« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Vice Presidential Profiles: Tim Kaine (Gov-VA) and Wes Clark
Cross-posted from The Left Anchor.
These are our fourth and fifth entries in our week-long series profiling the most likely vice presidential candidates. We've previously looked at Sen. Jim Webb, Gov. Ted Strickland, and Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.
First, we look at Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia, another likely candidate for Obama's short list. Gov. Kaine was one of the first Democrats outside of Illinois to endorse Barack Obama during the earliest days of his candidacy. Kaine was first elected governor in 2005, by a very narrow margin, and his term is set to expire in 2010. Kaine's prospects beyond then are dim; Virginia law prevents Kaine from serving consecutive terms, and Sen. Jim Webb's seat cannot be challenged until 2012, as for Virginia’s other Senate seat, it seems quite likely that Democrat Mark Warner will take over Republican Sen. John Warner's seat this November. These factors likely make Kaine very open to the possibility of a vice presidential nomination. An immediate problem with selecting Kaine is that it would put Virginia's Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican, in the governor's mansion, providing him with a leg-up in the 2009 gubernatorial race.
That concern aside, Tim Kaine brings a lot to the table. He is governor of a state with 13 electoral votes that has been trending blue the last few election cycles. Bush took the state in 2004 by just 8 points, and had Kerry not pulled out of the state early, it may very well have been even closer. Mark Warner was an extraordinarily popular Democratic governor, and Kaine followed on his heels, surviving a very hard fought election. Despite working with a Republican controlled General Assembly for the first half of his term, Gov. Kaine was able to produce bipartisan compromises, demonstrating his effectiveness at forging coalitions to achieve victory. Gov. Kaine also handled the Virginia Tech massacre amazingly well and worked very hard on providing the families with a generous settlement despite the fact that the Commonwealth was unlikely to ever be found liable for the events of that tragic day. This shows a strong commitment to social justice from which other politicians could learn a great deal.
Kaine is also known as a tireless campaigner. He beat the drum for Jim Webb in 2006, and ruffled more than a few Republican feathers in the process. I've seen him give speeches and C-SPAN and rarely have I been so fired up by a politician. This bulldog quality is an essential for an effective vice president.
Looking at the hard numbers, Gov. Kaine currently holds an approval rating of 57% according to an April, 2008 SUSA poll. These numbers are spread across a broad coalition of voters. Kaine’s support stays above 50% in nearly every demographic, but reaches 63% among voters over 65 (a demographic which has thus far largely eluded Obama). He also wins over 67% of moderates, and even gains the approval of 42% of conservatives. Moreover, Kaine fares strongly among whites, Hispanics and African Americans (58% – 55% - 54%, respectively). This broad range of support makes him a compelling choice for vice president. His popularity among moderates, and reasonable standing among conservative voters, could assist him in expanding Obama's base in November, and might place Virginia in the Democratic column.
Despite his demographic strengths and overall popularity, Kaine does
have some weaknesses. He is a strong opponent of the death penalty,
which proved to be a major issue in the gubernatorial election.
Seventy-six percent of Virginians support the death penalty
(see question 32), which is a full ten points higher than the national
average. Despite his
opposition to the death penalty, Gov. Kaine has allowed four executions
to proceed while governor. He has not pardoned anyone, but he has
delayed executions in order to let appeals be completed, and, more
recently, to wait for the Supreme Court to rule on Baze v. Rees.
Kaine has also vetoed attempts to expand the number of crimes eligible
for the death penalty. And while these measures should be applauded,
it should go without saying that the Republicans will likely use this
in the fall in order to paint Kaine, and more broadly, the Democratic
ticket as soft on crime. Given the levels of support for the death
penalty nationwide, as well as the even higher levels of support for
capital punishment in Gov. Kaine’s home state,
the Republicans are likely to use this issue to chip away at Kaine’s
support.
Another point of attack the Republicans will use against Kaine is likely to be the Governor’s stance on gun control. He has supported more restrictions on gun show sales and on concealed weapons, especially since the Virginia Tech massacre. There can be no doubt that the Republicans will do their best to raise this as an issue. However, such attempts might be misguided given the context in which they're presented; the mass killing at Virginia Tech will not lend itself easily to political manipulation.
Kaine also has a big weakness with the left as he is opposed to abortion. Kaine supports the partial-birth abortion ban and has a faith-based objection to abortion; Kaine is Catholic. This will certainly make him unacceptable to many Democrats, especially given the strong Hillary Clinton support that still remains among women in the Party. Kaine's weakness on women's rights might not go over so well among a group of supporters still stinging from a Clinton defeat.
One final weakness is the Republican's bread-and-butter complaint about the Democrats: fiscal responsibility. Kaine has tried to raise taxes recently to deal with transportation infrastructure problems, and we can rest assured that they'll use this against him in the general election, portraying him and Obama as typical “tax and spend” liberals.
Overall, Kaine has proven himself to be a true leader committed to solving the problems that he is confronted with; however, his position on the death penalty, guns, abortion, and taxation may cause him to come under fire from both the left and the right. While Kaine is certainly not a bad choice for the VP slot, Obama will need to take these weaknesses under consideration when evaluating him.
And now we turn our attention to Wesley Clark.
Former General Wesley Clark was a liberal darling during the 2004 presidential primaries. His support among the Democratic base has remained strong, and though I'd consider him a long shot for a vice presidential nomination during this cycle, I've had more than enough requests to at least consider the pros and cons of such a candidacy.
Clark's greatest strength has always been his military service. Having never served in an elected office, it is difficult to pin him down on the issues or gauge his support among various demographics, but his resume alone proves very attractive to many Democratic voters. He was Supreme Commander of the NATO forces from 1997-2000. He spearheaded military strategy during the Kosovo war. Needless to say, Clark would have an enormous impact on validating Sen. Obama's foreign policy. Ironically, Clark first found the early Bush administration's isolationist posture unsettling. It is reported that Condoleeza Rice told Clark that the intervention in Kosovo would never have transpired under a Bush administration. Within two years, however, Clark found himself on the other side of the equation, opposing the use of force against Iraq. However, Clark's military strength may no longer prove as essential as it seemed in 2004. The Democratic party is already trusted on most foreign policy issues.
On domestic issues, Clark came out against the Bush tax cuts, claiming that they were ill-suited to stimulating economic growth. To the average American, Clark's words proved prophetic. Clark has consistently supported a woman's right to choose, even supporting partial-birth abortion if the woman's health was at risk. Frankly, I find this to be a dishonest pander as the term "partial-birth" abortion is a misnomer intentional created by the anti-choice lobby to villainize a routine medical procedure. But Clark does believe women deserve access to birth control and reproductive choice. This is rooted in Clark's believe that the separation of church and state is fundamental. He even believes that homosexuals should not be excluded from miltary service.
Regarding civil liberties and foreign policy, Clark opposed the suspension of habeas corpus in the War on Terror, and has called the Iraq War a path to nowhere. As former commander of NATO, his opinions on these issues will carry added weight and support Obama's apparent intention to break from historical U.S. foreign policy, as well as calm concerns over Obama's supposed inexperience in this area (I say supposed merely because it is rare that a presidential candidate has any real experience with foreign policy. I could probably count those that did on one hand). Clark also supports publicly financed elections, so there can be little doubt that his progressive credentials are solid. The main weakness with Clark is the fact that he's never been elected to public office. This makes it difficult to determine his demographic strengths, and prevents him from securing any specific geographic area for the Democratic ticket.
It seems that Clark's main appeal is the fact that he is so beloved by many in the Democratic base. This admiration, however, does not change the fact that Clark was considered a rather poor campaigner during the 2004 election:
More than all that, Democrats said, the collapse of General Clark's campaign, after he roared into politics on a rocket of publicity and good wishes from former President Bill Clinton, is the tale of a candidate who never matched the hopes invested in him by Democrats who latched onto their vision of his candidacy last fall.
<snip>
''Expectations on him were unreasonable because he was such an empty vessel -- and everybody put their hopes and desires into this empty vessel,'' said Matt Bennett, who drove from Washington to Little Rock to work as General Clark's communications director.
Mr. Bennett noted that General Clark came into the race without a legislative record or many known positions, allowing people to see in him what they wanted. ''And when he didn't match their hopes and desires, it was hard for everybody,'' he said, ''It was a recipe for disappointment for a certain part of the population, and a recipe for cynicism on a certain part of the media.''
<snip>
''In the end, I'm still a soldier -- not a politician,'' [Clark] said. ''And folks, this old soldier will not fade away. Now I'm just going to change my uniform and get out in the field and work.''
Even Clark has admitted this basic weakness of his character, and this is a weakness we cannot afford in our vice presidential candidate this time. While Wesley Clark may hold many of the right positions on the issues, the faith some Democrats place in him to be a strong addition to an Obama ticket seems ill-founded. I sincerely doubt that Sen. Obama will even approach Clark concerning a vice presidential slot.
Much like Sen. Jim Webb, Gen. Clark looks better on paper than he performs in the realities of day-to-day campaigning. I believe he may have a role in an Obama administration, but he makes little sense as a vice presidential candidate. A cabinet position would be a far better use of his talents.
Join us tomorrow when we'll profile John Edwards and Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell.







Comments (5)
My comment at The Left Anchor:
'Liberal darling?'
I am shocked to read you to refer to General Clark in this way:
'''In the end, I'm still a soldier -- not a politician,'' [Clark] said. ''And folks, this old soldier will not fade away. Now I'm just going to change my uniform and get out in the field and work.''
Even Clark has admitted this basic weakness of his character, and this is a weakness we cannot afford in our vice presidential candidate this time.'
To refer to a lack of political experience as a 'weakness of his character' is much worse than absurd; it is horrifically untrue. Bush is 'weak of character.' General Clark is extremely strong in character.
Mario Cuomo said, "Wes Clark is a man of whom you can ask a question, and he will look you directly in the eye, and give you the most truthful and complete answer you can imagine. You will know the absolute truth of the statement as well as the thought process behind the answer. You will have no doubt as to the intellect of the speaker and meaning of the answer to this question."
Furthermore, General Clark was the most sought after surrogate to Democratic candidates in the 2006 mid-term elections; he is highly polished, as well as brilliant and charming.
Sounds like you are keen on seeing that the Democrats self-destruct, again.
May 23, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to think that the passage you refer to was pretty clearly not a criticism of Wesley Clark as a man, but rather a criticism as him as a politician. Perhaps you consider politician a dirty word, but the fact is that the vice president is campaigning on behalf of the presidential candidate -- he is a politician. The fact that Clark's own communications director described him as "an empty vessel," the fact that his campaign was largely considered to have been poorly run, the fact Clark himself was roundly criticized as a poor stump speaker, and lastly, the fact that Clark himself has admitted to these basic deficiencies should give anyone pause.
He's a great man, but he's not suited to campaigning, therefore, he makes far more sense in an office that is appointed, not elected.
May 23, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what's wrong with "liberal darling?" He was basically forced into campaigning by the liberal blogosphere, and he's still widely revered there.
May 23, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The liabilities of each of these are
TIM KAINE - Has been governor for less than 2 years. Has no other noteworthy experience to point to. Obama should not run with someone who only exacerbate the concerns that will be raised about O's experience. Take a look at Kaine's resume - it is a big problem.
WESLEY CLARK - Can be fabulous on the stump. The problem is he could make Obama look like he should be at the bottom of the ticket. Watch some YouTube videos of Clark. He might upstage Obama.
I want Obama to win because I want an intelligent outsider. He is not inferior to Clark, but running a 63 year old man with him who comes across as THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF is just not good election psychology.
May 24, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't disagree with you on this point except that I doubt Clark would upstage Obama on the stump. But as I mentioned in my most recent profile of John Edwards, adding a military man to Obama's ticket may make him appear less than secure in his opinions on foreign policy. Given the major reform an Obama administration represents from American foreign policy, it's probably best not to pick a candidate that suggests Obama is unsure of his stature on foreign policy.
May 26, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment