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Maybe It Really Was All About The Oil After All: The New Iraq

Even as all the shifting rationales the Bush administration has offered for the Iraq debacle have been debunked, I have still been skeptical of the claim that it was really all about oil.  This story makes me think twice.   

To summarize: After losing their oil concession to nationalization 36 years ago, four Western oil companies – Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP – are set to receive no bid contracts to develop Iraq’s oil fields.  The companies prevailed over other offers by more than 40 companies, including companies from Russia, China and India.  They were awarded by the “sovereign” government of Iraq’s oil ministry, which is still being advised by Americans.  The oil ministry said the contracts were awarded to the companies because they had been assisting the ministry without charge for two years.  However, a total of 46 companies had memorandums of understanding with the ministry yet were not awarded contracts.  In one instance, the Russian company Lukoil had been providing free training to Iraqi engineers, but the contract was awarded to a consortium of Chevron and Total.  Although the contracts are relatively brief, they give the companies a huge leg up when development rights are handed out later.    

Is this the vision of Iraq as a showpiece for democracy that would transform the Middle East?  The Iraq envisioned by Bush and McCain looks more like a dystopian nightmare.  A country segregated into semi-feudal ethnic cantons each with its own militia, riven by low level sectarian violence the lid of which is precariously kept on by American troops hunkered down in gigantic mega-bases being fed by Burger King and supplied by Halliburton, while American companies extract the oil that feeds our economy and destroys our environment operating under the protection of contractors hired by Blackwater and the like who are unaccountable to both the military and the Iraqi government.

A shining light indeed.         

Comments (37)

But surely you knew all along that a deal like this would take place, regardless of the prime motivation behind the invasion.

As with most policies, I've always assumed that there were a number of motivators, especially since there were a number of people behind the plan with their own agendas. I'm sure that many invasion supporters had oil in mind and many more saw it as a bonus. As for GW himself, who knows? Based on what little I know of his personality and objectives, I suspect that he was more focused on personal animosity towards Saddam and on creating a bad-ass image for the U.S. under a rationalized cover of spreading democracy, but that's speculation.

In any case, Americans oil companies have of course found the means to exploit the situation to their advantage. Shocker.

12 hours later and your collar is still flashing. Is your avatar contributing to global warming?

It was never all about any one thing. It was about all of them.

I might agree with this. Like Genghis said, it's all speculation; however, I think therefore that speculation that there was a single motivation is as equally valid as speculation that there were multiple motives. I think, again, the key term here is "petrodollars." Oil is running out, and as the oil goes, so goes the money and power. Who stands to lose? Financial titans, the MIC, the House of Saud, etc. Wouldn't it be great if we could all come together, and have a big party...

And so the many is one.

I did suspect this all along. I still think I might throw up.

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BARACK IS QUIENTLY TELLING THE IRAQIS'S THAT HE HAS NO INTENTION ON GETTING US OUT IN 16 MONTHS.

this is wayY to unbelievable. not only has OBAMA lied to the country when he said one thing to us and another to canada regarding NAFTA, he is now discretely telling the IRAQ foreign ministry he has no plans to remove US troops in 16 months and that this is just camapaign rhethoric. Now, add the fact that he has also just announced he lied to the american public regarding taking public financing over private and you can better believe what i have been saying all along is that OBAMA is a snake oil salesman and you folks have been taken.

http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-US&brand=&vid=fe86c872-82f5-4525-afc7-e85d3ca13bd5

OMG!!! I finally understand. I feel so snookered. Thank you michelle for having the courage and tenacity to post your profundity everywhere, no matter what the topic. You are the savior of TPM and all that it doesn't represent.

You were surprised by this Armchair? One would have loved to been a fly on the wall with the Big Boys visiting GWB in Austin in 1998 talking to him about the "repayment" of the debts he hand garnered over the years with them.

I believe there were multiple mixed and sometimes conflicting motives for the war. There was the desire to show the Arab world we were ready to kick ass after 9-11. There was the score to settle with Saddam. There was the mistaken and supremely inflated fear of weapons of mass destruction. There was the neocon dream of fighting fundamentalism by spreading democracy. There was the desire to get rid of a brutal dictator sitting on top of an enormous trove of oil. And I'm sure there are more I've left off the list. However, when people told me it's all about oil, I generally thought that to be at the bottom of the list, more a byproduct than a motive. I can't say this shocked me, but it is just so shamelessly transparent.

All about the oil... I think most of us thought so, but it hadn't been said "aloud" nor had the oil companies made their move. So I think among the "known knowns," and the "known unknowns" we knew it, we just didn't want to believe it.

But just a couple of other points on the "motives" for war:

"ready to kick ass" -- wouldn't capturing Osama Bin Laden in AFGHANISTAN done the trick?

"the score to settle with Saddam" -- what score? I thought that was done after Gulf War I? Seriously, what did Saddam do to us that warranted going to war with him?

"weapons of mass destruction" -- if that was the fear, why not go after North Korea or China or any of the other holders of WMD?

"spreading democracy" -- by what? fomenting civil war? Or why not help fledgling democracies, say in sub-Saharan Africa who don't need war, but guidance, support and reinforcement. Why not help Liberia (who asked for our help) instead of screwing around in a country that didn't need our "help" democratizing.

"brutal dictator removal" -- so again, why not North Korea, or Zimbabwe or Venezuela or Cuba or anywhere else? Who are we to tell other countries who is has passed the "commander-in-chief" threshhold to our satisfaction in their country.

The question I want McCain to answer -- or at least be asked -- is what the hell are we winning? Define "victory". Why do we have to stay until WE WIN? Win what?

But this news about the oil companies was "ironic" to say the least.

I'm not saying these were good reasons, just that they were reasons. But your arguments bring home the point that underscoring all of these reasons, it would have never happened but for the oil. Again, no surprise, but the audacity of this is really over the top.

Perfectly stated

But there wasn't any coherent list. Different people had completely different priorities. For some, oil was #1. For others, it wasn't much of a consideration.

And as others pointed out, one needs to be careful about not confusing cause and effect. For the sake of the argument, let's say the invasion had nothing to do with oil whatsoever. Would the no-bid contracts be so surprising? I don't think so. The oil companies are trying to exploit the situation. How that situation got created in the first place isn't even all that important.

Yes we were killing many birds with a few bunker-buster stones. We can’t forget Cheney’s secret meetings with the oil cos. and maps of Iraq. And Bush went from a fumbling goofus to our codpiece commander after 9/11 and so, a continuing war was desirable. Likewise throwing our weight around, American hegemony and centrally located bases were important. But we also can’t forget how closely aligned with Israel the neocons were. Our continuous saber rattling and threats to Iran may yet come to blows and that is not going to ever benefit our oil companies. But it benefits our Israeli partners and everything else in the ME is seen through that prism. Judging by our actions there and elsewhere in the ME, the least plausible reason for invading and occupying Iraq was democracy building.

How many times did they change their rationales?

At least a dozen. It was always the oil. Bush and Cheney are Oil Men, (I use "Men" loosely).

Follow the money.

They really are jerks of the highest order.

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The invasion of Iraq opens up several different capitalistic markets. With the world economy stagnating, Starbucks, McDonalds, Nikes, IBM, BLAH BLAH BLAH have already oversaturated most of the Civilized North American, South American, and European Regions.

In order for those companies to grow (the main measure of capitalization on the stock market) they'll need add new consumer bases. So, YES, this was about oil but it is about a giant need for overall consumerism. Soon the open air markets that John McCain visited in the Green Zone of Iraq will be replaced with a Walmart, a Footlocker, and an Applebees.

Riiiiight.

Dunkin' Donuts would do so well in Iraq.

(rolleyes)

White, western arrogance.

They think our coffee is weak and sucks, big time. Yeah, even starbucks.

It's about the fargin' oil.

It was always about the oil.

Why not invade Libya? Burma? Sudan? The list of failed states and despotic regimes is not short.

Only fools reserved doubt that this was about oil.

I cannot put this anymore clearly: If there were not oil beneath Iraq, we would not be there.

Look at the scant few documents that were released from Cheney's ETF meetings. They are maps of the oil fields in Iraq.

Read Zbigniew Brzezenski's The Grand Chessboard. It reads like a history at this point despite the fact that it was written over a decade ago.

Are you calling me, Armchair Guerilla, a fool?

Plainly, if there were no oil, we would not have been particularly interested in Iraq or Saddam Hussein. Oil is thus inseparable from the invasion. It is quite a different thing to say, as many did before the war began, that the reason for the invasion was to seize the oil, that the war was by and for the oil men in the White House, Bush and Cheney. This is the view I have always seen as naive and reductive. There were many justifications for the war, most frivolous, a few colorable, and even some I actually thought the administration believed in, however misguided their belief. My point (if there really was one, other than to point out the shamelessly opportunistic, or worse, grab) was that this move does add fuel (pun intended) to the theory that oil was behind the invasion, not just the backdrop that brought it onto the radar in the first place.

That, and to point out the hideous facts on the ground the Bush administration is creating that are going to make it all the more difficult for the Obama administration to leave. See this piece in Salon about the building of permanent mega bases in the midst of chaos, misery and death.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/06/17/iraq_bases_permanent/

Dude! You go.

It was about the oil. If it smells like a gas pump, walks like a gas pump and talks like a gas pump, it's all about the gas pump.

Sometimes, the most obvious answer is the correct one.

I still love the smell of the gas pump. Reminds me of my childhood.

"Dude! You go."
Is that a positive comment?

"I still love the smell of the gas pump."

It smells like...victory.

Yes.

Read 'Red Storm Rising' by Tom Clancy. Its a Cold War era novel but its premise definitely applies here. Russia starts WW3 and plunges itself into bankruptcy fomenting a revolution for OIL. Life imitating art, AGAIN.

I merely object to your use of the word "art."

It's safe to say that wherever you draw the line between popular entertainment and art, Tom Clancy falls on the side of the former, but closer than, say, Leroy Neiman.

But there's no good snappy phrase for prescient pop culture, is there? Truth imitating fiction, maybe?

Opiates imitating the masses?

Not sure what that means, exactly, but I'm picturing a rave inside a huge, gothic cathedral.

McCain essentially said it himself. Back in the first week of May in Denver he made the following statement

My friends, I will have an energy policy that we will be talking
about, which will eliminate our dependence on oil from the Middle East that will prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women
into conflict again in the Middle East,

Pretty much sums it up.

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There were a lot of reasons for which those who supported the invasion supported it, many of which are listed above. The movers of the invasion supported those reasons for convenience and to rally support.

But for the guys pushing the buttons--Bush, Cheney and the other NeoCons, it was always about the oil as a means of getting more power and about strategic military positioning as a means of holding on to that power for several generations to come. (Assuming that nobody would invent a truly great alternative fuel, or figure out cold fusion or something...)

Sorry, ladies and gentlemen, Genghis is correct: there are a number of complex issues going on here. Oil being one. But a number of people pushing for an Iraq invasion had nothing to do with oil. The Neocons were pretty blatant in what they wanted to do, and why. Or as someone (perhaps Krugman) said: if you want to know what someone's thinking, look at what they are saying when no one is watching.

There was plenty of time in the 1990s to watch the Neocons.

The Project for the New American Century lays out in the Clinton years what the Neocons wanted and why:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pnac#PNAC_role_in_promoting_invasion_of_Iraq

The Neocons were *not* about oil. They were about the Pax Americana and empire building. There was a lot of ideology here.

And it didn't end with secular ideology: the religious right had a particularly strong influence on born-again GWB. Kevin Phillips' book AMERICAN THEOCRACY details how part of the support for the war is from people who want to have yet another crusade against the Muslims -- or are anticipating rapture -- or millenial change -- or any other superstition you might dream up.

If the war was all about oil, we would have had that sewn up by now... after all, we had better control of Iraq a couple of years ago than now.

We had the perfect storm in GWB:

a) close connections to oil, more specifically the House of Saud and the Carlyle group

b) close contact with the Neocons who surrounded the Reagan Administration and had ties with his father

c) close contact with the religious right in his born-againness

d) And there was probably something true (and sick) about GWB's vendetta to go after the guy his father tussled with (especially since there was no doubt, the idea that since Saddam was someone "we made", then he was someone we could take out)

Notice that items A,B, and D come about because of the dynastic nature of the Presidency kept within a family who had a concentration of power. This is why dynasties must be avoided at all costs. (The Clintons have their own version of this tied especially to the financial sector and Wall Street. Continuing right on with Chelsea getting a job at a high-profile hedge fund.)

I would suspect that the Administration wants the news to leak out that we will be pulling cheap oil out of Iraq (the "how" remains to be seen) because there is a notion going around Washington right now (I just talked with my Congressman) that if we can show the speculators that supplies aren't tight, they will go way.

This is again, stupid wishful thinking and a form of denial. The speculators full well know we are past peak oil and therefore time is on their side anyway. Of course, Washington wants to do anything to drive the price down at least until November... because Americans are dumb enough to forget history, ignore science, and be played the fool.


All these other factors were mere window dressing or extras on the set. It's the oil... Resource scarcity only drives up the value.

If you control the money and energy supply of any country the body politic will follow.

Vox P: I disagree, but I do like the avatar.

Just next door on the rec list (where I didn't think this blurb would end up, but thanks all the same), Doc Nebula argues that the war was intentionally bungled to drive up the price of oil so that oil companies could earn even greater profits. I'd have to say that as far as conspiracy theories go, that's pretty whacked out for my taste, but some might find it provocative, at least.

I know, I know... oil, oil. But I am meeting more and more people that use the exact same argument to explain the current price of oil:

GWB is helping his oil buddies just before he leaves office.

This completely ignores peak oil and a few other factors.

So saying it is oil, doesn't explain how the neocons for at least 8 years were writing papers on going into Iraq. They were quite clear that they wanted an American hegemony. Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld haven't gone to work for the oil companies or the construction companies.

Rumsfeld, in particular, is still working on ideology at Stanford.

And that's the most scary thing of all: we had zealots deciding policy who wanted America to "take over the world". This is the stuff that was supposed to happen in other countries, not here.

But happen it did.

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I believe that deep, deep down, every single NeoCon who has ever said or written a word that ended up on the PNAC Web site knows that the NeoCon ideology is complete and total crap. And yes, I include George Bush in that group.

Which doesn't mean that Ideology ain't a great gal to cuddle up with on a cold night and forget about what sorry excuses for humans they are.

Rumsfeld? He's a smart guy. He knows it's crap. But being Mr. "Got NeoCons?" at Stanford is a good job, and every now and then he's so convincing at it that he brings a tear to his own eye. Same with the rest of them.

********

Oil does explain the NeoCon papers. Oil is, for this generation at least, the most pervasively important commodity on the planet. Particularly if you're interested in taking over the planet. I mean, you're going to need oil for your armies, you know? Can't take over a nation if somebody else controls its oil supply. For the NeoCons, practically speaking, control of the world's oil supply and running the world are the same thing. (It's not like they're in it to do a good job or anything. They're not worried about providing good food or clean water, for God's sake.)

Clearthinker is right that there were a number of factors in play. But what the NeoCons did with such chilling success was find the one thing they needed to focus on. Then they just had to figure out ways to get people with different skills and parallel interests working in synch with one another so they could game this thing up. It's not like they came out of nowhere--they were already some of the most powerful people in the world. But when they all got together under the NeoCon umbrella they were able to "supersize" AND sell their own enrichment on a number of levels. (NeoConservatism had at least one feature that just about everybody could love, by design.)

So I don't buy the idea that ideology was at the root of it all. Ideology is just the angle they used to sell the package to the people who actually care about that stuff.

***

I cannot understand why Armchair Guerilla does not see Doc Nebula's point about the "bungling" of Iraq. I don't think it was a deliberate bungle so much as a reflection of the fact that the NeoCons never did give a crap about what happened to Iraq. Oil that they control, under the ground they control, is just as good as oil that's flowing. Maybe even better because it contributes to the notion of scarcity. ("Oh, and thank you, peak oil people, for happening to be sincerely correct at just the right moment to make the scarcity argument even more compelling. So kind of you.")

I do think the NeoCons are a little upset that so many Americans have died or been injured in Iraq and Afghanistan. That aspect of things has tended to diminish them. But that's why the NeoCons built Ideology and Pax Americana into their system, so they could turn to them for comfort during those maudlin moments when they consider the sacrifice the little people have made. It's all for a good cause, right? "Thank you, fervent but dumb and now deceased Americans, your efforts on behalf of that crap we sold you mean more to us than you'll ever know."

Do I seem bitter? I think I seem bitter.

Honestly, I can't say I'm sure what it was about. I can however feel confident saying that it wasn't about anything we were told.

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