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Intrade Considering a Hillary Independent Campaign?
The political futures market www.intrade.com has shown an interesting, and unusual reversal. The contract for Hillary Clinton becoming president is now trading above the contract for her winning the Democratic nomination.
2008.PRES.CLINTON(H) bid 6.0, ask 6.1, last 6.0
2008DEOM.NOM.CLINTON bid 4.9, ask 5.0, last 4.9
Is the market perhaps pricing in the possibility of an independent run? It's more likely this is simply caused by market inefficiencies (transactions costs of 0.3-0.5 per contract would make it impossible to profit from arbitrage here), but it the idea that the market gives some weight to a possible third party candidacy could also explain this oddity.
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Comments (7)
Here's something I heard, but it would be good to have a confirmation. In California, and probably other states, Hillary can not run as an independent because she already participated in Dem primaries.
If this is true, an independent run for Hillary is a non-starter.
June 4, 2008 7:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've heard that also, albeit with a caveat that it might be possible for some smart lawyer to find a loophole around it.
She could certainly get on the ballot in Connecticut if she tried!
FWIW, the Clinton bid to win the nomination is now down to 3.8, but her bid to win outright is still 6.0. So the market probably doesn't know about California!
June 4, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
(I) Hillary Clinton, your future president, thank you for this endorsement.
You and millions of hard-working, cute puppies like you, white hard-working, cute puppies like you have cast ballots for your future president - me!
So at this time, I would like to congratulate Barack Obama, junior Senator from Illinois, who is not a Republican so far as I know, on not yet winning the Democratic nomination, and wish him well, and will do whatever I can to support him, in his bid for the presidency, against my run as an independent in 2008.
Much Love,
Hillary MMV(I)(I)(I)
June 4, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think yu really meant (R)(I)(D)
June 4, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
With all due respect, Sentaor Clinton, you've insulted my and my apricot poodle family! But thank you for calling me cute and hard-working.
And I do appreciate your support for canine suffrage.
June 4, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
(I) Hillary Clinton, your future president, reject and denounce your obvious attempt to play the apricot race card. It is simply historical fact that Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in 1984.
You, and the sexist puppy media are directly responsible for the assassination of RFK by Bosnian sniper fire.
Much Love,
Hillary - The Puppy Candidate.
June 4, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just want to let everybody know, for historical reference, that June 4 was the day the WWII Battle of the Midway began.
I just automatically think of June 4 as Battle of the Midway Day, in case that ever pops up in conversation and it seems inexplicable or inappropriate to you.
That's just how I remember it's June 4.
So don't freak out or make a big deal out of it if I bring it up.
June 4, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
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