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October Surprise?

McCain says,



I'll overtake Obama 48 hours before the election.

So he's losing in popularity on the economy, health care, the war, and pretty much everything else but terrorism.  Can we decode the message this way,

After a timely terrorist attack, my policies will be so irrelevant and America so scared, I will win by default.


Comments (46)

You look young enough to be the son my father never had.

You seem young enough to not realize what is happening this year.

But: I love you anyway.

Um, we're electing a -- hopefully -- new president?

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"You seem young enough to not realize what is happening this year."

I don't get this comment. I think an October surprise is exactly what McCain is counting on. Whether it be a well-timed message from Bin Laden, a terrorist attack on one of our allies (perhaps a bombing in Paris, or London, or Munich), a terrorist attack on our soil, or a staged event that gives us the moral justification for War with Iran, it's coming.

Were you suggesting it's not? Perhaps I misunderstood your comment.

I don't get the second of LisB's contentions, either.

I think Dude's spot on. I had not seen the McCain quote he posted (been busy most of the day; did he say it today?). But it's scary shit and points exactly, I think, to M.B.'s posited potentiality.

LisB, did you mean something other than to discount the possibility of an October surprise?

I think August, actually.

Hold up kids,
I'm firmly in Obama's court but we have to check the context of statement before we assign nefarious thought behind them.

Here's the link to the Q&A where he made the quote. It's about 11 minutes in.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/25429119#25413811

McCain was answering a question about being so far behind and that he would have to campaign very hard to catch Obama.

Hold on kid,

McCain was answering a question about... "How important is Ohio?" McCain brought up, by himself, his underdog status and his comeback kidness.

thequis may not notice the lack of context in all McCain's spoken text. Whereas Giuliani brings 9-11 specifically into conversations about what's for dinner, McCain brings his non-surrender-monkey big strong daddyness into conversations about freaking Ohio's importance in the fall!

You tell me thequis, what relevance?

Frank Rich today basically agrees with everything satyagraha says here. (He also gives a HUGE shout out to TPM at the end in the 2nd to last paragraph...)

nytimes.com/2008/06/29/opinion/29rich.html

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I think anyone who claims to be able to know what the political climate is going to be in November is kidding themselves and, crucially, that sort of smugness - believing Obama has it in the bag - is dangerous. It allows strong progressives to wallow in grievances about him, not donate as much as they might otherwise have, and maybe not get out and organise. We need everyone focused on the fact that McCain might be able to get over the line in the electoral college and go out there and work their butts off to try to stop it happening.

Fair point.

I took McCain's comment as sinister too, but I think it's a bluff. He's just trying to keep his 15 or so supporters on board. But just to be on the safe side, the Obama campaign had better be ready to drop some dirt at a moment's notice. Keating Five redux, anyone?

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Don't underestimate the depravity of the Repugnican Right. With their brand tarnished and repudiated and facing minority status for years to come they have nothing to lose that's not already lost. It's well within the realm of possibility for them to stage a catastrophic attack on an American city(don't forget those nukes the Air Force "accidently" misplaced) and declaring martial law thereby suspending the elections indefinately. Bu$h and company are traitors to the ideals this nation was founded on and have no respect for the Constitution or any other laws, national or international.

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Well, we hear that a "crude, low-yield nuke" (actually a Russian, American, or Israeli device built or modified to resemble something that "terrorists" might get their hands on, and which left the appropriate radiochemical chemical signature) has gone off along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, you'll know that Cheney, Putin, the Christian Right, and the American Likudniks have got their October Surprise.

Just imagine what they'll say.

I hesitate to bring up the subject, but I have come to the conclusion that an October surprise possibility is the reason for the hastily-made FISA compromise. I imagine the Dems ways of picking up repub chatter and that they concluded it was best to move on this before something happened.

s/b Dems have ways...

My kingdom for a preview function! My mind and my send finger out pace my typing skills.

I'm not worried about it. Thanks to Charlie Black's gaffe last week, any terrorism that gets off between now and November could very well bite McGoo on the ass.

Beside, McGoo doesn't even know if he'll have a BM between now and November.

What?!

LOL!

How about a NOVEMBER surprise a la Diebold? How about a mysterious win in close states when the exit polling suggests a win for Obama? He's talking about a 48-hour turnaround before the election. I think he's been told by those who did it before that the fix is in.

Of course a bomb - anywhere - would be right up his alley, although I can't for the life of me see how they get these supposed "creds."

Wasn't George warned about 911?
Didn't he tell the CIA guy who warned him, "OK, now you've covered your ass?"
Didn't George then go on vacation?
Didn't he sit and stare into space when the planes hit?

And the Repubs get credit for "keeping us safe?

I just don't get it.

PS == Don't worry about Lis. She just wishes she had your youthly youth!

You're right. Plus, I can't see how Republicans can benefit from any sort of attack while Bush is in charge. Wouldn't they be blamed for allowing such an attack? Certainly they cannot claim they would be better able to protect America after such an event.

Agreed. Obama would be all over them if something happened on "their" watch. And so would I. As long as they are in charge, they are supposed to keep proving that they keep us safe. If they manage not to prove that at the last minute - say in October - then not only is their whole contention screwed, but it's not out of the question to view the event with considerable suspicion. I don't see it as a win for them. But I hope we keep the lead so high that they couldn't overcome it with a rocket-powered pole vault.

If we have another election with a 55 to 60 percent turnout and it comes down to a single state like Ohio or Florida, then I would agree that manipulation of the machines and voter disenfranchisement could lead to another 2000 or 2004 election.

I think the electoral collage math plus increased turnout this year (based on the primary numbers) will mitigate the effectiveness of those tactics.

The only way to change elections using the methods in place require voter apathy and a "swing-state" strategy by your opponent. Neither of those conditions exist this year for the neocons to exploit.

Call me cynical if you will, my take on this is as follows: Any sort of attack on us or our allies can now be seen either as something of a "false flag" operation intended to turn support to McShame, or as a total failure of the Bush/McShame axis of (truly incompetent) evil to do what they claim they will do - protect us from the evil terrorists.

And that is the counternarrative.

I'm not sure how well the "false flag" narrative would play to swing voters. At this point there is enough distrust of Bush that it might, but I'm not convinced that it will. Even if it truly were a false flag incident, and if it occurred 5 days before the election, I don't know that there'd be enough time to get the evidence out there.

Maybe a little pre-emptive "seeding" of the meme? Leading people to be very, very suspicious of anything that happens with dubious (immediate pre-election) timing?

As in - "If anything like that happens near election time, it's either a fake or a failure!"

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Republicans HAD the September Surprise in September 2006, remember? The Bin Laden tape? That was supposed to remind voters to be very afraid!

Bush may attack Iran between now and January 2009, but he's doing it more for his OWN legacy than to get McCain elected. He wants a continuation of his policies, but he's not taking any chances. He's trying to lock in his successor even if it's Obama. That's the SOFA with Iraq, the surge, and a basket-load of pardons for everybody connected with the Bush crime-family as they leave town.

It's unclear what the American people will think of $10 a gallon gas. They're not happy with $5 a gallon right now. Doubling the price of oil won't make them happier.

McCain might lose in a landslide if this rebounded against the Republicans. It would be the ultimate in cynicism to start another war at the very end of your term and leave an even bigger mess for the next President. That would be hard even for the slavish boot-licking media to explain away.

I am hoping that if there are any last minute horrors (à la Spain 2004 Elections,) people will know to choose something other that the BushCain failed moves. Those haven't worked: Bin Laden is still at large!!! And we have now a terrile mess in Iraq!!! Hello!!!

But then again, I still don't understand how Bush got re-elected...

Well, (she said, donning her fetching tinfoil bonnet) this is one great big reason - the October Surprise - that I think Obama has done the right thing with regard to FISA. FISA is obnoxious legislation as originally written - it was written to empower the executive to violate the constitution - that's the whole reason for the statute. Whether Obama votes in favor or against "telecom immunity" is so irrelevant that I'm shocked that that is the sticking point.

Be that as it may, If Obama had stood up and gone off on constitutional right and then we were attacked- he'd be fucking crucified for his vote against FISA, which is a national security measure - that's why it was enacted. And it was around long before Bush and other presidents have used it to authorize unwarranted searches. The difference is they met the requirement to go back to the FISA court. Bush was turned down twice, by the FISA court, which is a rubber stamp agency. He quit reporting after that and just totally ignored the law.

But the law he ignored is FISA. He didn't come up with it and it's going to be on the books long after President Obama's 2d term is done, in form or another, like it or not. And I don't, but it's not Obama's fault that the damn law exists.

Be that as it may, If Obama had stood up and gone off on constitutional right and then we were attacked- he'd be fucking crucified for his vote against FISA, which is a national security measure -

Yes. Yes. And Yes.

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Uh huh.

McCain's election odds are about as bad as Hillary's when she started that "anything can happen" RFK stuff. This is the same kind of BS.

But just as scary.

Tena - And how will you feel about Obama's FISA surrender if the FISA change bill is enacted, and then there is an October surprise/Diebold fraud/whatever and McCain is prez with the new, additional FISA powers at his beck and call???

Don't you see any danger in that at all???

I see danger in FISA right from the start - y'all don't seem to get this. I do not like FISA at all - didn't like the original one damn bit. It's just an empowerment to ignore the constitution.

What does that have to do with Obama? FISA was there before Bush, it is not going away altogether. It was enacted as a national security measure - and whether you or I like it - they are not voting on getting rid of it, dude. It was there before Bush - don't you get this?: It's not going away no matter what the vote on this revised version is. It will be revised again - this isn't about getting rid of it.

Tell it, sister. People talk as if this was some new thing. First the left was pissed off about the telecom immunity part. Now they seem to think we can dump the whole program. That wasn't the point, and it never will be the point.

That is wht the courts are for.

Do you think the suing the telecoms is the ne plus ultra of protecting our rights against the government?

I can predict with a lot of certainty several things that are likely to happen - one thing I know that will happen is that, as Patrick Fitzgerald ran into - the evidence is going to be classified information that the WH is going to fight giving up, and since this is a national security measure and the whole thing hinges on national security, the WH will win.

But it would never get that far, because another thing I'm pretty confident in predicting is that if any telecoms were sued in civil courts, and evidence could be gathered, the telecoms would all promptly settle.


If you don't want McLame with the powers that have been on the books allllllll these years, then make sure he loses.

That is not what I was talking about. I was talking about the courts as a remedy if the executive takes action against someone based on illegaly gathered intel. It is not a perfect defense against power grabs but it is the best available.

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altho I DO see suing the telcoms via nonprofits like EFF as having been the last, best hope to allow us to see the dirt underneath the Bush - Cheney carpet of combined globalized corporatism and egomaniacal monarchism -

HusseinTenax is probably right - that ignoring that long term need for Sunshine in order for a democracy to thrive - by refusing to speak on the Constitutional issues - may be Obama's only way to inoculate himself against what satyagraha & Fr. Rich worry over...

H. Texan is right, because - if we end up with McCain, our democracy will not only be foregoing 'sunshine' - but we can probably kiss the whole kit and kaboodle goodbye sooner rather than later. The guy is just SO unstable.

You seem to be oblivious to the expansion of spying powers in the new FISA bill. My comment talked about the FISA change bill - the compromise bill currently before the Senate. That's what I'm talking about, not the repeal of the existing statute.

Check out Sen. Feingold's excellent summary of the changes in the new bill. It can be read at http://feingold.senate.gov/issues_fisafacts.html

If you are against the existing FISA law, I can't understand why you are so cavalier about expanding it.

Yes. The existing FISA law erodes our 4th amendment rights, but it doesn't erase them completely. No law ever will. They will be erased by a constant erosion of those rights - bit by bit, step by step, exactly as contained in this new bill. That's just one reason to oppose it. Exactly what surrender of your 4th amendment rights will make you stand and fight? You need to stand up against the erosion of these rights not their sudden disappearance.

It was unclear from Feingold's site exactly which of those were new erosions and which of those were a failure to address rights that have already eroded. The way it was written, all of those (except the limited retroactive immunity) sounded like they were problems already existent in the existing FISA bill. (It was an interesting read, nonetheless.)

Telecoms aren't immune from criminal prosecution, only the torts. One more time: retroactive immunity revokes the lawsuits. FISA bill does not immunize companies from crimes against the state -- only individuals. Telecoms are still on the hook.

The October surprise will probably be the stock marketing crashing brought to you by the same people who gave us the $3 trillion war.

Folks,

There is one way you stop the FISA bill before it is enacted and that's with an election.

I don't think anyone is taking it lightly, what we are saying is the WH has stonewalled on any information on who or what has been spied on.

Step one. Get on record the who and what... Step two. Elect Dems in the house and senate
Step three. (completed in concert with step two... Elect BO POTUS).

I'm not worried about anything Republicans can do.

It's the ass hats in my own party who need to be shouted down.

You own a political party?

Maybe you all ought to see the movie "Uncounted" to understand McCain's sanguinity.

http://www.uncountedthemovie.com/

Mark, I don't like the sound of that. Off to watch it now.

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