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McCain's Transparent "10 Town Hall" Challenge
From the moment the McCain campaign issued its "10 Town Hall" invitation/challenge, it has seemed to me that their real desire is signified at least as much in the "10" as in the "Town Halls." From the beginning, they had to have known that their request was excessive, and that the Obama campaign would never agree. Moreover, no matter how much the "Town Hall" format might benefit McCain, they also have to know that this is a relative benefit; in other words, it's better than a debate, but Obama still seems more likely to gain the immediate benefit from a joint appearance than does McCain.
So why ask for "10 Town Halls" when you know that, even if your opposition were so magnanimous as to grant all your wishes, so many joint appearances are, at best, a gamble for your candidate? Is this a form of campaign suicide? A version of the "Bush strategy," whereby you acknowledge your opponent's intellectual and rhetorical superiority, then lower expectations to such a pitiful threshold that simply remaining upright and speaking makes you seem like a winner? Or is the McCain camp actually crazy enough to believe that Obama would suffer from the contrasts raised in the course of multiple debates/town halls?
I think the "10 Town Hall" challenge is about something else altogether. The McCain camp wants as many joint appearances as they can get, not because they think the appearances themselves will actually benefit their candidate. They know that the best they could hope for is a close second (which is why they would prefer the town hall format). The idea here is to try to gain control over Obama's summer travel schedule. They tried the "joint Iraq trip" gambit. Obama didn't take the bait, and it didn't work as a talking point / campaign issue because it was so transparent. They're hoping the "10 Town Hall" challenge will work better because it's easier to frame as a call for "a different kind of campaigning," easier to spin as equally or more advantageous to Obama, and much easier to get the press to move for them (after all, it's not like the networks were clamoring to cover that "joint Iraq trip").
Everyone expects Obama to have an advantage over McCain in a joint appearance. But think about a typical of campaigning for Obama, versus a typical day of campaigning for McCain. Which do you suspect would be more lopsided, in terms of hour-for-hour impact: a typical campaign day, or a day with a joint appearance? I'm not just talking about the days with mega-rallies, or the days with major policy speeches. On a day with a joint appearance (whether debate or town hall), coverage of the event would dominate. It wouldn't really matter who did well or who flopped: the event itself would be the news. McCain could fall on his face and still essentially come out even with Obama for the cycle, because the joint appearance would capture the coverage.
On a typical campaign day, however, coverage of the two candidates does not break down quite so evenly. It is more likely that one or the other will "win" a news cycle on a day (week, month, etc.) where no joint appearances are scheduled. It's not just about who can afford more advertising, or who is ahead in the polls. One candidate will get more or "better" coverage, and one will say something stupid or give a terrible speech or have to answer for an associate's associate or, perhaps worst of all, simply get overlooked. Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Obama has been winning most of the news cycles. Even when competing with Hillary, he made far more effective use of a campaign day than did McCain (after all, we was able to fend off two challengers while McCain gained no ground running unopposed).
Beyond the daily news cycle, each day on the campaign trail translates into votes, money, organization, and other essentials that the candidates will need to see them through to election day. Joint appearances take a candidate away from the trail not just for the time the debate or town hall takes, but for preparation, travel, scheduling arrangements, etc. Just as he has won most news cycles, Obama has "won the day" against McCain on the trail: he covers more ground both in terms of literal geography and in taking his argument to his selected audiences. On a typical campaign day, he defines the terms of the national debate more advantageously without having to share the stage with McCain. Obama is not simply a better speaker or a better debater than John McCain; he is, unquestionably, the better campaigner. This is what the "10 Town Hall" challenge really hopes to address.
I've seen many references to the "losing candidate's strategy" of "debate-as-free-advertising." I do think the Town Hall challenge works analogously on some level, but I really don't think that the McCain camp wants these joint appearances primarily for the appearance's sake. I'm sure they would be just as happy if no one actually saw the town halls themselves. But they do need a way to compete with Obama's dominant campaign. They don't have the resources, the organization, or the planning to keep up. Obama needn't worry about the costs of personalized campaigning in far-flung locations, whereas McCain has to pick and chose where he will make his stops. Without overstating it, the "age factor" does probably come into play here, as well: I'm sure that McCain doesn't relish the thought of trying to keep up with his admittedly "much younger" opponent's schedule over the next five months. Perhaps most importantly, however, is Obama's 50 state strategy. As he proved in the primary, Obama is a hands-on campaigner with remarkable abilities to mobilize and motivate on the ground. He has put states into play that haven't been in the "swing" column for generations.
Obviously, I don't want to understate McCain's strength as a "town hall" campaigner. This is his format, and it does make sense that he would want to try to minimize his rhetoric gap against Obama by debating him in this manner. Regardless of the format, however, McCain can't really expect to accrue much benefit from any joint appearances, as speaking opportunities. The real advantage lies in the opportunity to influence Obama's campaign schedule with the preparation, travel, and scheduling demands that multiple debates/town halls will create. The McCain camp has proposed - and will likely continue to fight for - multiple joint appearances in a desperate attempt to divert Obama from personally campaigning in places like Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, and who knows how many more soon-to-be-blue states? The "10 Town Hall" challenge hopes to play Obama's rhetorical superiority against his organizational ability. It's not about engaging issues, and it's really not about "winning" at any particular debate. By calling for multiple joint appearances, McCain hopes to shift national attention to the debates themselves, and perhaps more importantly, to take Obama off the trail as often as possible.














Comments (13)
Makes sense. I'm glad the whole thing seems to have fallen through.
Check out a terrific post at Daily Kos by someone who attended the Mccain Townhall at New Jersey and describes it very well.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/14/0952/31661/488/535481
June 14, 2008 4:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I don't want to understate McCain's strength as a "town hall" campaigner. "
In my opinion, McCain has no strength whatsoever as a town hall campaigner, unless every second of the event is scripted to make him look good. He is not rational, intelligent, articulate, or charismatic, or even good-hearted. Any real town hall event, with an opponent, will display McCain's stupidity and nastiness.
June 14, 2008 7:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. But I don't want to understate it. :-)
Seriously, though, I do think there's some danger in setting the expectations for McCain's performance so low that all he has to do is show up for him to have had a "good" debate. Bush got by on those standards in 2000 and '04 both, and I don't want to see another round of excuse making by talking heads attempting "balance" by pointing out again and again that we should just expect Obama to be a better speaker, thinker, debater, etc. So if McCain wants to run with the idea that he's "better" in a town hall setting, I say let's give him that. Don't manage expectations on his behalf. How does that help Obama?
June 14, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
"The idea here is to try to gain control over Obama's summer travel schedule. They tried the "joint Iraq trip" gambit. "
Good point. Not only would it eat up 10 days where Obama could be out campaigning, but also twice that much in preparation and travel.
I think you are right that they are trying to distract and control Obama with these endless "invitations".
Good news for Obama, after 20+ Democratic debates, everyone is pretty tired of them at this point.
3-5 or so would be enough between these two. I think we get the point. So don't expect McCain's gimmicks to win at the polls.
June 14, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank God! The Obama campaign has refused to legitimate the McCain candidancy. McCain has always been incompetent. He is old. He thinks old. For 26 years, his only claim to fame is his POW status. Please, give me a break. The man has never had an original thought in his life.
He has demonstrated his less-then-average intelligence -- how else can one explain his confusion of Sunnis vs Shiites?
Like every Republican, he distains the constituion -- just consider his reactionary comments to SCOTUS's ruling that the Administration and the Congress cannot deny fundamental constitutional rights of every human being.
June 14, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why should Senator Obama let Senator McCain plan his campaign appearances. I am glad he did not fall into McCain's trap.
Tell John McCain to tend to his own knitting, provided he can still shear enough woolly mammoths to provide the yarn.
June 14, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I never heard of Democrats rejoicing over fewer debates. That used to be Republican territory, when they were trying to hide the intellectual weaknesses of Reagan or Bush. Or they were trying to hide the truth about their policies, because they were so contrary to the wishes and interests of the American people.
We don't have to hide our policies. Obama is a fine debater. I don't see what the problem with 10 townhall meetings is. Since when do we, as Democrats, salute a more stage-managed campaign rather than a more issue oriented campaign?
June 14, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Debates are fine, but not setups. This is all about the Republicans setting little traps for Obama and trying to entice him in. So far, he's outwitted them.
On the other hand, when Obama dictates the times, terms and conditions, he won't be ambushed like he was in Philly or as he would have been with McCain's first bogus town-hall meeting full of his supporters - a very Bush move and further proof that he's as afraid of reality as Bush is.
June 14, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Debates are established by negotiation. Why should one side dictate the terms? Philadelphia had all the faults of all debates where media hacks ask the questions. I'm sure if the will were there, the two camps could negotiate a mutually agreeable format that excludes the baleful influence of personality based journalists. Why are moderaters needed at all, except to keep the time?
McCain's townhall was what it was because the Obama team did not participate in setting the rules. The audience would not have been the same if they had.
June 14, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I imagine you're correct that it would have been negotiated differently, but it's disingenuous to tout a real town hall meeting with "democrats, republicans and independents" and then stack the deck. I totally agree about the role of the moderators - which is to moderate. But in debates, someone has to decide on the questions, and that someone should not be biased, and the same questions should be asked of both candidates.
Anyway, not to argue. I just think McCain's charade of a town hall is probably indicative of his level of integrity and what we can expect from his camp, and Obama will need to take control of these situations, at least to some extent, to avoid more of the same.
June 14, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very good analysis. I hadn't thought of the clandestine goal of taking Obama off the campaign trail. How clever. I also think he will be ambushed by planted supporters who will ask ABC-style questions. At first I thought the town halls would be a good idea. Now I'm sure they would be terrible. Obama needs to stay on the campaign trail and hit Texas hard.
June 14, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also thought it would be a great idea when I first heard the proposal. But then I started thinking about it more, especially as someone who lives in NC and has seen the time and attention Obama has put into campaigning here. That has got to be freaking the McCain people out. And I've noticed that it's always when Obama is making connections and covering a lot of ground in "their" territory that they come out with some "Hey, why don't you join us in a trip to Kalamazoo" proposal. So it just seems a bit disingenuous, from my perspective, for the McCain camp to frame their "invitation" as primarily being an offer to talk about "issues." Obama is talking about issues - every day, in lots of different places, to lots of different voters. And yes, I want to see debates! I want to see real, substantive debates, in various formats. But not at the cost of Obama's grassroots campaigning, because I personally believe that's where he will win the election. Call it my Carolina Bias, I guess.
June 16, 2008 3:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rule of thumb:
If your opponent sets the rules and the number off joint appearances, and the times and places where they will be held, you can be certain that your opponent is not doing so because he thinks that it will help you.
Senator Obama gets to control his own campaign, and not his opponent. I realize that John McCain does not like that fact, and isn't that just too bad. Poor baby!
June 15, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
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