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Hillary's Popular Vote Totals Are Bullshit.
Hillary's popular vote numbers are bullshit. Just like her "experience" claims have always been.
In order for her to be ahead, she conveniently leaves out these caucus states in order to come up with her bullshit figures:
AlaskaAdd ALL those votes into the mix (which means 400,000 net votes for Obama) and Obama is well ahead of her 'popular' vote voo-doo math.
Colorado
Hawaii
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
Maine
Minnesota
Nebraska
Nevada
North Dakota
Texas (Caucus only)
Washington
Wyoming
She also leave out ANY popular votes for Obama in Michigan.
That is approximately 183,067 votes in his favor (including Puerto Rico).
The women is a pathological liar.
This is why 75% of supers who have come out in this last month have come out for Obama. They aint' buying her bullshit.
She's a pathetic joke.
Check out Real Clear Politics for all the REAL figures. Hillary Clinton is a LIAR who can't stand the fact Barack Obama out Clintoned her.
OBAMA WON.
HILLARY LOST.
Get over it people.
RenaRF has a lot more in her post, My Math Beats Up Clinton's Math, (which has lots of charts and graphs for you intellectually bankrupt & brain dead, Clinton dead-end supporters).
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Comments (38)
The fucked up math is not Hillary
It's Harold Ickes, the old guard Dem who is a RINO now.
The campaigns set the number to use.
Now in McCains case, he just can't remember that 1+1 = Shiites, and 12-13=WMD.
The math is not a big issue, and neither campaign gets to do the math.
Please remember that, I know it's frustrating to watch on TV, but so is American Idol.
June 1, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear what you're saying. However, SHE is the one out there spouting the bullshit figures and paying for the commercials using the bullshit figures.
But, you're right.
Did you take a Valium or something?! You're to rational!
;-)
June 1, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most of the conveniently distorted math is probably Bill's doing. He wants back into the White House at least as much as Hillary (so many pleasant memories, if you catch my drift), and just can't stand that it's all slipping away, maybe even in part because of mistakes that he has made. He's the one who won't let go here.
And don't blame McCain for bad math - he's an old man. We should all be upright and speaking relatively cohesively at that age!
June 1, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I love the list of states. Folks from any of those states should be real happy with Clinton for wishing them to irrelevance.
June 1, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
that would be me - a Coloradan. Never mind the Saturdays i spent at the convention as a pledged delegate - doing my democratic duty - i don't count.
June 2, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
But you're forgetting: after last weekend, Hillary doesn't want any voters to be disenfranchised...Oh, as long as their not from a caucus state.
June 2, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do go and read RenaRF's Math... fascinating. And let's make sure we pound the MSM with the REAL numbers...
1+1 does not equal 5
June 1, 2008 8:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's now front-paged at DK
June 1, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ignorance of some of the posters on this site is absolutely astonishing. Clear as day on realclearpolitics one can see the popular vote totals for Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, and every other state you listed except for Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine. Only those 4 states did not release popular vote totals which is why there are estimated totals for them in 3 of the top 6 comparisons at the top of the page.
I'm not sure whether you're the pathological liar or just stupid. And then people pat you on the back for this totally erroneous information. If it wasn't so pathetic I'd be laughing.
June 1, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just in case you didn't know, RealClearPolitics also puts Obama ahead, including MI and FL, as long as you give him a reasonable fraction of the uncommitted vote in MI.
June 1, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Ben, I know. When Hillary barely won in Indiana her popular vote argument was dead. For it to get consideration she would have had to have a significant margin in the popular vote with at least excluding MI. She might have been able to make it play including Fl but not including both MI and Fl since Obama removed his name from MI ballot.
But that doesn't change the fact that every nasty insult the OP heaped on Hillary would be more appropiately applied to him as evidenced by his post. Nor does it change the fact that others in this echo chamber applauded him for his completely false information.
June 1, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yeah, I'd like to add that I posted this same analysis the day after the Indiana vote. Its not like I'm just coming to the realization that Hillary lost now.
June 1, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oceankat, you miss the point. To group the vote totals from caucus states (several thousand votes) in with vote totals from primary states (10s to 100s of thousands of votes) dilutes the effect of caucus states to a negligible contribution. If everyone had agreed beforehand that popular vote would matter, no state would have held caucuses. Every state would want to maximize its effect by maximizing the number of voters.
Talking about "popular vote" disenfranchises voters in all caucus states. This is of course Clinton's goal, since that metric favors her. This is one of many problems with the whole Clinton approach of changing the rules after the contest is over. What if the losing World Series baseball team started lobbying that they should really be declared the winner because they scored more total runs, even though they lost 4 games? A joke, right? Why does anyone take Clinton's bogus claim seriously?
June 1, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those are opinions I disagree with. First its clear that Hillary has lost the nomination so perhaps we can finally discuss this process honestly.
There is no legitimate metric in this process to determine the "will of the people." The system is flawed and has been for years. And for years people have been pointing out these flaws and attempt to get the DNC to reform the system.
I agree with most of the arguments which point out the flaws of using the popular vote as a metric to determine the "will of the people." But the pledged delegate count is equally flawed.
While by law parties can choose nominees by any process they choose I believe the goal should be to as nearly as possible find out the "will of the people." In this case democratic voters. All the reforms of the primary system have been to make it more democratic, to more correctly find the will of democratic party members. I agree with that goal and believe that those reforms should continue. Its a process that started when there were no primaries or caucuses and party insiders chose the nominee. It will not end until the democratic party is truly democratic.
To claim that the "will of the people" of Nevada or Texas was to award obama more delegates than Hillary is rediculous.
To use delegates to influence behavior is undemocratic and skews the delegate count. Awarding more delegates to certain regions in a state to encourage turn out in that region is undemocratic. To award more delegates after a certain date to encourage states to set their primary later in the season is undemocratic as well as distorting the "will of the people."
Awarding delegates proportinately by district as opposed to state skews the delegate count. If a district has an even number of delegates and one candidate gets 62% of the vote in that district and the other 38% each gets 2 delegates. I one candidate gets 63% or the vote and the other 37% one gets 3 delegates and the other 1 delegate.
These are just a few of the problems with the current system. Of course it cannot be changed now for this election. Obama played by the rules and won. But Clinton also played by the rules and didn't try to change one of them. The rules are that screwed up.
Each candidate had a plan to take advantage of the undemocratic flaws in the system to win the nomination. Obama more cleverly exploited those flaws and won fair and square by the rules. You can be sure that those rules will be changed so it cannot happen in the future. That's how the democratic party works.
June 1, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just saw your response, shortly before this whole post goes the way of all dust...
We cannot change the electoral system in the GE, or the delegate system in primaries, because a bunch of people have a vested interest in keeping it the way it is. It would be nice to design a new system de novo, in the most moral way possible, but I have a feeling there would be a lot of disagreement on what the most moral way is.
Bottom line is that there are a set of rules, and whichever campaign can navigate those rules best, and appeal to the right voters at the right time, wins. Maybe it makes a little sense? Maybe that is the campaign that will best run the country as well? Probably a stretch, but I'm an optimist...
Best regards, see you next post!
June 2, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uhhhhhh, ya think?!
LOL!
June 1, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Ocean.
Hillary isn't using any caucus states in her tallies.
The list in this post are the states SHE leaves out. Real Clear keep them in (estimates for 4 of them).
Real Clear's totals are REAL, Hillary's aren't.
Add all Caucus states into the equation, including the 4 that haven't reported but can be estimated, and she's behind by a lot.
Stop being so damn disingenuous. You look foolish.
June 1, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been saying, they're trying their damndest to delegitimize his win. If lying is what it takes, they've obviously proven it's not beneath them.
June 1, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
So according to this compromise, Hillary gets half the MI/FL delegates she *did* win, and Barack gets several dozen delegates he *didn't* win!
Some compromise.
June 1, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
except as in reality, darling, NOBODY actually won anything in the original Michigan cluster f***. The compromise supported by a big chunk of HRC's own partisans on the committee is an elegant political resolution of a mess that even the Michigan party admitted to....
June 1, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering the fact that this same body and all of the candidates signed on to give Michigan and Florida a big fat nothing, I'd definitely consider it a compromise.
June 1, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The news totals as of this evening, including all caucus states, P.R., Florida AND Michigan WITH Obama being allotted the uncommitted:
O 17,961,368 48.8%
C 17,916,763 48.7%
Obama +44,605
June 1, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the post Josh. It pisses me off that Clinton hacks are pulling numbers out of their asses and the MSM dickheads are totally sucking up to it. It's very important to establish the fact- Obama won the popular vote.
June 1, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
What t's me off is that surrogates or key staffers in Obama's campaign aren't refuting it.
They may be taking the view that they don't want to buy into anything other than delegate counts but why don't they say so AND refute the Clinton new math?
This is the sort of thing that can take off and accentute the cult following of Clinton
What really raises my ire is that she's running these ads and then Obama is going to be expected to try to pay for them? Worse, she's incurring new expenditures when she hasn't yet paid off ordinary creditors from the previous primary who can't afford to keep funding these expenses.
June 1, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I said on another thread, Obama is simply giving her enough rope...
June 2, 2008 2:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
The popular vote itself is fucked up.
The tiny gross numbers out of MN, WA, CO would split in bigger gross totals for Obama even if the percentage margin were smaller. Popular vote grossly undercounts those big Obama states.
Talking about it at all is asking a stupid question.
June 2, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for pointing this out, Joshua. The bogus argumentation conferring legitimacy onto the "popular vote" needs to be vigorously batted down at every opportunity. (As some may have a noticed, it's one of my own little obsessions. :o)
Even the popular vote totals including estimates of caucus turnouts don't result in a valid representation of voter choice since those states with caucuses end up severely underrepresented compared to those with primaries. It's not fair to those states to change the determining metric after the fact. As Wilh*M put so well:
In response to oceankat, I agree that the nomination system requires an overhaul. I disagree, however, with his sweeping criticism of awarding delegates by district.
In reference to Nevada, which oceankat mentions as an indicator of systemic faults because it awarded Obama more delegates (despite his "loss" there), my understanding is that the party leaders there give relatively more weight to rural districts compared to Las Vegas so as to prevent the interests of the one city from dominating the statewide choice too heavily. That seems like a perfectly valid interest to me. It would I think be counterproductive and contrary to the intention of the nomination process to forbid states from inacting those measures which they believe results in the most representative awarding of their delegates.
June 2, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
thank you for posting this!
June 2, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for posting. The fact that a 'true and fair represenation of the will of the voters' (as Harold Ickes keeps mentioning) is not possible to determine based on popular vote because of the 'tainted' primaries of FL and MI and because of the differences between howthe primary and caucus states count votes (which is why they are translated into a common denominator, the delegate). Clearly the system needs to be revamped.
But as far as this nomination process goes I agree that we should keep working to refute popular vote as a an invalid argument and I called my representatives and told them how I feel about it.
June 2, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry, the 'tainted' primary argument is one of the most self serving and politically convenient arguments to use.
These MI and FL were certified elections. In MI, within the rules Hillary chose to participate by leaving her name on the ballot and Obama chose not to participate.
Sure they were not perfect, but they were all based on choices made by the candidates and the DNC, based on the rules.
If you want to go down the route of 'tainted' elections, you can say that all caucuses are tainted because of voter suppression. But that is not a legit way of looking at things. And we should not accept it anymore than acquiescing to the notion that FL and MI were tainted primaries.
June 2, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
2004 Terry McAuliffe and 2006 Harold Ickes vigorously disagree with you and find your argument self-serving and politically convenient. Only because these are important swing states were they given any delegates after the crap their state parties pulled. Now we'll be rewarded in 2012 with ten January primaries.
Under your logic, maybe she should have waited until the day everyone else was off the ballot and had a victory parade in Detroit.
Even the idiots in the state party recognize they were the ones who fucked this up beyond recognition with their 69/59 split, which is some kind of random, arbitrary guess as to what truly might have happened had they not had a Soviet election.
June 2, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Soviet style elections? Thats not what happened. No one was forced to do anything.
June 2, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a tainted primary when you tell people it isn't going to count and then after they have voted deciding that it does count. You want to talk about "self serving and politically convenient"? Ickes and all of the other Hillary supporters on the RBC voted to strip FL & MI of all of their delegates, and then later when their candidate is tanking try to divide the party and call it a civil rights issue giving them full seating.
It's a tainted primary when the candidates aren't allowed to campaign in those states while they can in others.
It's a tainted primary when only one major candidate is on the ballot.
It's a tainted primary when you have people telling you that voting "uncommitted" is a sabotage vote for the Democratic Party.
June 2, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
FL and MI would have fought to have their votes count without Hillary Clinton. Do you hear any Obama supporters saying do not count the votes? No. They are fighting about how to count the votes.
Both candidates have publicly said that if s/he were the nominee, s/he would reinstate full voting rights for MI and FL at the convention, which as the nominee, s/he has the right to do.
June 2, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
This post is absurd. Yes, look at RCP. Hillary leads in 3 of the counts and Obama leads in 3 other counts.
If you count the votes as they were recorded, counting MI, FL, all caucus states plus 4 estimates for the caucus states, Hillary is ahead.
Hillary +193,00
If you add all the uncommitted votes from MI for Obama, Obama is ahead.
+44,667
The 4 remaining calculations are irrelevant, as MI and FL should be counted. The argument is about how to count MI.
Fact: The popular vote is extremely close. And does not reflect the mandate given to Obama by the party.
June 2, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. No one has a supermajority mandate. Let's not nominate anyone.
June 2, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not what I'm saying. I think you know that.
June 2, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fact: The "popular vote" is an erroneous measure of voter sentiment in the Democratic nomination. (See various explanations above)
Fact: The only legitimate and meaningful measure of voter sentiment in the Democratic nomination is the pledged delegate count, which Obama clearly leads 51.5% to 48.0%.
June 3, 2008 12:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
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