After the 2004 elections, astrophysicists J. Richard Gott and Wes Colley found that the results matched almost exactly a new poll-based indicator they were looking at.  In their method, each state was assigned to either Kerry or Bush according to the number of polls each was leading in, irrespective of the size of the lead shown by any of the polls.  The only state that differed from their predictor was Hawaii.

Wes Colley now has a web page showing a tracking meta-poll of the Obama-McCain race.  You can find it here.

As of today (2008-06-25 Wed), it shows Obama ahead 355 electoral votes to 183 for McCain. States that are shown as flips from their 2004 results are CO, FL, IN, IA, MO, NM, OH, and VA for Obama, and none for McCain.

Of course, the general election is far too distant for this or any poll to be a useful predictor of what will happen in November.  So much can happen between now and then.  It can, however, serve either campaign as a guide to where to spend resources.  By clicking on one of the dates (e.g., 6/25), you can see for each state how many polls favor one candidate or the other.

Their method is described in a 6/6 NYT op-ed piece, and Dr. Gott can be heard discussing it in a Scientific American podcast.

Enjoy!  --jzap