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Hysteria Aside, Hillary Clinton's Concession is Speedy by Historical Standards

If you haven't been living under a rock over the past few months, you know that Hillary Clinton has been taken a serious beating from the mainstream media and the liberal blogosphere because she has stayed in the race despite overwhelming odds.

A fairly typical heated response from an Obama supporter was Andrew Sullivan's. On June 3 he wrote:

The speech tonight was a remarkable one for a candidate who has lost the nomination, though not remarkable for a Clinton. It was an assertion that she had won the nomination and a refusal to concede anything to her opponent. Classless, graceless, shameless, relentless. Pure Clinton.

Now -- only about 24 hours after Obama was projected the winner of the Democratic primary by the AP and all the major news networks -- the Clinton campaign has made its suspension official, and it has also said it will keep its promise to endorse Obama.

It is time for Democrats to take a deep breath, calm down, and be grateful that the process is coming to a close. I think Ross Douthat of The Atlantic set exactly the right tone:

It would probably been better for the party if Hillary had conceded defeat somewhat earlier ... But I think that once a few months have gone by, at least some of outrage that Hillary Clinton has generated among liberal pundits by campaigning to the bitter end in a race that she ended up losing by just over a hundred pledged delegates and roughly half a percent of the popular vote will seem, in hindsight, faintly hysterical.

Tom Bevan also presents a considered, reasoned reaction to Clinton's decision. He writes:

Clinton clearly could have been more gracious on Tuesday night in acknowledging Obama's achievement, and she could have used softer language in describing her campaign. On the other hand, as a candidate who spent the better part of two years campaigning and who won 18 million votes across the country fighting her way to what was for all intents and purposes a tie, she also had ample justification for touting her accomplishments and for not conceding immediately on Tuesday night - despite what others may have wanted.

Sullivan, however, is not taking back anything he's said. He digs in deeper, responding to Devan:

And historically, losing candidates concede after the last primary has delivered an insurmountable victory to his or her opponent - and usually long before. Those were the rules the Clintons set for Jerry Brown back in 1992; they are rules everyone else follows. I see no reason to acquiesce to the delusions and pathologies of Clinton entitlement. 

However, the facts are not on Sullivan's side. History teaches that Obama supporters who find themselves angry with Clinton for staying in the race have lost perspective.

It's true that many presidential candidates drop out when it seems their odds of winning are insurmountable (think Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, etc.) But at least since Super Tuesday, it has been obvious that the Obama v. Clinton contest was altogether in a separate category.

Most careful watchers of the race have predicted for several months that neither Obama nor Clinton would have enough pledged delegate votes to "go over the top" and secure enough delegates to win the nomination. For this scenario, there is only one close historical analogy: 1984's race between Walter Mondale and Gary Hart.

Like 2008, the 1984 race featured two Democratic frontrunners who finished the primary season without either candidate securing enough delegates to win outright. Therefore, vice president Mondale, leading in the pledged delegate count, worked the phones for superdelegate support.

Meanwhile, Hart, Mondale's opponent, argued that superdelegates should overturn the results of the primaries because he was the superior candidate. He argued that polls showed him the superior general election candidate and that he won late primary successes -- blowouts in big states like California -- that he should be the nominee.

Of course, Hart's arguments failed to win over the superdelegates. Mondale won the Democratic nomination with the help of a pledged delegate plurality and a few dozen superdelegates.

So, students of history, when did Hart drop out of the race? After Mondale named himself the victor, Hart challenged: “Welcome to overtime. It is not over.”

In fact, Hart took his race for the White House all the way to the Democratic convention in San Francisco. On June 3, 2008, Hart told the New York Observer:

“I think what I really was motivated by was the overwhelming sense of my delegates that they had worked very hard—some of them for a year or a year and a half or more—and that they wanted me to be nominated and to demonstrate their support even if I could not get the nomination,” Mr. Hart said.

Thus, as any objective observer would remark, it seems there are some key differences between 1984 and 2004: First, unlike Hart, Clinton faced tremendous pressure from the media, party elders, DNC officials, not to mention relentless criticism by the liberal blogosphere, to surrender early. Second, unlike Hart, Clinton has not responded by forcing the contest into "overtime".

By historical standards, Clinton has ended her campaign speedily. This is not to deny that she is certainly due for criticism for many other reasons -- for example, by continuing to wage certain "negative attacks" against Obama even as her chances seemed hopeless. But critics who say she overstayed her welcome in the race are subjecting her to historically unprecedented criticism.
d




Just like this year, neither candidate had accumulated enough pledged delegates during the primary season to claim an outright delegate majority. Thus, it fell to the superdelegates—some 568 of them back in ’84, the first year such a species existed—to put one of them over the top.

But again, just like today, their commitments were flexible; they could pledge themselves to one candidate and flip to the other for any reason at any time, right up until the convention roll call. And, as with Hillary Clinton and Michigan in recent days, Mr. Hart was threatening to challenge the seating of bunches of Mondale delegates over a dispute that had simmered for much of the campaign.

And so, just after Mr. Mondale staked his claim in St. Paul, Mr. Hart made his own declaration from Los Angeles: “Welcome to overtime. It is not over.”

Hart pressed his campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in San Francisco. On June 3, he said:

“I think what I really was motivated by was the overwhelming sense of my delegates that they had worked very hard—some of them for a year or a year and a half or more—and that they wanted me to be nominated and to demonstrate their support even if I could not get the nomination,” Mr. Hart said.

Thus, there are two major differences between Hart's campaign and Clinton's campaign: First, Clinton faced far more pressure to drop out of the race before the end of the primaries or the convention. Second, in the end, Clinton has not declared that the game will continue into "overtime".

In short, criticism that Clinton overstayed her welcome in the race is historically unprecedented. Angry Obama supporters -- and even many embarrassed Clinton supporters -- have good cause to reconsider their hostility.

Blah


Comments (27)

Drat! I hate TPM blogging tools and lack of edit features. Please ignore everything after the post's true end -- "But critics who say she overstayed her welcome in the race are subjecting her to historically unprecedented criticism."

'commended.

The only gripe I have with your post is that one incidence (1984 primary) doesn't qualify as a historical precedent.

Nice job though! A good expansion on Digby's post on the same subject.

Rather, I should say, "one incident doesn't make a 'historical standard'."

I see your point, but really the Mondale/Hart battle is the only historical precedent that fits this race closely so it's the closest thing we have to a guide for what's reasonable. I'm not sure if the Obama v. Clinton race sets a new standard or not, because I'm not sure that the media and blogosphere, who operate by "Clinton rules", would have criticized Clinton the way they did if she was not a Clinton. I guess we'll find out the next time there's a race this close.

Thanks! In some ways I blame the media for this...particularly the op-ed media and cable talk shows. Remember in 2000 when the public turned impatient on the vote count and wanting the decision to be over right now. The public didn't start that way, that impatience was fed by a media desperate to go on vacation. Tired of the long campaign, they had their trips booked, their tickets purchase and damn it all, democracy got in the way. And they did their level best to throw democracy under the bus so they could grab the next plane to Bimini.

Much of the impatience and demand on Clinton comes from the same motivation. They are tired of being on the road. They get a vacation after the primary is over. They want their time off. Add to this the affronted male privilege that is stunned, shocked and outraged that a woman didn't fold her tent and pack it in when told to do so. Add to the the complete ahistorical, fact-allergic cadre of media blatherers and you get what you get.

Then there is Andrew Sullivan who has always hated Clinton pathologically. Actually, Sullivan is a bad example. He's bent his pen to bashing so many women that I chalk him up as a complete misogynist. To be frank, I find it completely repellent that someone can be pro-gay and anti-choice. And he will never be forgiven for his fifth column remarks.

I agree that voter and media fatigue is largely to blame for the "Get Hillary Out Now" problem, just as it played a roll in the 2000 Florida recount. When there is 24 hour cable news and thousands of bloggers writing their blogs and looking for something to say, woe to the candidate who dares to ask for the sort of patience that democracy used to allow.

P.S.: I agree Sullivan has lost all perspective on the Clintons, but he isn't all that anti-choice. He supports abortion rights in the first trimester.

I wasn't going to bring it up, but I'm glad someone did.

Sullivan is an opportunist who can see which way the wind is blowing. You can count on him to jump on any issue, any movement and any bandwagon [i]as soon as[/i] it has become clearly popular.

Of course, he'll never confront the people that held his newly-found beliefs before they were popular. You know, the people that he so condescendingly wrote about beforehand.

He is a political chameleon, a fair weather independent/liberal/conservative (or whatever he professes to be anymore) and, at his core, someone who wishes [i]very[/i] hard that he was one of the Big Pundits. He is all these things, but he is not a journalist, or even someone worth reading.

So it's with some chargrin that I see Sullivan has taken a liking to Democratic ideals (this is, of course, after 60% or so of the population already did). On one hand, his endorsment means that Democrats are on the up and up. On the other hand, everything he has previously loved turned to utter shit...

I'd still do Sullivan.

That still makes him anti-choice. However, he was even more anti-choice in the past and may have mellowed some. Or he may be reading the writing on the wall. He reminds me of many swing voters, the ones who check the polls the day they vote so they vote for the winner...wanting to make sure they "got it right" so to speak - as though Voting were graded on a curve.

I quit reading him long ago but I remember his anti-choice rhetoric clearly. I also have seen him on Bill Maher's program a few times and he has never said anything to convince me he has recanted. I have always been more angered by his anti-choice rhetoric because he and other gays often center their legal argument on the right to privacy, a right won by women. It seems so opportunistic to use that right to claim your rights, while arguing women don't have that right.

I will confess that means I am unfair. That I expect gays to be more supportive of choice as an issue because they rely on the right to privacy to assert their rights. I acknowledge that openly, I do expect better from them than from other people whose right to privacy is so protected they never even have to assert it.

Well put Joe, although I am not one of the embarrassed Hillary supporters. I am a proud Hillary supporter. I know, you said to forget that part. :)

I think the media will chase a story that it thinks will sell. I noticed that all of the media started out staying that Sen. Clinton was the inevitable candidate; it was a coronation and she was the next POTUS. Joe Scarboroogh even went as far as to say that Sen.Obama was going to be chewed up by Sen. Clinton. I wonder if Morning Joe and the rest of fourth estate wants to apologize to Sen.Obama and Sen.Clinton for making such outrageous claims?

The fourth estate owes Sen.Clinton's supporters an apology because they mislead in the run-up to the Democratic nomination. Perhaps they did over correct what they did so wrong in the beginning?

They owe all of us an apology for broadcasting malpractice in the run-up to the Iraq.

Do we see how they manufacture situations?

I guess this wasn't the greatest upset in election history after all. Just another lousy election.

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Good post! As someone who helped on the Clinton campaign, it is not the few days between Tuesday and Saturday that bothers me (back in March, I predicted that she would officially suspend on the 9th). It is how she mapped out her Tuesday night speech, and how she threw red meat to her hardest-core supporters just before she asked everyone to be patient.

A distinction that I would like to point out between '84 and '08: the convention in '84 was MUCH earlier.

John Edwards dropped out months ago but only recently endorsed Obama.

In 2004, Dean suspended his campaign on February 18th, but didn't endorse Kerry until March 25th.

Bill Bradley endorsed Gore pretty quickly, but that was after Bradley lost every single primary/caucus. Moreover, when he dropped out, he said he would hold on to his delegates.

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At that point in the election in 2004 when Howard Dean dropped out, John Edwards was still running. He didn't endorse until Edwards left the race. He didn't want to play favorites.

If you look at all of the winners of the past several elections there was a sort of a clearing of the field and inevitability when it became clear who was going to win. You can even look at this years republican race.

Mitt Romney could have raced a while longer with McCain, and probably won some states but he dropped out to consolidate the party. Huckabee ran a campaign that was designed to give the "Conservative Base" a voice. When it became apparent that he wasn't going to win he ran his campaign in a fashion to be Pro-Conservatives but not Anti-McCain.

Let's look at the resent Presidential Winners:

George W Bush 2004 -- Ran Virtually Unopposed
George W Bush 2000 -- McCain Dropped out after he was beat in 11 out of 16 primaries.
Bill Clinton 1996 -- Virtually Unopposed
Bill Clinton 1992 -- Tsongas suspended his campaign calling Clinton the presumptive nominee and said Clinton was in the driver's seat. Interestingly enough Tsongas had a great showing three weeks later in New York and decided to remain out of the race. "To hope that I will re-enter is a false hope," he said. "I will not re-enter. Preserve the message, yes. But we must heal the party as well. Both are noble purposes and I hope to be part of bringing both into reality."

The only other Challenger to Clinton was Jerry Brown the Governor of California. When he saw the inevitable he pulled back. There was a California primary that he surely could have won, but he didn't campaign and didn't advertise so that Clinton could win in a landslide and have the "FairyTale" ending in his campaign.

George HW BUSH 1988 -- Ran against Pat Robertson and Bob Dole. Both dropped out Shortly after Super Tuesday.

Ronald Reagan 1984 -- Virtually Unopposed
Ronald Reagan 1980 -- George HW Bush dropped out of the race in May and became the Vice President.
Jimmy Carter 1976 -- Jerry Brown entered the race late and only garnered 10% of the delegates. George Wallace who that year wasn't a very serious contender didn't concede until June. But unlike the previous Conventions this one was about party unity.

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If anyone is pathologically delusional, it's Andrew Sullivan.

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Okay, Folks Here are a few examples of Races where the Loser took his case all the way to the Convention and the General Election Result:

88 Democrats
Michael Dukakis versus Jesse Jackson
Loss

84 Democrats
Walter Mondale versus Gary Hart
Loss

80 Democrats
Jimmy Carter versus Ted Kennedy Loss

76 Republicans
Gerald Ford versus Ronald Reagan Loss

In a separate note, 1968 was gearing up to be a convention battle when tragedy struck the Bobby Kennedy. The feel good atmosphere that a party usually wants to convey from a party convention was marred by the antiwar rally and police brutality outside the convention. Resulting in a Loss for the Democratic party.

Overall, the battles to the convention floor by candidates haven’t strengthened the base of the respective parties.

Before 68 the systems for picking the President seemed more like a combination of primaries, and backroom deals. Candidates could be “drafted” to run as Adlai Stevenson hoped he would be in 1960. Not all states had primaries so the system was a bit more politician friendly.

Thank you for the thorough examples. I wonder if there's even one where it's gone to the convention and the party DIDN'T lose?

What bothers me the most, is bargening tone of her delay. That's not classy at all.

Joe: I thought you were done with this site. This is a welcome piece. I agree wholeheartedly. And I second, third and fourth the criticisms of Sullivan. I can't stand the guy. Let's not forget that he was swooning over Bush for years and was one of the most ardent cheerleaders for the Iraq war. He is no more credible merely because he has switched to "our" side.

Speaking of primitive blogging tools, how do you end the blockquote feature in the blog? Once I hit the blockquote button, I can't get back to the original margin. If I hit the button again, it just indents further.

The best way I have found is to format all things as the last step before posting, that way having blockquotes in there doesn't hamper your ability to add original content.

Of course, this is much easier in the comments section using tags.

To break up quotes and commentary. I am guessing they will change something soon before they start losing eye balls.

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Good piece, Joe. I worked for Hart back in 1984 and felt that he did have a chance in going to the convention. Between the end of the primaries and the convention, he and his wife called every superdel to make his case but to no avail. They were party insiders like Mondale and he was the outsider.

Thanks for the post! Either candidate was going to have to deal with a long Primary season no matter the outcome. There was no way around it.

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I'd like to see a list of "Get Out Now Hillary" op-eds and clips of teevee pundits saying the same. I doubt there are many though there were plenty of "She Can't Win" ones in May.

Even Chris Matthews told Terry McAuliffe when he was trying to sell that line at 100 decibels that he "was arguing with nobody". Matthews made it very clear the networks loved the ratings the extended race gave them.

"They're trying to force her out" was major pushback by the Clinton forces. Obama didn't push it. The media didn't push it though all parties outside the Clinton camp did agree with the obvious after May 6, she couldn't win.

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Two things:

First - bit of a nitpick, but you say that the "criticism" about her long campaign is unprecendented, yet you only show that the long campaign itself has precedent.

Was there no criticism of Gary Hart? Was it much milder than HRC has gotten? To what extent do her traditionally high negatives play a factor?

Second, and harder to answer is - who's responsibility is candidate fatigue? We all know groundswell opinion isn't always fact-based (see:Flag Pin) but it is real nonetheless. What caused such a strong, ubiquitous reaction? As you say, even some of her staunchest supporters want closure.

How does that happen, if this really is such a nonevent?

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I don't remember any pressure for Hart to withdraw. If he could have swung super dels, he could have won the nomination.

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