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Is New Hampshire Really in Play?
Most outlets have New Hampshire as a battleground this November, not so fast:
Conventional wisdom has it that New Hampshire, largely thanks to
Senator John McCain’s history there in presidential primaries, will be
competitive this fall. In fact, in my initial picks on what the
electoral map would look like this November, in most scenarios outside
of a total Obama sweep, I had NH in the McCain column. Almost every
recent media discussion has had NH as a “battleground state” this fall.
However, as is quite often the case (particularly in this election
cycle), is conventional wisdom wrong?
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Comments (4)
I live in VT, and I went to high school in NH. I also happen to live right near the border, so I frequently visit NH, such as Hanover (where Dartmouth is located).
Originally this election season, I said that NH was a lost cause for Obama. NH seems to LOVE McCain. But NH is not a lost cause.
a) Obama has been doing quite well in the polls in NH, sometimes even coming out ahead of McCain in certain polls.
b) McCain has never been tested as a GE election candidate. Simply because he's been loved in the primary does not mean he will find the same adoration in the GE.
c) Locally it's a decently Democratic state. It has a Dem. Governor, and its two Congressional Representatives are Democrats. It's also good to realize that though both its Senators are Republican, John Sununu won by a very small margin, and he's (as far as I know) in a tough race with former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
d) Politics in NH have become more liberal in recent years. For example, it's now one of the only states in the country to allow civil unions/same-sex marriage.
All of this and more gives me the impression that the state is very much in play for Obama as much as it is for McCain.
June 16, 2008 2:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
NH is acting up again as VT's evil twin. I have sent some stickers to family up there (3 voters), and have begged and pleaded for their support and for them to beg and plead their friends to go for Barack.
As far as what will make NH voters see that they will actually KEEP more money under Barack's plan, I just don't know. (Besides Steven Tyler, their can't be that many up their pulling in $2.0MM+...) They'll have to see through the McCain chicanery.
Perhaps David Ortiz can come out for Barack and go on a tour of the state while he's rehabbing on the DL.
June 16, 2008 3:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, there are quite a few people up here in Steven Tyler's tax bracket. But that's beside the point, because I don't think McCain's economic policy is what will sway voters. They like him because he's seen as a "maverick". At least that's how he was seen in 2000.
The style of Republicanism up here is more in the libertarian mode rather than right wing idealogue. After all, our state motto is Live Free or Die. And we have more registered Independents than Democrats or Republicans.
So we need to keep hammering on the point that MCain is NOT a maverick, that he IS more like Bush than he wants to admit, and that he is not the man he was 8 years ago.
I believe NH can go Democratic this year. The war is very, very unpopular, and yes, the economy is important too but I don't think McCain will make any ground on that issue.
I volunteered with Obama's campaign in the primary and intend to keep going for the general. We can make New Hampshire blue. Yes we can!
June 16, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
KZ - "MCain is NOT a maverick." You got it, this needs to be hammered every day.
June 16, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
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