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We need to win one more state. Which one'll it be?
We lost the last two elections by one state. Which one can we win this year?
Close Losses
Ohio (big one last time)
Nevada (we will need two small states)
New Mexico (Richardson for VP)
Iowa (a real possiblity)
Florida (close in 00, not so in 04 and probably out of play this year)
Must Hold On to:
Pennsylvania (lose this and we can't win)
Michigan (lose this and we can't win)
Wisconsin (moderately instead of acutely critical)
Minnesota (moderately instead of acutely critical)
New Hampshire (pick up an Ohio and this one won't matter as much)
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Comments (7)
You can relax about Michigan. John McCain just went there and talked about of all things child pornography and human trafficking. Definitely out of touch. I'm sure they're great topics but not exactly something that's going to win votes in the economically hard hit Michigan. Here's to McCain misreading more states.
May 9, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's called "doin' the math" and it don't look so good at the moment.
May 9, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are you talking about???
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
As of this moment, in the heat of a battle between Dems when we're airing our dirty laundry and McCain is getting a free ride, the race is basically tied.
According to the CURRENT polls, Obama needs to pick up OH (possible), MO (possible), FL (possible with right VP (see below)), VA (possible), NC (possible).
Any ONE of them turns the electoral math to Obama's favor. Personally, I think Obama wins them all.
May 9, 2008 11:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are you talking about???
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
As of this moment, in the heat of a battle between Dems when we're airing our dirty laundry and McCain is getting a free ride, the race is basically tied.
According to the CURRENT polls, Obama needs to pick up OH (possible), MO (possible), FL (possible with right VP (see below)), VA (possible), NC (possible).
Any ONE of them turns the electoral math to Obama's favor. Personally, I think Obama wins them all.
May 9, 2008 11:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Easy.
Former Gov. / Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL) for VP.
Florida in the D column.
Save a glass of champagne at the innaugral for me.
May 9, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs a VP pick that appeals to the blue collar, working class - the common thread in the states you list at risk (Hillary wasn't wrong about that - the rust belt IS key). That's why I think Jim Webb is THE pick. He'll play well in those states you note at risk exactly because he appeals to those working class guys that McCain also (inexplicably) appeals to. That's also the big factor in Ohio.
If you can retain all the states Kerry held in 2004, 18 more electoral college votes is all that's needed. Ohio or Missouri/Iowa or a Nevada/NM/Colo. combo are likely the best bets. Obama is a much more appealing candidate than Kerry, but McCain is also much more appealing to the blue collar than Bush and his war was in 2004.
I think Obama himself will play better out West than Kerry did, but a VP selection with appeal to the white working class should seal the deal out there. Webb also puts Virginia in play, although that might be a long shot.
I think Dick Gephardt is also a good pick for VP. He would likely swing Missouri and combined with Obama should also close Iowa. His long pro-union, anti-NAFTA stance should play well throughout the "rust-belt". He also adds formidable experience to the ticket and would be a definite asset in guiding Obama's agenda through a highly favourable congress.
My $.02
May 10, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Counting pennies will not win the election. This one should be a blow out. Aim for 50, accept 45.
May 10, 2008 1:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
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