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Why the Superdelegates WILL Weigh In June 4th
They've waited, watching Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama battle through the last remaining states. But I have a feeling they are not amused.
The superdelegates understand that Clinton has fought a losing game for some time, that she has moved the goal posts repeatedly to reset the clock, that she has needlessly divided the party to the breaking point. Most of all, they understand that where she has won, she has won among those more susceptible to the implicit racism of her electability argument.
That is why they will weigh in en masse on June 4th.
In Kentucky, the 21 percent of voters who said race was a factor in their decision went for Clinton by 81-16 percent. A Chicago Tribune story this morning explained the situation in small Munfordville, Ky., this way:
"Right now it's not that Hillary attracts the white vote," said Jack Bunnell, 79. "It's that Obama's black."
It's a notion Clinton's campaign has been subtly pushing, claiming that
only she can secure a Democratic vote in many large, predominantly
white expanses of America — particularly in states like Ohio,
Pennsylvania and West Virginia, potential keys to the fall election.
But it wasn't just race that led to Clinton's blowout win in Kentucky tonight. Of the 16 percent in exit polls who cited gender as an important consideration, 79 percent voted for Clinton. Education, income and city vs rural all played some role, as well, though to a smaller degree.
Have I mentioned? the superdelegates are NOT amused. To explain more fully:
They will not overturn the pledged delegates Superdelegates know that Clinton long ago lost the pledged delegates, and they will not dare to split blacks, the most loyal of any Democratic constituency, from the party base by overturning those pledged delegates.
They watched Hillary slice and dice voters
Clinton made a strategic decision to contest the nomination beyond any reasonable odds of winning. To keep the supers from weighing in early and ending it, she made a Hail Mary pass. She argued that those calling for her to quit were sexist, an argument that peeled off more women voters from Obama. She argued that she was more masculine and peeled off good ol' boys who were always concerned anyway by what a black guy with balls might do with their wives. The she appealed right out loud to "hard-working, white Americans" and, sure enough, won over more of the same.
They watched her split the party
While Hillary was slicing and dicing, something else was happening, too. Her supporters were becoming more and more polarized, threatening in ever greater numbers to thwart Obama in the general election.
They would have stepped in by now, but...
They couldn't stop her. If they had tried to intervene for Obama, the Clinton supporters would cry foul and defect for good, with no hope for party unity. And the perception, driven by Hillary, that superdelegates were interfering with the will of the people, would have pushed the protest vote for Hillary in the remaining primaries to catastrophically embarrassing margins for Obama in places just such as Kentucky.
They. Are. Not. Amused.
They will deliver the coup de grace with a terrible swift sword on June 4th. They are not about to let her circus continue. She has thrown kerosene into the big tent. They are not amused.
Comments (37)
You seem very sure of this. Do you have a direct line to them?
Whatever, I hope you're right. I felt sick tonight watching all the commentary.
I have a new hero: David Gergen. In response to the exit polling about the racist vote in Kentucky, his response was that Hillary's staying in is doing grave damage to Obama; his view was that, as someone who has always been at the forefront of the civil rights movement, Hillary should step up and say to all those people who voted for her on this basis "I don't want your vote."
My goodness if she did this she'd end up one of the great legends of American Democratic history.
Instead she's keeping the superdelegates at bay by saying all the voters should be able to register their say and promising to lay off Obama. But what she's doing now is just as damaging: she's inciting a women's backlash against sexism and using Michigan and Florida as the rationale.
What's happening now is the pits.
Is she actually trying to incite a strong enough movement to keep this going to the convention?
May 21, 2008 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have no direct line, but I've been trying to understand why the supers haven't weighed in so far. The only reason that makes sense is that the more they are perceived as rushing to Obama, the greater the backlash would be. I think they'll wait until all the voters have their say, then pull the plug.
May 21, 2008 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
BTW I didn't mean that `hot line` question sarcastically. I thought maybe you did have great connections. I'm sorry if it came over unpleasantly.
May 21, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not at all. No problem.
May 21, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The longer she stays in, the more hardened her supporters become. It's simply not good for the party by any measure.
As her tactics have increased her support amongst these voters, so has the complicit silence of the superdelegates. In essence, by not taking a stand against this vision of the Democratic party, they are tacitly approving of her memes. This is the real danger I see for this party. At any point, going back to Obama's speech on race, this party should have stood up for basic Democratic party ideals. They have not. "hard working white Americans" should have sent them over to Obama in droves. The signal would have been that the Democratic party does not stand for this kind of race-baiting. But they did not. And they are therefore complicit in this dangerous rift in the party.
I understand the logic of this post. Maybe it will play out as you propose. But the opposite is as likely to be true: the superdelegates have sent a message that Hillary is telling the truth about the party as a whole, and that the encitement of these darker aspects of the party are approved of by them. Hillary Clinton took the gloves off a level of decency we have a right to expect from our party. And the party leaders have contributed to it.
And Obama still does well. Imagine what he could do with the support of the party.
May 21, 2008 8:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is why I've seriously considering becoming independent. I no longer trust the Party. They should have ended this long ago.
May 21, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't have to trust the Party, but don't leave it! Democrats need the help of rational people like you and me and other independent minded folks.
May 21, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yes, Fran, I DO think Hillary has consciously been tearing the party apart for her own ends. It's one thing to appeal to voter constituencies on the basis of policies that affect their lives. It's quite another to appeal to women to help you out with lines like "Until we have a nominee, whoever she may be." I've never seen Obama parse the electorate so blatantly. It's as if Hillary is asking her girlfriends over for a pajama party. Her appeals to other elements of the Democratic base, including racists, have been just as shameless and direct. I can't imagine the party leaders being anything but appalled and enraged by her reckless manipulation of the Democratic coalition.
May 21, 2008 1:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
One last note on this. The same as above applies to her whipping up resentment among Florida and Michigan voters. If the outcomes there and the candidates roles were both reversed, she and Bill would explode in Tourette's-like outbursts of sustained profanity at any attempt to incite voters there against her.
I'd vote for her over McCain, but I could never wash the hand that voted for enough.
May 21, 2008 1:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
sigh. Yes. She's the Democratic Party's Rove all right.
Once I'd thought this thing was all sewn up I tried to give her the benefit of the doubt.
Now I realise she really is ruthless.
May 21, 2008 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
check this out.
Patrick Healey. NYT.
`Clinton sees many reasons to stay in`
Mrs. Clinton also wants to increase her popular vote total in the final three primaries in hopes that if a small margin separates her and Mr. Obama, it may be enough to sway some uncommitted superdelegates to support her at the last minute.
“Superdelegates who are committed to her are telling her to stay the course,” said Harold Ickes, a senior adviser to Mrs. Clinton. “And there are some uncommitted superdelegates who are for her but not ready to come out — and they want her to stay the course and see this through.”
Mr. Ickes added, “And there are other uncommitted superdelegates who want to wait until June to judge the strongest candidate.”
(It's a reasonably balanced article - shows some people who are her supporters telling her to get out)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/us/politics/21clinton.html?hp
May 21, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
If the supers have to drive a stake through her candidacy's heart to force her out, they will. Being a fighter is one thing. Being a megalomaniac is another.
May 21, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well I hope he stops believing he has this thing and goes to Montana and SD and really works them hard.
BTW have you seen Chuck Hagel's enormous defense of Obama and attack on McCain? It's wonderful stuff - over at Huffington
May 21, 2008 1:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I read that. Great stuff.
May 21, 2008 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting suppositions! We'll all have to wait and see.
May 21, 2008 3:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, some hours later, I've been somewhat encouraged watching Candy Crowley saying on CNN that Hillary is just enjoying her moment in the sun as it were and playing out the primaries - does accept that Obama's probably won it.
She (Crowley) doesn't envisage it going to the convention - having canvassed the Washington insiders, says the SD's are just waiting for the end of the primaries to endorse the candidate with the most pledged delegates.
It's just - the Clintons aren't normal! Let's face it, a normal person caught lying on the stand would feel they had to step down.
One just *feels* it - that they don't follow the norms of acceptable behaviour. So one keeps waiting for the next horror scene in the endless Clinton psychodrama....
May 21, 2008 7:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've little doubt that you will get much agreement and pats on the back from 90% of the posters here. Yet poll after poll have shown that a majority of the people many times more than 60% believe the race should continue and Hillary should not drop out. Consider the possibility that the supers are more in like with the majority of the public and view things similar to them and the posters here are the anomaly.
May 21, 2008 8:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which is exactly why, as Ripper points out, the superdelegates are waiting until June 4th, when the race is over, before they declare for Obama en masse. They want to let the people's voices be heard. Then they will support the candidate who has won a majority of pledged delegates, a majority of states, and a majority of the popular vote.
May 21, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. Those pesky voters again stand in the way.
If it wasn't for 17 million of such voters, they'd have Clinton quartered by now.
To think that I'm the member of a party that obliterated two states makes me pause and think and re-evaluate what's more important for me.
May 21, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's plausible, but I think it's probably just one of many, many reasons that the Super Delegates have not weighed in yet.
It's not that I want Hillary to finish the primary, it's just that, at this point, it doesn't matter. Obama's got the nomination in the bag, and Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota aren't going to change that.
I would say that a lot of them simply just want the race to end on a note that can make Hillary bow out gracefully. She wouldn't do it now. She's gonna go out kicking and screaming. But if she's finished the primary race, the delegates are counted, etc., then she'll be in a corner with nowhere left to go. She's continually said that she wants every American to have a voice (which, for her, means continuing til the end of the primary race), so imagine how she'd react if they didn't give it to her?
I think she'd whine and complain for months, and we'd never hear the end of it. It would do nothing except damage the party even more, and make things more difficult in November. I think this may be a component of it.
May 21, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the majority of people want the race to continue, including Obama supporters for good reasons. Even though, inappropriately accused, Obama doesn't want to appear that he is pushing HRC out. Secondly, a lost such as the one he weathered in WV and then again in KY would have been worse if HRC had already dropped out. The damage is already done, so let her crawl to the finish line. She already broke one of Obama's legs and he is still sprinting to the finish with and without the SDs help. In a way that is a more rewarding win for Obama. Like one of the other posters noted, I truly believe that the SDs are letting HRC get aways with these divisive tactics because deep down inside they harbor the same deep-seated resentment for Obama. At the very least, we now know that the Dem party is not all it is cracked up to be. I hope all affected take cue from this and stop casting their support overwhelming to the Dems in the future. I am now very uncomfortable with the Democratic label.
I don't think it's fair to equate asking HRC and company to denounce and/or curb her appetite for racist votes and encouraging women to lash out against Obama to quitting. She can and should continue to campaign, but I expected better of her. That gloating over racist votes and that gloating over women threatening to vote against Obama in the fall is unacceptable. Yes, the SD's and the Dem talking heads agree with HRC IMO.
Regardless of all of this, Obama is still winning b/c we the voters have made it possible for him to win.
May 21, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only issue is that she will not bow out gracefully. It really is about for her gaining as much power as she can, so that she can try to get whatever she wants.
She had many opportunities to bow out, but with her speech of last night and the comments made by her campaign director, we know now that they will fight to the end.
The sad part is that the SDs delegates and the party allow her to change the rules as she pleases.
According to the Clinton campaign, the latest is the "2027" pledge delegates is irrelevant. What matters are CA, PA, OH, NY, FL, MI, MA. The other states don't count, the caucuses don't count. The popular vote matters, and the irony is that they say Senator Obama got 0 votes in Michigan, therefore I won the popular vote. This is so absurd.
And I have said for a long time, the SDs are responsible for the fact the party is divided. They created this mess. Yes Obama will win the nomination, but the SDs should have seen this coming after shs did loss 11 primaries in a row.
They should have intervene when she did throw him under the bus when she said she and McCain had the experience, they should have intervene when she ran the Texas add with the 3 AM call.
Now, we have reached May 22nd, Senator Obama has won the pledge delegates battle, and so far only one SD endorsed senator Obama...
It is quite amazing and not in a good way!
May 21, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone pointed out that, by not declaring themselves -- in big numbers, at timely moments -- the SDs are, in effect, condoning the racism and sexism divisions in the party spawned by HRC's campaign tactics. I hoped that there were those who were just holding back to back Obama in a real emergency. But if not now, before the FL/MI delegate meeting on the 31st, then when? After that, their votes are almost irrelevant in terms of standing on principle. As of June 1st, the remaining undeclared SDs are apparently only those who want to play to the winning side and/or not offend the Clintons.
Is there anything that can be done about that?
May 21, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you read all the comments on Ripper's post he & they will explain what's going on. Hillary's people can't be pushed, we need everyone in Nov. After the last vote, the supers go to Obama in mass. Being patient with anyone who has pushed us all to the brink like she has is not easy, but winning is our goal & this does give us a much better chance to achieve that goal.
Someone said the Clinton's are not ordinary people, they are like a steel wall, unmovable, not many will argue with that. After June 3rd our candidate will have taken them on & won. That is what we need to concentrate on. Patience is still a great virtue. Turn the bloviators off.
May 21, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
With the exception of Pelosi and Reid (I can understand their public neutrality.) I think the remaining Supers are spineless wind watchers. Obama has now won the plurality of elected delegates. The Supers should back what the voters have done and end this so we can enter the GE and take on McCain. Supers are supposed to have leadership. The remaining are nothing but fearful sheep.
May 21, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry but her staying in has severely damaged the Democratic electorate, and also Obama. The more she divides, the worse off Obama's chances in the Fall. I believe it's her "Give me the VP or it's 2012" Plan B unfolding here.
May 21, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
As was pointed out last night by one pundit, HRC does wield some power right now - 17m votes is nothing to sneeze at. Power to negotiate whatever it is that she thinks she wants in lieu of the Nomination, be it VP, Reid's spot, or Cabinet slot. But there is a limited window of opportunity and everyone, including the SD's know it. So part of the problem is, if one is sympathetic to the Clinton's, but plan to support Obama because he will win, then when do you commit?! Do it too early and it effectively slams the window shut on HRC's opportunity so the SD would chop HRC off at the knees; do it too late and they still garner the wrath of the Clinton's but gain zero cred from the new BMOC.
It seems that the SD's are taking Hillary at her word that she will support the Nominee, regardless of who HE may be, once the primaries have all been held.
And Barack just has to let her have her fun for a couple more weeks to have a chance at capturing her supporters (minus the Appalachian bigot demographic) with or without her help.
May 21, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the supdelegate endorsements for Obama are going to slack up a bit, becasue he only needs 23 or so to get over 2025. The problem is without resolution to FL and MI, it has the effect of disenfranchising them. The smart play for Obama it to let the primararies run the course. When the DNC meets on 5/31 the proposals will be specific. HRC will not settle for a fair split, and this will casue a melt down that will give Obama a boost in FL as votters there will know the real score. The superdelegates won't be happy either and then it will be over.
May 21, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right, Ripper! Good analysis.
One rationale the Clinton campaign has used to stay in the race has been that there's something wrong with Obama (theoretically, his lack of experience but oh so much more can be implied). Rather than admit she's lost to a good contender, HRC encourages mistrust of the candidate. The situation is so serious, she implies, the superdels will need to rectify it!
Unfortunately for her, there's nothing to base this suspicion on except racism and/or misplaced "feminist" disgruntlement. Luckily for Obama, he looks quite good as a candidate from a variety of perspectives including the coat tails, which shoudl appeal to many of these superdels.
May 21, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Super Delegates better way in before May 31st and save the party another tragedy. If Obama comes up to the rules committee meeting with the winning number of 2026, by the rules, up until that meeting, he has a much stronger case. The DNC and the Supers better get it straight---She doesn't care what she destroys. Vidal Gore said recently in the London
Times that she's lost her mind and gone crazy during this fight. She's sure acting like it today with her renewed threats to take it to the convention. Traditionally, that's pretty much a sure lose to the republicans in the fall. Thanks for another threat Hill. If you cost the democrats the presidency in a shoe in year, you will become infamous. You will have also done more harm to the feminist movement than any woman in American history. You have become such a disappointment to this 57 year old white woman.
May 21, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
"They will deliver the coup de grace with a terrible swift sword on June 4th." I think you're investing an awful lot of emotion in this. Hope there's some left over for McCain.
May 21, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting comment there Otto. We'd have a lot more emotion to spare if HRC would stop stirring up shit in a race she long ago lost.
May 21, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rachel Maddow just called the next 9 DAYS the "DEMOCRATIC SUICIDE DEATH WATCH." If HRC fights to the convention, we're in trouble. But if Obama can pull 90 Superdelegates to his side in the next 9 days, he could end this thing. Seems like a tall order, but I'm wondering what Barack can work out.
If he concedes MI & FLA to her, I wonder what sinister plan she has next in line?
May 21, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is a clueless TV pundit who claims she knows what she's talking about. And you obviously believe every word that drops out of her pretty mouth.
That remark excludes Keith Olbermann, who is an official American Idol of TPM.
May 21, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the superdelegates aren't endorsing for two main reasons. First, some of them want to see all the states vote. (That's the case for Deb over at the Field, for example.) Second, many of them would probably prefer not to have to take sides; in other words, they're hoping Clinton will bow out on her own after the last primary.
I think there's a good chance that they're right, and she will actually quit, thus sparing a lot of people an uncomfortable political decision.
May 21, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Having worked so hard to split blacks from brown, and low income whites from educated and young ones, Clinton is now doing all she can to p*ss off voters in Florida and Michigan. Come on, no normal person gives a damn about delegates and conventions, but she goes down there and tells them the party is treating them like slaves, and Obama is the man holding the whip? Won't that make it impossible for him to carry that state?
She says she wants a Democrat to win in November, but her every action shows she only cares about herself. Maybe she just does not consider the damage she does to the man who has already beaten her soundly playing by the rules. Or maybe she does.
I now think her final plea will be to declare that, after the mess she left for Obama in Florida and Appalachia, he has no chance so they have to nominate her. And if that happens, she'll still lose Ky and WVa to Bush III, after Republicans unleash all the stuff they've been storing up on her for 16 years. Plus, betrayed blacks will refuse to vote for her. When Blacks in Detroit stay home, Michigan goes red. When Blacks don't vote in Cleveland and Cinncinatti, Dems lose Ohio. KC and ST Louis will cost them Missouri, Philly and Pittsburgh will cost them Pennsylvania and then its over. And this will screw up the hopes for dozens of governor and congressional candidates counting on the increased turnout. The war will go on and lobby types will continue to rule the nation.
Hillary will be personally responsible for turning Democratic joy into disaster. She is, without doubt, the most selfish politician of our time.
May 21, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent comment all the way around.
May 21, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
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