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Election Tidbits (many culled from Democratic Underground)
(I) GE Presidential
(A) Obama "edict" requires Democratic National Committee to return $100,000;
(B) Nonobvious "firsts" for Obama as nominee;
(C) McCain (1) not 'maverick' in close Senate votes, (2) Opposition to Hurricane Catastrophe fund poses problems for McCain, (3) Neil Cavuto w/5 election tips for McCain;
(D) VP -- Edwards reportedly rules out #2 spot;
(E) Obama statements on (1) Gay Rights, (2) Climate change bill;
(F)Ridgeway in Mother Jones on Obama and RFK;
(G) Constituency analyses of Obama ... (1) and race in Wall Street Journal; (2) (a) and white working class in USA Today, and (b) Gephardt predicts Obama will win working class in Nov; (3) ... and, in LA Times (a) discussion of his polling among Latinos, & (b) Guy Rodriguez on latinos supporting blacks in elections; (4) "Clinton Dead Enders and Crisis in the Women's Movement" The New Republic;
(H) GE presidential election prospects (1) Obama continues to heavily lead among bettors for winner of GE; (2) Guy Saperstein projects Obama in GE by a blowout; (3) Rasmussen (a)WV: McCain 45, Obama 37; (b) NC: McCain 48, Obama 45; (4) Electoral-Vote.com projects for today: 287 EVs for Obama, and 58 Dem Sen seats; (5) CNN--Opinion Research Corp nat'l: Obama 47, McCain 43, Nader 6 ...
(II) Nonpresidential Elections:
(A) CA -- ballot measure for Constitutional Amendment requires only a simple majority, while any tax increase requires 2/3 supramajority;
(B) Al Franken faces election flaps in MN over past sex speech (previous Dem might jump back in)
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(I) Presidential GE
(A) Obama "Edict" for Democratic National Committee against acceptance of lobbyist money requires return of $100,000: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/07/obama-edict-requires-dnc-to-return-100000/
(B) Nonobvious Firsts for Obama as Democratic Nominee (Julianna Golman at Bloomberg.com): http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaUIIClmEfwA&refer=home
(C) McCain
(1) Not maverick on close senate votes: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0507mccainvotes0507.html
(2) Opposition to Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, or "Cat" Fund a potential major issue in FL http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/05/lieberman-launches-grassroots-organization/
and
(3) Neil Cavuto at Fox News offers five tips for McCain: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,364181,00.html (D) John Edwards reportedly rules out #2 spot on Obama ticket: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/06/europe/EU-GEN-Spain-US-Politics-Edwards.php (E) Obama statements on (1) Gay Rights: http://www.queerty.com/obamas-gay-promises-20080606/ (2) Climate Change Bill: http://thepage.time.com/obama-statement-on-climate-change-bill/ (F) James Ridgeway in Mother Jones: "Seeing Bobby Kennedy in Barack Obama" http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/columns/2008/06/barack-obama-rfk-bobby-kennedy.html(G) Commentary on Obama and Constituency Issues (1) Wall Street Journal (Jonathan Kaufman): "Race Issue Looms in Election With Sharp Divide in Some States" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121271038571350377.html (2) (a) "Obama Reaching Out to White Working Class" by Kathy Kiely in USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-06-05-Obama_N.htm (b) Christopher Stern (Bloomberg): "Gephardt Predicts Obama Will Win Working-Class Vote in November": http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080606/pl_bloomberg/ax9lrscsqihg
(3) (a) Analysis (Peter Wallsten) in LA Times of Obama's showing of enormous (eg 62% Obama t0 29%McCain) lead among latinos: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,5793717.story (b) LA Times' Guy Rodriguez in "Clinton's Latino Spin" analyzes track record of latinos voting for black politicians
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-rodriguez28jan28,0,1688217.column
(4) Michelle Goldberg in The New Republic "3AM for Feminism: Clinton Dead Enders and Crisis in the Women's Movement":
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=2c2ec3a8-e813-4d4e-b566-510e0f19eced
(H) Projection/Assessment of Voting Strength
(1) Obama leads heavily (over 60% odds) among bettors for winner in Nov GE:
http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true
and
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0430811720080605
(2) Guy Saperstein Project Obama Nov win by a blowout: http://www.alternet.org/election08/87225
(3) Rasmussen statewide polls
(a) West Virginia: McCain 45, Obama 37
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/west_virginia/election_2008_west_virginia_presidential_election
(b) North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 45
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php az=view_all&address=132x6309331
(4) (I may drop these soon): Electoral-Vote.com Obama winning electoral college (270 needed to win) w/ 287, Democrats w/58 senate seats (to current ~51-ish, depending on how you count):
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
(5) (Again, may drop these soon) CNN Opinion-Research Corp:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ijClHoidEl8XEJMJoUooHU1R_nmgD914PTMGA
(II) Nonpresidential Elections
(1) California Ballot Measures -- small tax increase requires 2/3 supramajority while Constitutional Amendment against gay marriage needs only simple majority:
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-broverman6-2008jun06,0,4046123.story
(2) Al Franken in Minnesota facing tough time for past sex speech, even nonpublic:
(a) CBS News analysis of flap over Franken's Playboy article:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/05/politics/politico/thecrypt/main4158343.shtml
(b) flap over NEVER AIRED SaturdayNightLive piece, Ciresi considers jumping back into MN Senate Election as Democrat:












Comments (2)
Wow! What thourough research! Kudos!
June 7, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for all your research and hard work. It is greatly appreciated. But, do you have top three 'must reads' in this you'd advise? Hope so.
June 7, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
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