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Obama Blows McSame Away in Battle for Latino Voters
Yesterday, I blogged about the new Rasmussen poll that showed Obama doesn't have a 'unity' problem within our party.
Simply, put, if Obama is at 80% before HRC's concession/endorsement speech, than he's doing just fine when it comes to unity. We're doing just fine with unity.
I'm not taking it for granted either; I'm just pointing out the facts to people who are worried about things that don't actually exists (at least not in the land of facts & figures which seem so diametrically opposed to our media's self-induced dramas).
Like, for instance, Obama's "Latino problem", which is also non-existence. He blows McSame away with the Latino voters. From the LA Times:
A new Gallup Poll summary of surveys taken in May shows Obama winning 62% of Latino registered voters nationwide, compared with just 29% for McCain. Others have found a wide gap as well. The pro-Democratic group Democracy Corps compiled surveys from March through May that showed Obama with a 19-point lead among Latinos. And a Times poll published last month showed Obama leading McCain among California Latinos by 14 points.Problems once promoted by the media (& HRC) as "huge" issues for Obama, aren't as problematic as they had us all believe.
Republicans say McCain's numbers among Latinos at the moment are disappointing -- far below the goals set by a campaign that has long believed McCain could challenge the traditional Democratic dominance of the Latino electorate.
The numbers suggest that McCain's image has suffered after a competitive GOP primary in which he renounced some of the moderate views on immigration popular among many Latinos. For example, McCain, who was a chief sponsor of legislation creating a path to citizenship for most of the nation's estimated 12 million illegal immigrants, now says he believes the government must focus first on securing the U.S.-Mexico border before dealing with illegal workers.
Now that voters a have clear choice from both parties, cooler heads are prevailing and voters are looking our for their best interests and not holding any "perceived" grudges.
And again, this is from before HRC's concession/endorsement speech (which I'd like to say for the record was very impressive).
I suspect we'll be seeing more of the same when it comes to polls of white "working class" voters, women voters and whatever other voters we were force-fed to believe Obama has a problem with.
If I remember corrected, Obama is just 8% behind McSame in West Virginia. EIGHT points?! Oh yes, here it is:
John McCain begins the general election season with an eight-point advantage over Barack Obama in West Virginia. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of this general election match-up shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Obama earns 37%.Does Obama have work here? Yes. But an 8 point difference? He lost by 41 points to HRC.
Neither man is terribly popular in the state. McCain earns favorable reviews from 48% and unfavorable ratings from another 48%. The numbers for Obama are 40% favorable and 57% unfavorable. Those figures include 26% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain and 35% with such a negative view of Obama.
The overall point is that Primary & General Election polling, voters blocks, etc., can not be compared. Apples & Oranges.
crossposted at thejoshuablog







Comments (15)
Everyone will be coming home.
June 8, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just found this interesting breakdown from June 3rd:
Sounds like landslide numbers to me in the climate.June 8, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and if you can, please digg this one:
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Obama_Blows_McSame_Away_in_Battle_for_Latino_Voters
June 8, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of this general election match-up shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Obama earns 37%."
The problem with these West Virginia numbers is the undeclared 18%. Those kind of numbers wouldn't normally break for Obama.
Have to see the internals on this survery. What were they?
June 8, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
The interesting act here is that McSame doesn't have most of those undecideds right off the bat, considering Obama's big loss to HRC here.
Here's a link to the poll for the internals.
June 8, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. That 85% chance for the Republicans in WV looks right for me. Your Latino info looks very promising. There's a discussion of sorts on Obama and demographics over at "Hilly Clinton. Inner Thoughts" that seems related to your post. you might want to come over there and give a link to your post.
June 8, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would note that there is a good bit of self-induced drama related to this subject right here on TPM as well.
June 8, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who took their cues from the media & Taylor Marsh, no doubt! LOL.
;-)
June 8, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Si Se Puede!
June 8, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two quick points:
1) You're absolutely right about the unity issue. 80% support by self-identifying Democrats for the presidential candidate at this stage is quite strong. Before this year, it was rare for Democratic candidates to get more than 86% support from African American voters, according to exit polls after general elections.
2) Rasmussen's "favorable/unfavorable" questions are asked in a way that skews the results sharply toward the "unfavorables." This is what some pollsters call a "house effect" that is unique to a particular polling company. But even if any reasonable assessment would shows Obama's unfavorables in WV to be under 50%, he's still going to have a steep uphill climb vs. McCain. The only event likely to change Obama's negatives, I think, is if McCain makes one or two quasi-senile gaffes in debates or joint appearances with Obama, and the general electorate realizes what a loose cannon McCain actually is.
June 9, 2008 3:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
i am curious....mccain has been hit by the decrease in latino support for back tracking on illegal amnesty. what do you think mainstream america will do when obama says he supports it?
if i recall the majority of americans do not support amnesty and they have placed their concern regarding amnesty over the iraq war.
in my opinion when obma has to back track in te same manner that mccain had to i suspect the hispanic vote will shake out differntly.
June 9, 2008 3:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, that's not true. Illegal immigration is near the bottom of the list.
June 9, 2008 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
you're not 'curious' as you've already made up you little mind.
NO ONE has ever talked about AMNESTY. Get a fucking grip you right-wing tool.
June 9, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
A little contrast: Gore carried 65% of Latino voters in 2000 and Kerry got 55% in 2004.
Obama's 62% is a good start, but he needs to do better to keep this from being a possible decisive factor in the election.
June 9, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you have a link for those 2000 & 2004 numbers?
Thanks,
June 9, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
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