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A Hispanic problem?


Much was made during the primary of Clinton's regular lead over Obama among Hispanic voters in large swing states.  Given that McCain is one of the few Republicans not to run on  a platform of explicit xenophobia, it was therefore put forward that McCain's appeal to Hispanics combined with Obama's (putative) lack of appeal among Hispanics could amount to a real problem for Obama in the GE.  So, today's NBC/WSJ poll offers the first real post-primary look at that question and what do they find?  Obama leads McCain among Hispanic voters 62% to 28%.  That is to say, Obama is winning this demographic by more than 2 to 1.

He is also winning women voters 52 to 33, Catholic voters 47 to 40 and blue collar voters 47 to 42.  In other words, all of those supposedly problematic demographics are coming together behind him.  For all of the hand-wringing ballyhoo, it seems that the fact that certain democrats would not vote for Obama in the primary did not imply that they likewise would not vote for him in the GE.  Just thought that you might like to know that...

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For what little it is worth, the poll also found African American voters going for Obama 83 to 7. White men appear to be going for McCain 55 to 35, while Obama wins white women overall (46 to 39) but loses white suburban women to McCain 44 to 38.

Interestingly, when asked about running mates, 22% said that they would be more likely to vote for Obama if Clinton was his running mate, but 21% said that they would be less likely to vote for him with Clinton as his running mate. Draw your own inferences as you will...

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What about the Scots?

I heard somewhere that Obama had recovered with older white women: that they preferred him to McCain.

There are several things that are about all this (if one should take any notice of polling at this stage which is debatable):

His bounce following the withdrawal of Clinton is much less than has historically been the case.

His low polling with white men. What unnerves me about this is that historically men have voted in greater number than women in the general. (Whereas women vote more in the primaries)

What's really bugging me now, though, is the politics going on with Hispanic Clintonites agitating on the Hill as though Obama can't survive without them.

They haven't read these polls that have been holding up for a good time now.

Check out what they're doing - it's really the pits.

`Hispanic Dems warn Obama he risks losing Latinos`
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/hispanic-dems-warn-obama-he-risks-losing-latino-voters-2008-06-11.html

This hispanic (I can't stand that word) problem has been bullshit from jump. I know hardly any Latinos still hanging with the Republicans. They've shit all over us the past years. I think that number could actually grow.

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Rec'd. Nice to see someone from one of those problematic demographics showin' up with some reassuring stats.

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