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Electoral College Map - Wizard
The Washington Post has a great and easy to use interactive Electoral College Map that you can use to model the General Election.
I've gone through several scenarios and each time I do I end up pushing Obama over 300 delegates (only 270 needed to win). Obviously I'm bias but if I start with the 2004 results and then play around with this years swing states it keeps coming out for Obama. I also started it with the "Swing States" model and selected the winners based on 2004 results with Bush win of less than 3 points I gave to Obama. As a professional analyst I of course admit that there was nothing scientific about my methods, just my guess/hope.
Dow anyone else have any interesting models using this tool that show something different?
Comments (23)
I even have a model in which McCain picks up both Florida and Ohio (I think Obama will win Ohio but I wanted to see) and I still have Obama winning 282 - 260 which is the closest race I have come out with.
June 17, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just tried it. It works great. I gave Obama every state and he won in a landslide.
June 17, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, now I really did fool around with it. Pretty amazing, actually. If you start with the 2004 results, all Obama needs is Iowa and one other state like Virginia, North Carolina, or Ohio, and it's in the bag.
June 17, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, no, no! You're being disrespectful of Hillary supporters again. Haven't you heard them telling you that Obama needs Hillary's voters in order to win? If you give McCain all the states that Hillary won then McCain wins in a landslide. So clearly he needs to pick her as his Veep. Or something like that.
On a related note, this analysis:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
is just as bogus as it was before, but now that it shows Obama beating McCain 317 to 221 the Hillary supporters don't seem to mention it nearly so often.
June 17, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I worked it out to 284-254 for President-elect Obama.
I really don't see him winning Florida and Virginia, but he will win almost all of the other toss-up states.
June 17, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pushing Virginia to Obama. Between the recent trending with Warner, Kaine, & Webb; the huge turnout for the dems (Obama) in the Primary; and Mark Warner up for the open Senate seat against a weak Republican I see this is as the year that VA goes blue.
It may be by a hair, but I really think it can happen this year.
June 17, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm giving him Virginia. I really think he'll win it. I also think he's got a very good shot at Ohio (which would be enough on its own if he takes the states Kerry won).
June 17, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an Obama supporter, I am worried about the increasingly likely scenario that McCain will pick Carly Fiorina -- passable Clinton clone/surrogate in terms of intelligence and wonking -- as his running mate. If 30-50% of hardcore Clinton voters voted for McCain because of Fiorina, how would that affect the numbers?
June 17, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
depends how you define "hardcore".
June 18, 2008 3:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
www.270towin.com is excellent, and even has maps for every single Presidential election in US History, so you can compare and contrast. It's a bigger map, too. Washington Post is alright, but...
June 17, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a great tool. Thanks! I keep coming out with Obama with at least 298 in the electoral college!
June 17, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing to keep in mind if it gets close: the Democrats control the House, so the real threshold is 269 EV.
June 17, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm...nevermind. Each state delegation gets one vote.
June 17, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the Dems control 27 State delegations to 21 for the Repugs (2 evenly split), so this time a tie in the EC goes to the Dems
June 17, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
By my count, Obama needs any ONE of MI, VA, or OH to win.
Based on overall polling trends I give Obama PA, NM, CO, IA, and McCain MO, FL, NC. NV can go either way without affecting the results.
June 17, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, I gave Obama all the Kerry states (-NH), plus Omaha NB (the 1 vote) NM, CO. He hits 270 right there.
Hot fucking damn as, I see that as worst case scenario for Obama.
June 17, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
My opinions of the way things are currently looking.
Safe States Obama: ME, VT, MA, CT, RI, DE, NY, NJ, MD, IL, MN, HI, WA, OR, CA, and DC (200 EV)
Safe States McCain: WV, KY, TN, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK (163 EV)
Swing States: NH, PA, OH, VA, NC, FL, MI, IN, WI, IA, MO, CO, NM, NV (175 EV)
On 270towin.com, IN is not a Swing State, and NJ is. My reasons for considering them as I do is that IN has polled extremely close (closer than Florida, for example, which is considered a swing state). Obama has even been ahead in a couple of polls. It is geographically near some other very strong Obama states. Historically, maybe it's not a swing state. But I fully consider it one at this time. NJ has consistently polled for Obama, and quite far ahead. I don't think it's a disputed state at all.
Here's how (based on current trends) I think it'll go:
McCain Swing States Won: FL, NC, IN, NH and NV (58 EV).
Obama Swing States Won: PA, VA, OH, MI, WI, IA, MO, CO, and NM (117 EV).
Final tally:
McCain: 225 EV
Obama: 313 EV
The thing is, I'm tempted to put NH and NC in Obama's column, and perhaps giving MO to McCain. But here, even if MO did go to McCain, Obama would still win. MI is another one I'm getting more unsure about, but again, even putting that in McCain's column leaves Obama with a decent-sized win.
Obama still squeaks by with a win if you subtract CO and NM (which I think will definitely go Obama). Things get ugly by subtracting (at this point) VA and/or OH.
As (I believe) has been pointed out, if Obama wins all the states Kerry did, and then IA, CO and NM, he wins the election with 273 EV.
I'm a little lazy at the moment, so if anyone wants to know why I put a SPECIFIC state in the column I did, I can explain it, But I don't feel like giving an in-depth explanation without being prompted to do so first.
I could later, however, post this as a blog post in and of itself with in-depth explanations... Perhaps...
June 17, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
ChronoSpark - Well done! I like your different scenarios and your explanations. I just don't see Obama doing worse in Kerry's states and I honestly think that the Dems are going to come out in full force so I think it very well could be a landslide.
June 18, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you!
There are only two states Kerry won that I think Obama will have any trouble with: Michigan and New Hampshire.
In my explanation above, I gave NH to McCain, but that could very well change. The state has been more left-leaning in recent years thanks in no small part, I think, to the influence of us here in VT. I reluctantly gave it to McCain because he seems to be popular there. Of course, recent trends dictate that Obama is doing better there than expected, so... That could change.
MI is a real toss-up. Obama's been doing better than McCain there, but not by much. Geographically Obama has the advantage. But it's really so close that it's hard for me to tell. I'm mostly going on the most recent Rasmussen polling, putting Obama ahead by a few points. Considering the fact that people said he would have trouble because of the primary debacle, if he's polling ahead at all right now it means he's in a very good position.
June 18, 2008 12:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Certainly a fair point on New Hampshire; but I have one word for you about Michigan.... DETROIT!
The polling companies aren't going to do the African American population of Detroit justice so we should expect to see Obama come in higher than expected there. Since it's currently a toss up, I give the advantage to Obama!
It's kind of like the Virginia primary, the pollsters knew that Obama had a lead here; but when the African American turnout was so strong it pushed his numbers way up and I expect to see the same thing in states like Michigan and maybe even Ohio!
June 18, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey guys using the 2004 results all I did was give Obama Ohio and he wins 272-266
June 18, 2008 2:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
My favorite combination is Kerry states, plus Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico. To hell with FL and OH!
However, folk from Ohio seem extremely cocky about it going to Obama.
For some real electoral college fun, check this joint out:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
June 18, 2008 3:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Permit me to plug my favorite map site of all time (and do explore to find them all):
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
June 18, 2008 4:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
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