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OBAMA WIns 7 of 8 POPULAR VOTE Metrics.

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Thank you FiveThirtyEight.con for doing the final math for all of us - and bursting Hillary Clinton's final remaining 'talking point' about who the real winner was this past campaign season. As you can see, Hillary wins the PV metric ONLY IF WE GIVE HER ALL MICHGAN VOTES and ZERO for Obama.

That leaves eight potential ways that we can handle Michigan.

1. Ignore Michigan entirely. That gives Obama a win by 155,782 votes.
2. Count Michigan at 100 percent and give no votes to Obama. That givesClinton a win by 172,527 votes.
3. Count Michigan and give all uncommitted votes to Obama. Obama +65,641.
4. Count Michigan and give all uncommitted and write-in votes to Obama. (Note that we have included a new option to treat Michigan's 27,694 discarded write-in votes as uncommitted). Obama +93,335.
5. Count Michigan and allocate uncommitted votes based on the preferences of uncommitted voters in exit polls. We have that total at Obama +6,961, however it is so close that it can essentially be considered a tie.
6. Count Michigan and allocate uncommitted and write-in votes based on exit polls. That gives Obama a "safe" win by 28,008 votes.
7. Count Michigan and allocate all officially-recorded votes based on exit polls. This may be a truer reflection of voter preference because roughly 20 percent of Hillary Clinton's voters indicated in exit polls that they'd prefer to have voted for another candidate. Under this scenario, Obama wins by 90,398.
8. Same as above, but also include write-in votes in the total that we divide among the candidates. This is actually my preferred solution, because write-in voters were almost certainly included in exit polls even if they weren't included in Michigan's official tally. Counterintuitively, Obama's margin goes down slightly if we take this approach (because we are giving the majority share of a slightly larger pie to Clinton). But we still have Obama winning the national popular vote count by 87,351.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/final-popular-vote-estimates-obama-wins.html


Comments (7)

Guess which one Hillary chooses to believes?

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Jjonze:

The only one where she is the only choice on the ballot, of course. :)

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Looking at the "metrics", it seems that when all the votes are counted as they were cast, she wins. Why do we need another "metric"? "Metric" analysis...

1) If we don't count her MI votes, Obama wins.

2) She wins.

3) Give Obama votes he didn't get.

4) Give Obama votes he didn't get in #3 above and also give him an assumed number of write-in votes that he said he didn't want prior to the primary. Giving him the write-in votes would violate state law.

We don't need to go on. His "winning metrics" involve either disallowing votes cast for his opponent or giving him votes he didn't get.

It's reality time for Obama supporters. He won half of the votes cast. She won half of the votes cast.

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Actually, no.

He won 52% of the votes cast. She won 48%.

But using the new HillBilly math, I can see where she would not quite follow the rules the rest of us follow when dealing with base-10 algebra.

:)

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You could have included a link with your claim but you didn't. So I call bullshit.

Aren't the innernets wunnerful?

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I don't know what all of the fuss is about. Hillary doesn't need a popular vote argument! ...she's got the electoral math on her side; she's already won the presidency.

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...and ZERO for Obama...

That's the number of votes he got in MI, Peter. Do you want to give him some votes he didn't get?

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