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Obama's Strategy. Keeping Cool. or Killing Her Softly WIth His Song
The Obama strategy is very interesting at this stage. Rather than put up the dukes, and spend time exposing the hoax of her popular vote claim, Obama's folks are like "we're 20 supers away. Ignore her, she's already beaten. Invest this time going after McCain. He's made 4 major gaffes in a week. He's the real target."
It gives the Clinton's a free media space to push their "popular vote" case all weekend, while CNN is pretending Puerto Rico counts. But the Obamans understand the actually important days lately were Saturday in the committee, and tieing blue collar Indiana, which proved whites outside Appalachia will vote for him, making Hill's wins in WVA and KY as relevant as P.R.
Instead, the Obama campaign has decided it is a better strategy to not fight over her popular vote screed. I suspect inside the party, this fighting, from 150 delegates behind, is starting to piss off the important people, who worry about her damaging the nominee. Most agreed she could fight till the end of the primaries. She will look pathetic to them if she keeps this up another week. Still, it appears clear the networks will put her on the air as long as she keeps opening her mouth.
In light of this, I marvel at what is clearly Obama's strategy. Ignore her, declare victory and move ahead. Next week, he will be able to stand up and say "I have done everything I can to pacify this woman except quit. In my most televised speech, I called her a role model for my kids. I agreed to split Fla and Michigan in the way even Hillary people on the rules committee agreed was fair. I haven't taken a swing at her in a month. I've been campaigning against her and McCain for 2 months and I'm still winning everywhere except Appalachia. Wright and the church are history. My name was hardly mentioned in the Resko trial. "
Critics will call it arrogance, but this guy really knows how to keep his cool. To survey the battlefield and calculate which target matters and which one doesn't is a rare skill. Republicans beat Kerry because he miscalculated the impact of swift-boating. Obama beat Clinton because he targeted the right states and she didn't. Even against his his biggest problem, Wright, you can't say he hasn't been taking quality shots. 3 responses- dramatic speech, dump Wright and dump church; maybe later that some would like, but they were all decisive, and more 5 months is a long time for Repugs to flog that horse.
Critics say he's an empty suit. But he is a skinny black guy with a thin resume and the middle name Hussein. And he just beat an awesome candidate who started with a 20 point lead and the most valuable brand in Demoratic politics.
Maybe its time to admit this guy has uncommon political skills. While Hillary flailed away last week, Obama took on John McCain head on, besting him over both the G.I. Bill and the gaffe over pre surge levels. A Democrat holding off Hillary with one hand and beating a Republican war hero with the other over National Defense. While also manuvering the rules committee sucessfully. Again, that's surveying the battle field, chosing the right targets, and hitting them all dead on. Uncommon political skills.
With this new popular vote ad in S. Dakota, Hillary shows she will never give up. Obama will have to kill her. Interesting that he chooses to do it quietly, effectively, in the only way that counts, with delegates, instead of a big TV showdown. He gives up not a single anti Hillary soundbite. He's learned the networks only need one.
It may be November before we know if this strategy is effective. But I think we can tell what the Repugs think. Its been months since their main mouthpiece, Rush, has had a bad thing to say about Hillary. Talk radio remains a 24-7 Obama hate fest, while Terry M calls Fox fair and balanced. The right is still trying to help her win. That's because they are very good at picking the right target.














Comments (46)
Great insight. I learn something every day from the choices Obama makes, as I learn from posts like this one. Thanks.
June 1, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
What did you learn from his choice to stay in his church and by his main man, Rev. Wright? What did you learn from his choice to finally leave? He's the man, everything he does is so clever. I just sit here in awe of him every time he makes a choice - something beautiful is going to happen.
June 2, 2008 3:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let me guess. We learned that this is America and anyone can attend any church they like, and Obama liked Trinity? Is that right? And when the church became too much of a problem to deal with politically, he left? I'm sure you'll handle things better when you run for president.
June 2, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
And when the commander of the Titanic reached the bottom of the sea, he shouted out, "Abandon Ship!!!"
June 2, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
In addition to his own political burden, I understand that he was concerned about the burden of the media spotlight on his church and its members. Not that I think it was entirely altruistic, but I am sure the upheaval in the lives of his fellow congregants played a role.
June 2, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL I personally really appreciated Obama's whine that even the opinions of guest preachers were being imputed to him -- but then I knew that Father Pfleger is a friend of Obama's of some twenty years standing, that in an interview with Catherin Falsani for the Sun Times within the the last three years Obama called Pfleger one of his moral compasses and that Obama called Pfleger for help when he decided to uninvite Rev. Wright for the invocation according to some on the net.
What I am really having trouble computing is Obama's claim that he didn't have a clue that his 'conventional Christian faith' was going to become controversial. Since when is what Rev. Wright purveying simple conventional Christian faith and not simple hate-mongering?
June 2, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suppose you also think that Catholics approve of child molestation, right? Because last time I checked, the Catholic Church still has members.
Shepherds are responsible for their flocks, not the other way around, you fucking moron.
June 2, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think any of his opponents have a clue how to counter his strategies and tactics because they only know how to play politics one way. Old politics is a sure loser this year.
Not a moment too soon.
June 1, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw crap you already used the "chess-checkers" analogy! Sorry, I stepped on you.
June 1, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's giving Hillary just enough rope to hang herself. She seems happy to oblige.
June 1, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Excellent post.
I would just like to add that props should also go to David Axelrod and the rest of the crew. I can't tell you how happy I am with Obama's campaign. The whole team deserves a lot of credit.
And yes, Obama deserves a lot of credit for putting the team together. What a leader, eh?
June 1, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama campaign truly sees the forest for the trees. He is like a fine chess-player in that he uses math and research to look and plan many moves ahead in anticipation of his opponents. Thats why he can compensate for his mistakes and mis-steps because he gives himself room to recover.
Hillary was playing checkers and her campaign was all trees.
June 1, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't wait to see him on the world stage.
Even now other countries that are closely watching are interested. Very, very interested. They, like many of the people here at home, need to learn more about him to be sure of what they think they see. And they will.
It's understood that the more people listen to him, see him and understand him the more they believe that he is at the very least a good man.
Many countries will still hate the United States. But quietly it is possible that they can respect its President. Respect is important - especially to those that may mean us and / or our allies harm. Because they will believe that he says what he means and means what he says.
Many countries that we call friends will rejoice in a US President they can consider a man of honor. What a relief, for a change.
June 1, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am an expat teaching college women in the Middle East (UAE) and my students like Obama. One put it this way 'he looks like he could calm the world down, and the world needs calming down'. I mentioned that he is reputed to be a good listener and this student said 'good - Arabs really like to talk':D
Being overseas for the last 4 yrs had made me really appreciate the global community, and yes, the world is watching (and reading)!
June 2, 2008 3:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
You should write propaganda for North Korea.
Brilliant portrait of a Dear Leader. Perfect in every possible way, yet almost human.
June 1, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
You would have to resign before he could apply.
June 1, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
You seem barely human yourself, Lalo.
June 1, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Give Lis your hat, Lalo, before you say anything further. Give. Her. Your. Hat.
June 2, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lalo, I get it that your particular worry is the 'great leader/cult' meme. I think that's a little paranoid, but you're entitled.
I wonder if you saw the video of Hillary demonstrators Saturday, wailing and gnashing their teeth for the TV cameras? That seems pretty cult-like and slavish to me. Doesn't that bother you, too?
Personally, I don't believe in worshipping any person, but there IS a difference between hero worship and admiration. The former is for teen girls to do with rock singers. The latter is fine if you find someone who is worthy of it. Apparently you'd like to convince everyone that they're worshipers, when in fact most Obama fans here are in the second category. What's the problem with that?
If you want to admire Hillary (and that's a big IF; I actually think you're a McCAin troll trying to drive up Obama's negatives, son) then go right ahead.
June 2, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very reassuring post. It makes me a little nervous - can someone really win without counterattacking every smear? Without acting as amoral as the opposition?
I sure hope so. This week should be interesting, as Hillary loudly proclaims a popular vote victory (thereby disenfranchising caucus states). That screed should last about Tuesday night. Hopefully Wednesday a ton of superdelegates will endorse Obama, and that will be the end of that.
June 1, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am mollified by your analysis of the Montana/So Dakota Ad buy.
It also makes some sense I suppose that Obama conserve funds from use in primary ads to counter the falsehoods - even at the expense of some margins in both states and even a delegate loss or two, if that is the result of whatever effect those ads have on the race.
HOWEVER, I continue to think about all of those small businesses who are struggling to pay their staff and accounts payable without funds owed to them from Clinton, whose debt apparently remains while she spends the new money that came in on those ad buys.
And that brings me to the concept that a settlement attempt whereby Obama helps her pursue donors to make up her debt - rather than donors for his fight vs McCain will mean that he has effectively paid for h er final dishonest ad buys.
All while she proclaims in every interview today that she sees the race to acquire delegates as wide open because of her 'momentum'
The thought of him having to pay her bills in such a case truly grates.
June 1, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, dsalexan. But it would be another cool move to help her pay her bills. He could say its not for her, but for all the little guys she'd otherwise stiff. Supporters should cut him slack if he chooses that course, because if he makes that call, its part of the chess match. At this point I kinda trust that Obama is way more skilled at that than I.
June 1, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
He cannot legally use his campaign funds to pay off her debt. The best he could do is give a speech or two, after he is elected in November, at fundraisers for Hillary.
June 1, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The thought of him having to pay her bills in such a case truly grates."
Indeed. As someone who has donated a disproportionate amount of my grad student cashflow to the first campaign I have ever been able to full-throatedly support, I would really prefer Obama not to spend that on compensating Hillary's habit of stiffing the little man.
June 1, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re ad buys I read, on the principle of `all politics is local` I've been trying to read up as much local stuff on this as I could find and analyses form people on the ground. The overwhelming impression is that ad buys don't amount to much cf campaigning on the ground. This is true for Montana too. Where the Clintons have a head start on Obama, especially in SD, is that they constantly have three to campaign - Bill's everywhere, so's Chelsea.
I suspect it's going to be very close in SD, and that Clinton might pull out a win there.
June 1, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yet I keep running across good solid dems who will vote for Obama but view his losses to her in primaries as a signal that he will be weak vs McCain .
Every day after June 3 spent pushing his weakness - and I firmly believe she will continue eve a few days after he hits majority on the rationale that some mayu swing back - constitutes one more knife wound in his back.
It is profoundly tasteless and will (I believe, consciously) allow her to "accept" some position as payoff in exchange for campaigning that he is the best candidate - all the while serving her alternative purpose to create and re-enforce the 'validity' of Republican arguments that her earlier stated claims up thru, say Fridau June 13 - were more accurate than her 'heartfelt' later claims.
Its troubling to have to keep countering the "I don't think he can do it" worries with the GOTV registration, etc etc. and I hold Hillary fully responsible.
June 1, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember the opposite of love is not hate but indifference. Patience, this battle will be over soon. We'll take those who will come with us to the fight against McCain. The rest will join us as we prove ourselves, at the latest by election day.
June 1, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thoughtful and thought provoking analysis. Thanks so much.
June 1, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time to follow Obama's lead.
Hillary Clinton has run a great campaign, and is a wonderful American.
Meanwhile, in the plane of reality we all inhabit, more on Obama v. McCain . . .
Put another way, no point in killing what's already dead. Let it go.
June 1, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
In a couple of days, following the final MT and SD primaries, Hillary will have difficulties finding a stage to press her case for the nomination. She'll have no more campaign stops, no traveling press corp filming her daily. If the super delegates come out for Obama this week and put him over the new 2118 (?) number, all the focus will go to Obama. He's run a brilliant campaign.
June 1, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well analyzed and well written. I look forward to more! Thanks.
June 1, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
His campaign team's focus has been awesome, especially in contrast with the Clinton circus.
A crafty, hard-nosed political animal who at the same time comes across as both authentic and idealistic -- Obama is like Bill Clinton 2.0.
Which probably explains why Bill hates him so.
I can't wait to see him operate on the world stage.
Fasten your seat belts, folks. This should be fun.
June 1, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I've considered this a great deal, and I don't think Bill hates him. I think that much like an aging superstar with, perhaps flagging, um, "potency" he sees the up-and-comer as both a continuation of and challege to his legacy. Were he not married to the competition I think Bill would be taking credit for the possibility of an Obama candicacy. Bill owed HRC big time and I think SOME of his nastiness has just been settling that debt. Now, don't get me started on the pathology of his "mistakes" on the trail and what I think that says about the dynamics of their relationship. :D Whole textbooks could be written on this stuff.
June 2, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard he gave a good speech,
I heard he had some style.
But when he started winning,
I started spewing bile.
This was my year to shine, but,
he's winning by a mile!
Strumming my pain when he moves on,
Blithely forgiving my lies....
June 1, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good old CNN.
June 1, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me play a devils advocate. I'm an Obama supporter, but this almost unquestionable applaud is rather naive.
He is one of the best strategist and campaigner- no doubt. He played his cards right almost always-but not always.
He could've a closed it around TX/OH. A clear cut popular vote win in TX would have ended before all the Wright outrage. He was flustered by Hillary's Kitchen Sink strategy. In my view he looked baffled, and couldn't adjust quickly to her C-in-C attacks and 3 A.M ads;
Also, not competing in KY was a dickhead move. She won by 250,000 votes- that's just not acceptable. It was a wrong move.
Also, he needs to stop this Popular vote B.S. It's already getting out of hand. She's obviously trying to erode some of the legitimacy.
Kudos to Obama camp for winning from nowhere. But, lets not get carried away.
June 1, 2008 11:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama held back against Clinton because he was taking the high road. He was forced to bite his tongue.
In other words, he fought off her kitchen sink strategy with one hand tied behind his back.
June 2, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I beg to differ about Texas, because I lvie here. Considering its 12% black, 30% Hispanic and Bush's home, Obama came remarkably close in the popular vote. But through incredible organization, he won the caucus and more delegates. His only mistake was letting the media keep claiming she won here. I was at a caucus in Dallas with 1200 people. I think that many more left because the line was so long.
I defend him not campaigning in Wva and KY, because he was going to lose huge anyway. It prevented her from claiming he tried hard and still lost. Now, he can go back and campaign hard against McSame, if he chooses, without having to play nice as he would have had to against Hillary. Instead of being the Black guy with the same policy as the white woman, he can be the guy who's on your side v Bush III.
What will be very interesting from here forward is to see what he does with his army of willing volunteers. I've been in the middle of politics since I caucused for McGovern. I've been to 3 national conventions and traveled with Jesse Jackson in '88. I have never seen anything like the mass of people willing to work for this guy. And I'm in Texas. Bush Country. I watched the Obama campaign capture the cell phone number of thousands at every rally, then later text message them to go caucus.
It could all blow up tommorrow. But for right now, he's got more money, people, support and skills than McSame. With Hillary almost gone, this is about to get very interesting.
June 2, 2008 3:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Word! I was also at the Texas caucuses, both on primary day and again at the senatorial district conventions. Obama kicked butt here--especially for, you know, TEXAS.
June 2, 2008 7:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right kash79 there's nothing to get carried away about, we're just getting started. But TX and OH? Sorry we came from nowhere and overran the inevitable candidate. Everybody knows she still had a mathmatical chance on in IN and NC. As it was we won TX on delegates which is what counts. This movement, not just for Obama but for our House and Senate candidates must get bigger.
June 2, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Love the song title analogy!
I appreciate that Obama seems to be a well-centered individual, who possesses the focus and ego-strength to resist getting caught up in other people's dramas or waste time engaging in belly-bumping contests where having the last word is a psychological necessity. Apparently his campaign calls him "no-drama Obama" and then there is his amazingly low 90/60 blood pressure.
To be sure, his campaign hasn't been flawless, but he does seem to have a sense of picking his battles carefully. These qualities will stand him in good stead in times to come.
June 2, 2008 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would sure be cool if a bunch of supers endorsed him in Saint Paul Tuesday night. Thirty or forty standing on the stage with him would be pretty nifty. Not quite as nifty as if they did it Monday or Tuesday during the day, but nifty. I Hope they have the good sense to recognize the news value of the DNC officially calling him the presumptive nominee in John McCain's venue. Obama certainly understands the value of a good party in a great place at the right moment! LOL
June 2, 2008 1:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I have been watching Senator Obama a lot recently, and I think he has an unconscious twitch when it comes to Hillary Clinton. Whenever he mentions her name, he unconsciously put his middle finger to his face. I HONESTLY don't believe it's malicious, but it happens frequently, LMAO!
June 2, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's campaign strategy and conduct has been exemplary. Ignoring the pithy actions of Clinton's campaign is the best and strongest course of action. (Plus it's really irritating them!)
According to latest comments from his campaign, I too believe it would better serve all if enough Supers came forward before end of vote count tomorrow to enable the 'voters' to push him over the top.
June 2, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Killing her softly," is not the way to go. Hillary Rodham Clinton needs to be destroyed if we have any interested in the good of the country.
To put it bluntly, I have no problem with the Hillary Psychos voting for John McCain. They are not Democrats. The last thing the Democratic Party needs is a bunch of psycho old racist women. Hillary has never supported average Americans. She and Bill have spent their entire political lives supporting big business. It's called the DLC.
And consider that Billary appointed Greyer and
Ginsburg to SCOTUS. Both are right wing apologists and have done nothing to challenge the racist SCOTUS majority.
If we need to talk about assissination, HRC should be the target. The Billary crowd murdered RFK... Are we going to allow Billary to murder Obama? The Clintons have single handedly destroyed this country. After witnessing the psychos on Satudrday, I understand that average Americans are are the underdog compared to Hillary and McCain pyschos.
June 2, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am still trying to discover the disconnect between Hillary and Obama supporters.
I would love to hear more perspective from Hillary supporters.
If you're interested, please share your opinions.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/an-honest-question-for-clinton.php
June 2, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
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