Now that Obama has effectively won the nomination attention will be paid to his choice for VP. It is important to realize, in making this choice, what the significance of this selection is and isn't.

Although Dick Cheney has created the impression that a VP will wield enormous power the reality is his tenure has been an anomaly rooted in the ignorance and indifference of  his boss. Cheney has amassed unprecedented influence, but Obama's VP will do what Obama wants not the other way around. Neverthless, Cheney's activites have cast a shadow and there's reason to believe that the media and perhaps the electorate will make a VP choice slightly  more significant than in the past when at best it added 2 percent to the presidential candidate's totals.

The role of the VP is undefined, except for breaking ties in the Senate and succeeding the President if the latter should become disabled or dies. Obama's VP will vote in the Senate as Obama would wish so any VP's views on policies are irrelevant. Should something happen to Obama obviously the VP's political views are critical, but, as this is a very low-probability event, this should not be overemphasized in the selection process, except that the VP should have qualities of leadership and competence and a general fit with the President's views on the most pressing topics of the day.

In choosing a VP candidate Obama must focus on choosing someone who compensates for his perceived demographic weaknesses as well as the best antidote to the swiftboating to come. By this criteria, what Obama needs most is a VP with acknowledged foreign policy-national security bonafides who is a white male. 

Obama does not need a female VP to prevent women from deserting to McCain because McCain as an opponent of legalized abortion and someone who voted against CHIP will not attract women to his side. Simply hammering  his voting record vs. Obama's on issues women (not only women, of course) are most apt to care about will do the job.
 
Obama also does not need an hispanic VP candidate because Democrats will capture non-Cuban hispanics in large numbers because of the Republican's anti-immigrant rhetoric which has offset the social appeals to many hispanics on issues such as abortion and gay marriage. On economic issues, which will be paramount, hispanics are overwhelmingly  for Democrats.

McCain has awful anti-worker economic stances and has a mixed record on immigration. His campaign won't want to emphasize the immigration issue because if he tips towards pro-immigration views to court hispanics he will alienate the xenophobic base that must turn out in large numbers for him.

McCain also cannot risk making the social conservative appeals because he is trolling for independent votes. Moreover, most Americans do not favor making abortion illegal and now seem to favor either gay marriage OR legal unions as compared to opposing both.

McCain's pereceived strength is with those for whom national security and the war on terror are paramount and white male  social conservatives.

The blue collar sub-set of this demographic can be peeled away. Obama can push a pro-working class economic agenda and must do so, but he can best offset McCain's perceived national security advantage AND undercut future swiftboating claims that he isn't a patriot by chosing as VP  Jim Webb or Wesley Clark. Webb was Sec of the Navy under Reagan, a wounded Vietnam Marine officer and has the macho swagger to bludgeon anyone who tries to undercut Obama. He'll be a figher on the campaign trail.

Webb has a son in Iraq and is a harsh opponent of the war. He loves the military, which he believes is being destroyed by Iraq and is a supporter, which McCain is not, of the New GI Bill. This alone will put McCain on the defensive.

Webb has some liabilities. First, he once believed women shouldn't be combat soldiers, but McCain's base probably doesn't either and Webb has reportedly changed his views on this. Second, he opposed Bush's immigration bill, not for xenophobic reasons, but to protect working class jobs. He will need to make the argument that he will have a different view when employers don't use illegals to undercut wages of native workers. In any case, McCain can't attack him for this without losing his own base and so will be quiet.

The other option for Obama would be to go with Wesley Clark, who had a huge military resume and is liberal on economic and social issues. Clark has fewer liabilities than Webb in terms of a voting record, but he doesn't have the macho demeaner that will command attention from white working class males and perception is reality when it comes to voting. he fizzled as a candidate for President in 2004 when I hoped he was going to be the strrongest one against Bush.

Finally, even though I believe Colin Powell belongs in the dock along with the other war criminals in the Bush Administration---as an enabler of  policies he opposed---the American people still respect him a great deal and Obama might consider saying in advance of the campaign he would ask Powell to be Sec of Defense or State. I'll hold my nose if this helps Obama win...and there is no substitute for winning.