I've been keeping an eye on the Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator.  Sat down to pen my own today, using data outside Rasmussen, compensating for Rasmussen overweighting past experience (Colorado, Florida) which 2008 polling does not suggest will repeat precisely, and using some lessons of the spring.  So here's the Articleman Electoral College Calculator, with commentary, and inviting yours.

 
Safely Democratic (148):  Illinois (21), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), New York (31), Maryland (10), District of Columbia (3), California (55), Minnesota (10), Washington (11).  The first seven of these are utterly beyond reach.  California won't be as big as some of these, but it is no less certain.  Minnesota is polling with a bigger Obama advantage than the national trend, and bigger than recent election cycles.  McCain could run with Pawlenty and would lose Minnesota today.  Obama is running even further ahead of the national trend in Washington and far ahead of recent Democratic performances.  These are entirely safe.

Likely Democratic (62):  Connecticut (7), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Maine (4), Massachusetts (12), Oregon (7), Wisconsin (10), New Jersey (15),
 

These get more interesting, and are worth separate comment.
Connecticut could yield VP picks on either side, with Lieberman and Dodd.  Connecticut polls close enough that one could imagine Lieberman helping McCain, but I don't see it; Connecticut is supereducated and affluent, which is an Obama wheelhouse.  Rasmussen lists Rhode Island and Massachusetts as safe, but Obama's standing with white Democrats there was not where it should have been in early polling.  They will be wins but not by the margins Clinton or Edwards would have racked up, which is fine.  Maine has been reliable recently, though not by huge margins, and Obama spurred a great deal of enthusiasm there.  Delaware looks strong.  Oregon is polling closer than Washington, but is basically the same state electorally, with more downscale voters, marginally fewer white liberals, but enough to create the same result minus 5 points or so.  Wisconsin has been so close in recent elections that no one will rate it closer than leans Democratic, but Obama polled +14 there this week and has been ahead recently.  Wisconsin's leading Democrats are strongly behind Obama, and he performed very well in the primary, in which voters only selected which party to vote for when they filled out a unitary ballot.  Wisconsin borders Illinois, which has helped Obama this year.  It looks very likely from here.  New Jersey polls well for Obama.  Another state weaker in the primaries than one wished, but so what.  I'd worry the most about Connecticut among these, but put this group in the bank.


Leans Democratic (42):  Pennsylvania (21), Iowa (7), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5)
 
Pennsylvania has been polling well for Obama, even generally during the sturm-und-drang of April.  Its southeast is Obama country.  The economy in the rest of the state will hurt McCain.  Rendell and Casey deliver.  Iowa Republicans are despairing the lack of energy for McCain, who did not win the 08 GOP primary, and who has flouted ethanol orthodoxy in the past.  Borders Illinois, tilting bluer.  Kerry ran +2 off the national trend there already.  Book it.  Colorado keeps getting rated tossup, but there are many reasons that's dumb:  Obama has run ahead of McCain there all year, by varying margins, Obama won the caucus there very decisively with widescale participation, it's increasingly Latino (a group nationally with Obama 62-29 or so, as two polls indicate currently), there are enough leading Democrats with him in the state, and we're running a strong Senate campaign this year.  Colorado Dems are energized and an emerging majority.  New Mexico is the closest of this group, but the Udall Senate race, the support of Richardson, strong recent polling, and Obama's emerging success with Latino voters in relation to McCain make it a likely win.

Running Total Safely, Likely, Leaning Democratic:  252

Tossup (74, Democrats need 17 to win):  Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15)
 
Michigan is fascinating.  We keep winning it, but by less.  The Michigan primary fiasco, but also McCain saying the lost jobs aren't coming back.  If we win the above 252 electoral votes, Michigan alone can put us over the top, because we win a 269-269 tie by having a majority of state Congressional delegations.  Recent polling suggests we win it but not by much.  New Hampshire is increasingly upscale and urban, but is also historically fond of McCain.  Nevada was polling for Obama before Wright, is slightly proMcCain since then.  Richardson would help here.  Michigan seems to give us a razor's edge, New Hampshire and Nevada are true jump balls.
 
Ohio feels like a loss to me.  There are polls flipping either way.  Governor Strickland does not feel like more than a lip service supporter, and his support is important.  The state is too Appalachian, had cultural issues with Kerry, and has cultural issues with Obama.
 
I see Virginia helping put Obama over the top.  Unlike Ohio, most of the state's leading pols have been with Obama for a long time.  If Obama picks Webb, more so.  Kaine is important, but so was Obama's dispatch of organizer Mitch Stewart to head his effort there.  This state is increasingly upscale and receptive to Obama's appeal to Democratic-leaning independents.  Virginia is also a great example of a New South state where in primaries, Obama overperformed preprimary polls.  That is, the Bradley effect was not in evidence, and there appeared to be greater understatement of black votes in preprimary polls than there was overstatement of white support for Obama.  This was true in Virginia, both Carolinas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama.  But Virginia polls the best out of that group of states.  All Obama has to do is hold down losses in the rural and westernmost part of the state, and drive turnout in its east.  Look for Obama to win it by 2 points.
 
North Carolina is a similar analysis.  It's not as strong a state for Obama as Virginia.  However, with Barr running it appears in play.  Again, preprimary polls understated Obama's ability to drive the black vote to the polls, and understated his margin among black voters.  Obama's organizing among all groups, and this phenomenon, are probably worth about 3-4 points at the margins.  I see North Carolina staying around 5 in polls, and Obama's ground game driving it to jumpball status, though I think our chance of winning is one in three (but far better than the polling houses think it is).

Leans GOP (33):  Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Mississippi (6), North Dakota (3), Nebraska CDs 1 and 2 (1 each)
 
Indiana is often rated as likely or even safe GOP.  This is dumb.  Indiana suffers from some of the same economic issues that put Ohio in play.  It is adjacent to Illinois, and 20% of it is in the Chicago media market.  From Bloomington and northward, its counties in the primary season were not afflicted with Appalachian voting patterns as concerns Obama.  Obama polled close to McCain at the time of the primary and spent a great deal of time there.  Missouri has polled both ways, though the balance of polls have favored McCain.  The wildcard here is Claire McCaskill, who delivered Obama's only non gender-gapped performance against Clinton of which I'm aware.  Look it up, it's amazing.  Obama went 49-48 with both genders after she barnstormed the state for him.  She will again.  I see her as Presidential timber in eight years, but that's a different conversation.  Obama probably has to be +3  If-4 nationally to win Missouri.  Today he would.  Obama has polled within six in Mississippi.  If the GOP base is truly depressed in turnout, we have a chance.  In Mississippi, as in the rest of the South, polls understated Obama's strength.  If those polling dynamics hold in the general, if he's under 4 or so, he'll win.  Mississippi looks like a close loss.  Obama polled ahead in North Dakota shortly before Wright emerged.  Plouffe has mentioned it recently, I have a sneaking suspicion that we'll be putting resources there, and I have a gut that Obama could grab it.

I say we lose Indiana, have no idea about Missouri except that it will be close, one chance in five in Mississippi, one chance in four in North Dakota.  Best chance for a breakthrough is Nebraska Congressional District 1, where SurveyUSA shows Obama close to McCain, and some running mates put him ahead.  From here, looks like Obama/Webb would get us CD1, and likely CD2 as well.
 
Likely GOP (99):  Alaska (3), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Louisiana (9), Montana (3), Texas (34), South Carolina (8)
 
Obama has run -5 in Alaska in a pair of polls, and the Begich-Stevens race helps too.  Obama probably needs to run +10 nationally to have a chance here, is unlikely.  Florida is overrated.  It has not gone Democratic in the last two cycles.  Check the polls, it won't this year.  Or if it does, this one's over very early.  Money spent there is a headfake.  Georgia was a great primary state for Obama, but this is a state the Reverend Wright has hurt us in more than most.  Even Barr doesn't put it in play.  Louisiana is a ten point loss in the making.  Montana will be much closer than expected, but we probably can't overcome the 23 point thumping Bush put on Kerry.  Texas will be closer than expected, has polled at -5 once recently.  If Richardson is the VP nominee, could be extremely tight.  I see a loss of 8-10 otherwise.  South Carolina has polled tight, and black turnout will decide the margin, but it's not suffiiciently urban and progressive to get all the way there.  A five point loss.
 
Safely GOP (80):  Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), Arizona (10), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Nebraska CD3 and overall Nebraska vote total (3, two awarded for state total, one for each of NE's three Congressional Districts), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3). 
 
Rasmussen lists Arizona as likely GOP, which is stupid.  It won't be huge, but it is like California; run this election twenty times, all twenty come out the same way.  Kansas was a pipe dream for Democrats, and would remain so with Sebelius.  Obama showed down only eight in West Virginia, but there are too many white refuseniks on the Democratic side, and Obama's negatives there are in the fifties.  The rest merit no comment.  McCain can have them.
 
Safely, Likely, Leaning Republican:  212
 
There are many winning combinations on the board.  The initial 252 + Michigan.  That 252 + Virginia or North Carolina and New Hampshire (Webb).  252 + Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada (Richardson).  252 + Missouri, Nevada, and one district in Nebraska (Sebelius).  252 + Missouri, New Hampshire, CDs 1 and 2 in Nebraska (Sebelius).  Rasmussen's daily tracker, showing a 6-7 point lead daily for Obama since the primaries ended, suggests that Obama has the ability to get into the 300s.  This board has a great deal of opportunity, and too much vulnerable real estate for McCain to defend.