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Hillary's Road to Second Place (Or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Hate Mark Penn)

Cross-posted from The Left Anchor.  For those of you who missed our two week long series, you can view all thirteen of our vice presidential profiles here.


The Wall Street Journal did a fine piece on what went wrong with Hillary Clinton's campaign.  The short answer?  Two words: Mark Penn.

As Sen. Clinton's presidential campaign took shape amid her easy Senate
re-election race in 2006, she wanted Mr. Penn to serve as both chief
strategist and sole pollster. Virtually no one else in the campaign
did. Since his work on Mr. Clinton's 1996 re-election, current and
former associates have criticized Mr. Penn as too data-driven, more
comfortable with centrist general-election campaigns than Democratic
primaries, socially awkward and not a strategic thinker.

<snip>

Critics' bigger complaint was that from the campaign's start Mr. Penn had been its only pollster. Other campaigns typically use many pollsters to provide alternative views; Sen. Obama has had up to four. Ms. Solis Doyle says that throughout 2006 and 2007, she urged Sen. Clinton to add more. Sen. Clinton told advisers Mr. Penn is "brilliant," and multiple pollsters would slow consensus on strategy.

But top aides chafed that Mr. Penn used his control of "the numbers" to win most disagreements. "He could go straight to the [former] president of the United States, who in turn got to Hillary," says a senior strategist. "After a while, people just shrugged their shoulders and said, 'Hey, look, this is how she wants her campaign run.'"

Mr. Penn defends his polling analyses, and counters that others were responsible for budgets and field operations. "The misleading thing here is, the title of chief strategist connotes that I was in charge of things," he said. "It was a much more complex structure than any title connotes." As for the core staff's divisions, he evoked Abraham Lincoln's contentious but largely successful cabinet. "I think she had in mind a 'team of rivals' idea, and it almost worked."

Oh, please.  There is no evidence that Hillary Clinton wanted a "team of rivals."  Hillary Clinton's senior staffers had one thing in common: their zealous loyalty to Sen. Clinton.  That's not to be unexpected in a campaign, of course, but to try and compare that to Lincoln's cabinet, wherein he employed people that pretty much hated him is ridiculous.  I also love how Penn continues to weasel out of his responsibilities on the campaign.  The title Chief Strategist doesn't mean he was in charge of strategy?  I guess this is like the O.J. trial and we're all going to have to wait while Mark Penn tracks down the real chief strategist.  Maybe he was on the grassy knoll.

Clinton's mistakes are not myriad or hard to identify.  They are three: she ran with a message that was out of step with the mood of the electorate, she failed to consider that she might face a genuine challenge from one of her opponents, and she dismissed a slew of states as unimportant.  All of these issues can be traced back to one source: hubris.  Clinton couldn't get the message right because she was running an "incumbent" campaign.  Who runs an incumbent campaign for an office for which you haven't even been nominated yet?  So, we end up with Clinton talking about experience, when the country is really looking for someone to just steer the ship in a new direction.  Saying you've been on deck the whole time while the captain's been slaloming through the ice bergs is probably not the best way to approach the issue.  And who was the architect of Clinton's messaging?  Why, her chief strategist and sole pollster, of course.  It's not just that Mark Penn got it wrong, it's that plenty of people in the campaign had it right, but were rebuffed:

Before her January 2007 debut as a candidate, the senator's team wrangled over how to portray her. Ms. Solis Doyle, communications director Howard Wolfson, media strategist Mandy Grunwald, policy chief Neera Tanden and senior strategist Harold Ickes wanted to promote her as a candidate of change -- the first woman president -- her Washington years notwithstanding. They also wanted to counter the candidate's high negative ratings among the general population by revealing the witty, engaging woman they knew.

Mr. Penn, by contrast, believed that voters would need to perceive Sen. Clinton as tough and seasoned enough to be the first female commander in chief. Emphasizing her gender too much, he argued, would undercut that. He also said Sen. Clinton would look weak if she apologized for her 2002 war vote, though it was especially unpopular in Iowa.

When one insider pleaded during meetings in 2007 to humanize the candidate, witnesses say Mr. Penn responded: "Being human is overrated."

Yes, when you're candidate already has an image of being a mechanical, poll driven poltician of limitless ambition (and I'm not saying it's a fair characterization), then the last thing you want to do is take some of the edge off that by "humanizing" her.  My theory is that Mark Penn undervalues the quality of being a human being -- long considered a necessity to even be eligible for public office - due to his clearly alien origins.  I mean, just look at this guy?  If he was born on Earth, then I'm the king of Spain.  That guy hatched from an egg, no two ways about it.

And not only did Sen. Clinton demonstrate poor judgment through her continued faith in Mark Penn, but she and her husband also reportedly soured quickly on the caucuses.  After losing Iowa, they responded not as most might by strengthening their efforts in caucus states, but by relinquishing those contests all together:

By last summer, when the Clinton campaign began organizing in Iowa, the volunteer-strong Obama network had already mobilized supporters statewide. Advisers say the Iowa loss hardened both Clintons against caucuses. With money getting tight and polls in caucus states discouraging, Sen. Clinton scaled back spending and appearances in places such as Idaho and Nebraska, effectively forfeiting them.

Mr. Ickes, a rules expert, had long argued against the strategy. Last June at a meeting at the Penn home, Mr. Penn suggested Sen. Clinton would get all 370 state delegates when she won California's primary, attendees say. Mr. Ickes, they say, mocked him: "The vaunted chief strategist" doesn't know that party rules aren't winner-take-all?

Lose in Iowa?  Well then just take your ball and go home.  Forget about those other nasty caucus states.  And that, in a nutshell, is how you lose an election.


Comments (14)

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I don't think Penn is an alien life form, he is something far scarier, a republican.

I submit that these two things are not mutually exclusive. He's a Republican from beyond the stars.

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He does sort of resemble Jabba the Hutt.

The men in Hillarys life have failed her, Bill became a distraction at the the end, which is sad in that Bill Clinton was great president and he seems to be tarnishing his image everytime he opens his mouth. Mark Penn seems to have spent most his time making sure he got paid while doing very little to help his candidate.

I wonder if all those years that Bill Clinton worked with Mark Penn were a success because Bills political skills compensated for Penns tone deafness. Maybe Bill Clinton and Mark Penn were right for the nineties but Penn was not right for the year 2008.

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The thing is that Penn worked well for Bill. He and Bill were a team. The problem is that Penn was not the best guy for Hill. What Hill did was rely on Bill's judgment by selecting Penn, even though she underSTOOD he was a great strategist. She never stopped to think if about if those strategy's would be best for HER. The irony of that is she emphasized how unique and historical her candidacy was being a woman, yet she herself was tonedeaf to the reality that she could not simply run a campaign in terms of how she came across to the public, in the same manner as a male.

In fact, it was Penn's 'masculine' advice that defeminized her and made her not only less appealing as a woman but also less appealing as a human being.

None of that same advice would have had an similiar impact on Bill, because he is a man. Bill could have stood tough on a wrong vote and come across as resolute..that does not work for women a woman has to come across as resolute but with a LISTENING ear, who will RECONSIDER and REFLECT, on the issues.

In short, Hillary could have retracted her vote stance based on how things came out and she would have looked far more so like a leader who would not 'stay the course' and one would lead based on the evolving nature of events.

Hill's own intelligence did her in. She over ruled her staff. Which I have consistently said is one of her biggest flaws....while she has analytic intelligence she lacks deductive reasoning and is soooo politically tone deaf that even when she gets good advice she overrules it. Hillary lacks judgment plain and simple.

Which is why the healthcare bill was a debacle. Worst of all, Edwards called her out in the debates and noted, she doesn't learn from her mistakes.

All of the problems Hillary had in this campaign were no different than the ones she had in LittleRock her first term as FirstLady...she was so unlikely and so adamant about not conforming to the social conventions in the south that the people in LittleRock did not re-elect Bill. Hillary was busy being Hillary Rodham, showing what a strong woman she was and just not making any effort to get along as MRS Bill Clinton. She turned off the voters and Bill loss. Hillary learned nothing from that experience other than to become a negative polarizing campaigner. Which worked for THEM, basically him, but will not work for HER.

Why?

Why what?

I think it's important to make sure Mark Penn is so discredited that he never finds his way back to Democratic politics again.

I'm sorry that it's impossible to criticize him without bringing Hillary Clinton into it. I do agree that we need to come together, but I'll hammer Mark Penn until I'm in the cold, cold ground.

Let me make it clear: I don't mean this post as a slam on Hillary Clinton. But Mark Penn is a poisonous force on Democratic politics, and I've promised in the past to take every opportunity to bash him.

I think he reinforced Hillary's worst instincts, and steered her campaign into the ground (message wise). I think Hillary is a consummate politician and I believe she really will give her all on behalf of Obama this year.

But Mark Penn must be stopped at all costs.

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I agree with just about everything you said, but also note that the entire Hillary Clinton campaign was navigating uncharted waters in a way that her husband's campaigns never did. It strikes me that there's something very different about running for President as a woman, and in a way, although it clearly proved to be the wrong strategy (and I don't really like him either), I can understand why Penn decided to portray her as tough, and also as inevitable. Maybe one needs to be a 50-something white woman in order to understand this. (Disclaimer: I supported Obama in the primary.)

But it surely does sound as if the big mistake was to make her campaign so Penn-centric.

You make a fair point. And I won't deny that women suffer a serious double-standard in politics. If they're too serious, then they're described as "robotic" or worse, but if they're too soft, then they're described as too "emotional" for the position.

Though Penn has far more wrong with his philosophy than that.

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Actually, speaking as a longtime Obama supporter, I think Hillary's campaign ran very strongly, starting March 4, and at least passably up through Super Tuesday. Obama was a formidably skilled politician who never lost his cool in the face of a lot of baiting, while Hillary is not the most charismatic of candidates, and has long had the opposition not merely of the RW, but many NON-RWers (such as myself) for a variety of reasons.

This was, in the end, one of the closest primary competitions ever, as usually the person who is clearly unlikely to make it fades, sometimes to be replaced by another protest candidate, like Tsongas by Jerry Brown.

I think that, for example, Hillary Clinton would NOT be a good choice for VP, not only for the crucial reason that she was among those who supported the Iraq War Resolution, and turned against the war publicly only when it became unpopular, at least with Democrats. She also has so many negatives and such high baggage, she would pose a problem for the Obama campaign, and not just Penn.

I personally favor Barbara Boxer for the VP -- LOW negatives, LOTS of REAL experience, including in particular in foreign policy, voted NO on IWR, very broadly appealing and w/o any serious baggage AFAIK, and strong on the Greenhouse Effect, relative to most other Democrats AND Republicans. I think that she would also appeal to a variety of swing demographics, even though her home state (CA) is hardly a swing state in this election.

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Man, we do forget that the Great Champion of Voter's Rights blew off all the caucus states and didn't give a damn about the voters there. How many were there? 15, 16 at least?

I have no doubt that Hillary in her private circle of friends is engaging. There are numerous reports about this. But I think what we saw on the campaign trail IS Hillary Clinton. When you come right down to it, after 35 years of "experience", she still comes off brittle and hard and uncomfortable. This is who she is.

No one forced Hillary to be anything she didn't want to be. The candidate makes the choices. She chose what she was most comfortable projecting. It now seems clear that she chose to neglect alternative views and approaches, which on its face is a disastrous trait in a potential president. She loved what Penn was telling her. Throughout the process, her negatives were always high. She is not a comfortable presence and should know who the hell she is at this point in her life.

Likewise, there are numerous reports of Obama's campaign staff pushing him to attack harder, etc. He chose to steer his ship with his own moral compass. He may have finished it all earlier if he had defined her better -- God knows I wanted him to. But would he have turned off even more people? We'll never know. But what we do know is that his moral compass runs deep, and win he did. God bless him.

Ultimately, Hillary could only see her next immediate political need and was (and is) incapable of assessing the consequences of her actions. The Clintons are accustomed to having the party and supporters bail them out of reckless choices. To so squander the black vote and not assess the consequences of that, is astounding in its stupidity to me, for a couple who so live and breathe the political life. As she touted her wins in PA and OH as proof she would win those states in the GE, I've always wondered how she intended to do that without overwhelming support from blacks in Philly and Cleveland. And the tragedy was that as late as Wednesday, she seemed dumbfounded that her Congressional supporters weren't going to back her as she took her destructive path all the way to the convention, their own careers and the strength of the party notwithstanding.

The campaign lost because the choices the candidate made. Time to take responsibility.

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You make good points 57andfemale.

Obama and Hill chose to be the individuals they projected. I think that Obama also had more experience with knowing that what his camapigners or pundits were pushing him to be would not work for him. Obama learned early how strong and aggressive a 'blackmale' can be when working with mainstream America. He also knew how it would backfire.

On the other hand, Hillary has been living in a cocoon when it comes to the negatives of her gender, based on the fact that she is MRS Bill Clinton. Hill gets a lot more leeway she leverages a lot more power and folks are far more likely to be sycophants in there efforts to get into Hill's circle in order to reach their true target which is Bill.

Hill took that for granted, otherwise she would not have had the audacity to even let folks beleive that she was the 'inevitable' candidate. She has been living and basking in the power from Bill's reflection so long that she no longer even knew where HER true boundaries were based on her own flaws as a individual and her gender.

Hill was unable to judge her own import. She has an inflated view of it and she is not astute enough to discern where the love of Bill ends and distaste for Hill begins.

Obama did not have that issue because our society treats a person of color the same independent of their parents race. That individual feels the full impact when they engage folks on their own and they quickly learn where the acceptance based on knowing the parent ends and the acceptance of them as an individual of color begins. Obama even wrote about that in his book, saying that he stopped telling people his mothers' race because he began to feel that was an attempt to be ingratiating on his part and that he wanted to have acceptance on his own terms.

Hillary missed the gender cues because they were offset by Bill's power and influence which she leveraged to the hilt, but then began to delude herself about it being moreso about her own strengths and stature as a Senator when it was solely about her being MRS Bill Clinton.

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I apologize for my last Comment. I really do. I just read it and I want to stop feeling the way I do about the Clintons.

Analyses of campaign styles is one thing. But I did love and defend the Clintons for 16 years. I'm eager to get back to those feelings. And that starts with me.

So I apologize.

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I too was a staunch supporter of Hillary in the 90s and right until the end.

Yet that has not blinded me to their issues.

Not sure why you are apologizing but I thought your analysis was good and not mean or petty. We do not have to dislike or hate them to understand both their strengths and weaknesses. Many of us saw a side of the Clintons throughout the campaign that was awful. It cheapen their legacy.

Even so, I don't think the Clintons are the sum of their flaws.

It will just take time to refocus on their strengths moreso than the underbelly they exposed during this camapign.

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