One of the most formidable number crunchers over at Daily Kos is PsiFighter37. His district by district analysis is now up and he gives the breakdown for each WV congressional district, as well as the best- and worst-case scenarios for Obama tomorrow. There are plenty of maps and graphics, so make sure you check out the link.

Best-case scenario for Obama
Simply put, Obama has to outperform by a healthy margin to narrow the delegate loss he faces in the state. However, if he is able to perform better-than-expected in WV-02 to earn a 3-3 split (similar to how NC-11 turned out) and can get more than 25% in WV-03 to only lose 2 delegates, he will pick up 2 more delegates. Additionally, if the activist base really turns out and boosts Obama above 35.6% of the vote, he will net an extra at-large delegate. This would lead to Obama only netting a loss of 6 delegates, 17-11

Worst-case scenario for Obama
It's hard to do worse than I've already projected, but WV-01 could possibly go to Clinton for a 5-1 split if she breaks 75%. She will probably get within 5% - I can see her scoring in the low-70% range easily - but if she couldn't do it on a consistent basis in the bordering counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania, I don't see it happening here. That's really the only area of improvement I see, and that would lead to a 21-7 delegate split in favor of Clinton. As I noted above, netting an extra at-large delegate with more than 78.57% of the vote is extremely likely. One has to consider that Obama's polling - which puts him somewhere in the mid- to high-20% range - is his floor. If his supporters in West Virginia stuck with him through the tough times he faced the past few weeks, I can't see him losing support at the polls.

So according to PsiFighter37's breakdown (and he has been spot-on in his analysis this election), Obama is looking at 17-11 split with a 6 delegate loss under the best conditions, or 21-7 split with a 14 delegate loss under the worst conditions tomorrow.

Considering that Obama has picked up 25 delegates in the past week, even a 14 delegate loss tomorrow  isn't going to hurt his numbers much. The media spin cycle will no doubt be negative, but by the time we get to Oregon, this will all be forgotten anyway.

Go Obama!