and work and work for Obama's election. To do less is to throw a bunch of crap at Hillary. So go ahead and act however you like, but for me, I honor Hillary far too much to pull a stunt like that. So I say, you go Obama and I will give and work as much as I possibly can. God bless America and thank God for a woman like Hillary who is not so small as to just pout for the next few months, It surely shows her great character and I intend to honor her by doing just what she said.
June 8, 2008 3:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
chronospark what's up with you folks accusing people of trolling? i have been visiting this site longer than most of you here probably have.
June 7, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're out of the woods
We're out of the dark
We're out of the night...
Step into the sun
Step into the light
Keep straight ahead for
The most glorious place - on the face —
Of the earth or the sky
Hold onto your breath
Hold onto your heart
Hold onto your hope —
March up to the gate
And bid it open—
Open—
June 7, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
This should be the theme of the Democrat Party.
June 7, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did we learn anything this primary season? Any time you think an election is going to be a cakewalk in any way, you end up where Hillary Clinton (who I like and admire very much) is right now -- on the wrong side of one of the biggest upsets in modern American politics.
Take nothing for granted. No electoral vote, no Senate seat, no House seat is a freebie.
June 7, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent point. This also isn't like the primaries where you can slip up in one contest but learn from your mistakes and do better in the next. This is it, therer are no 2nd chances in the GE and the lives (literally & figuratively) of millions of people are depending on a win.
However, there is nothing like a little positive news to fuel the fight ahead of us.
June 8, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cakewalk? LOL. Did I ever imply that?
What I did imply is that the party is NOT divided like the media (and some HRC supporters) would have us all to believe.
If Obama is at 80% before HRC's concession/endorsement speech, than we're doing just fine when it comes to unity.
I'm not taking it for granted, just point out the facts to people who are worried about things that don't actually exists.
Like, for instance, Obama's "Latino problem", which are also non-existence. He blow McSame away with the Latino vote:
Problems promoted by HRC & the media as "huge" issue for Obama, aren't as problematic as they'd have everyone believe.
June 8, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, what the "10% more Democrats" figure doesn't account for is the fact that there are also many, many more "Independent" or "Unaffiliated" voters (terminology varies, and I personally kinda like "unaffiliated"). The 10% Dem/Rep gap has come about through shifts away from the Republican party - but these have been equally split amongst those who identify as Dems and those who identify as Indys.
According to thisPew report, in 2004 these groups were roughly even: 35% Dem, 33% Rep, 32% Ind
Independents, when pressed, split about even on their "leanings": 12% Dem, 11% Rep, 10% Neither
Compare to 2008 party affiliations:
36% Dem, 27% Rep, 37% Ind
The biggest gains have actually been in the Independent column. But this is still good news for Democrats, because when pressed, Indys in 2008 report the following "leanings":
15% Dem, 10% Rep, 12% Neither
So, if you add the self-identified Dem/Reps to the Indy "leaners," you actually get a 14% Dem advantage rather than the 9-10% advantage that current registration figures show.
Sure, we still have to work our butts off. But we do have a numeric advantage that we haven't had in a long time.
June 8, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. Agree 100%.
I think the real point, for me, is that Dems are NOT split. At least, not like the media leads everyone to be.
And it will only improve from here.
June 8, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Might want to look at these Rasmussen breakdowns, which are even better and more in line with other breakdowns that I've seen recently. When I thought about Pews' again, I thought they were off a bit.
I just found this interesting breakdown from June 3rd:
Sounds like landslide numbers to me in the climate.
June 8, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is up to 50% in today's Rasmussen - Leading McC by 7pts (50-43). It is 8 pts (48-40) when you take out the leaners.
I have posted about this before but 50% is a critical threshold. Once a candidate breaks the 50% mark, it tends to stick (eventually).
1) More than half of the electorate have expressed an interest in voting for the candidate
2) The other candidate can't just gain undecideds anymore, they have to 'steal' votes away from the leading candidate. This is much harder to do.
3) Herd mentality - people tend to go with the majority, especially low information voters.
Now, that being said - it is also only one poll just barely at 50% and there is a lot of real estate between now and Nov so this can and certainly will change between now and then. This is also a post-nom bounce that won't hold completely over that time. And of course as we all painfully know, national opinions are meaningless because it is how the Electoral College votes that counts.
BUT Obama is starting from a really good place and this bodes well for the long-haul (certainly better than having it be the reverse)
June 8, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Signs are looking really good. McSame's free ride is over and the question all this time should have been, Why isn't HE polling way ahead of Democrats with all the bad "infighting' they were doing?
I mean, he had the floor to himself while Obama went through the worst 2 months of the campaign and he never pulled out a head.
Now, the spotlight will be right above him. He isn't going to know what hit him.
June 8, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for this post. Just from a statistical point of view, to have those polls of Obama vs McShame up beside Hillary vs McShame was like splitting the Dems to begin with (as if it was a 3 way race!). Now that Hillary has endorsed Obama and the party is coming together, we'll see the stats looking much better for the General. A better indicator might be the In-Trade Market, where Obama is now above 60% and McShame isn't even breaking 40%.
We can't rest on our laurels. There's lots of work to be done. But we're united! And: YES WE CAN!!
June 8, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
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