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Vice Presidential Profile: Mark Warner (Fmr. Gov-VA)

OK, so I lied.  Due to overwhelming requests, we're gonna do one more, Mark Warner.  This is the thirteenth entry in our series profiling Barack Obama's most likely candidates for the vice presidential nomination.  Now we've got an even baker's dozen.  You can view the rest of our profiles here.  If you've got a choice that wasn't profiled, send it in; if it looks good, we'll post it.  Since we've added this final profile, we're going to postpone our final analysis until the weekend.  Don't forget to come join us next week as we make our way through the contenders for cabinet positions.  And vote in our poll.  It runs through June 4th.

Mark Warner is the former governor of Virginia.  Virginia's bizarre term limits (a candidate may not serve consecutive terms) forced him from office in 2006 when he was replaced by Democrat Tim Kaine.  He remains overwhelmingly popular in his home state, and is currently on track to pick up the senate seat being vacated by Republican John Warner.  He has the approval of 67% of Virginian voters according to a Washington Post poll from last October.  During his tenure as governor, Mark Warner consistently improved his numbers.  He came into office with a 62 percent approval rating (30 percent disapproval); by the time he left office, he polled at 75 percent approval with only 19 percent disapproval.  As for his current numbers... well, I usually like to go with SUSA numbers, but Rasmussen is the only firm doing consistent polling on Virginia's Senate race.  In their polls, Warner has maintained a 15-20 point lead in the race for nearly a year.  In short: Virginia is Warner country (um, Mark, not John).

According to stalwart political "journalist" Robert Novak, Warner has confided to friends that he's being considered for the VP slot, but has made no mention of whether he'll accept it.  Given that two years ago, Warner was on the short list of candidates being eyed for a 2008 presidential run, which he ruled out in the fall of 2006 when he announced his Senate run, one has to believe that he has some aspiration for the highest office in the country.  Actually, that could be probably be determined simply from the fact that he's a politician.  No one gets into this business because they don't think they'd make a great president.  The question is, which role does Warner believe is better suited to launch a presidential campaign?  He'll be forced to abdicate his Senate seat with four years left in his second term if he chooses to run following a (presumed) Obama administration.  He'll be forced to abdicate it with two years left in his first term in the unlikely event that Obama loses in the fall.

But let's halt the baseless speculation and get down into the issues.  There's a reason Mark Warner is held in high esteem by the country's most Democrat.  He's a consummate politician with a sterling record on many of the top progressive issues.  He upholds a woman's right to choose, and opposed the creation of a 24-hour waiting period for women seeking abortion (which I suppose was introduced because we all know how impulsively women come to the decision to terminate a pregnancy).  As governor, he extended health care to an additional 138,000 Virginia children.  He supports the death penalty, but has admitted to weaknesses in the system.  He's a firm believer in the use of DNA evidence for capital crimes, and worked to extend the 21 day limit for the introduction of new evidence following a trial to insure the integrity of the system.  He passed a tax reform measure which cut income taxes for middle class voters.  In a display of fiscal responsibility, he offset those cuts by raising tax on the upper income brackets, raising the tax on cigarettes, and raising the state sales tax by one percent (while simultaneously lowering the tax on food items by 1.5 percent).  On Iraq, Warner voiced no original opinion that I can find, and he now currently straddles the fence, calling for "a responsible plan - without artificial timelines - to begin to bring our brave military men and women home."  He's also stated that troop withdrawal should absolutely be on the table.  So take from that what you will.

Just like Obama, Mark Warner has focused on broadening the electoral map saying, "We can't win in just 16 blue states."  It is likely that Obama would find an excellent match in the former governor.  Mark Warner has thus far run his Senate campaign on the themes of change and the creation of a post-partisan politics.  He's a strong public speaker, young enough (he's 53) that he'd be an excellent candidate for president following an Obama administration, and with him on the ticket, I don't see any way the Democrats lose Virginia in 2008.  However, there is no candidate to take his place in his Senate run, and this is effectively Warner's only weak point.  Without Warner in that slot, the Democrats will have a much, much harder time securing that Senate seat.  Frankly, we'll probably lose that race.  So, the real question with Mark Warner is: is he more valuable as a vice-president or as a senator?


Comments (19)

This has been a thirteen part series. Recommedations most appreciated. Also, there's a You Tube video of a Mark Warner stump speech available over at the site. It's worth taking a look at. We'll be looking for and posting more candidate stump speeches to our series in the next few days.

Thanks again for dropping by.

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As you know, I have both privately and publicly argued for CA Sen Barbara Boxer. I don't know if she's being considered by Obama, but I think she'd make an excellent pick.

I definitely think there is a terrible shortage of women who have been profiled (Hillary plus two others) in a year when it seems to me (but what do I know) a no-brainer that Obama should run with a woman on the ticket. Surely Boxer and Stabenow are possibles. If carrying Florida is important (which I think Boxer could help in), then perhaps the strongest other candidate in that area, who has also been BOTH a Gov and a Sen, is Bob Graham.

He's more valuable as a Senator. And if he wanted to be VP badly, he shouldn't have run for the Senate seat.

I don't see how they get around this - winning Senate seats is critical since the top priority is kicking Joe Lieberman out of the caucus.

We really only need 1 for that, right? My feeling is that we're already well on the way to pick up more than that.

I'm pretty sure Mark Udall is gonna cream Bob Shaeffer in CO for Allard's open seat.

He'd be more useful as a Senator. When Obama comes into office, it would be nice to have some folks in congress who are both "new" faces ready to change Washington, but also well-liked and with high name-recognition nationally. Warner is exactly the kind of point-guy I'd want in the Senate helping us out not only with our policy agenda, but with actually doing the nitty-gritty of "changing" washington.

If anyone saw the Brooks column in the Times a few days ago - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/27/opinion/27brooks.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin - you'll know what I'm talking about.

OMG, I agree with something David Brooks said. Thanks for the link.

But I think his argument about a VP being there to help govern is an argument for Warner or Webb.

He is a PERFECT fit for Obama. I'm loving this ticket!

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Obama will probably win the Presidency, therefore, a Warner VP slot would be the right calculus, thus, setting up a Warner Presidency in 2016, fulfilling his political aspirations and Warner will be 61 or 62 by then, still young but mature, and experienced.

The possible Obama cabinet: Obama, pres.; Warner, VP.; Sen Biden, Sec of State; Anthony Lake, Nat'l Security; John Edwards, Atty General; Sam Nunn, Sec of Defense; Dr. Howard Dean, Health & Human Svcs; David Axelrod, Chief of Staff; Bill Burton, Comm. Director/Press Secretary; Richardson, Amb to Iran; Liberal stacking of the Supreme Court (3 to 4 vacancies by 2012); Hillary Clinton, unpaid advisor (and possible food taster for Obama at State Dignitary functions).

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Mariann: I like your cabinet, but would prefer a few changes. On the bipartisanship tip, I wouldn't mind Chuck Hagel as SecDef OR keeping Robert Gates in the position. I have stated before that Tom Daschle would be perfect as President Obama's chief of staff. As to liberal stacking of the Supreme Court, I agree wholeheartedly. Eric Holder is a nice start, followed up by Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe. Last, I want Susan Rice and/or Samantha Power somewhere in the Obama Administration. Maybe Power as our UN Ambassador; Rice in the Dick Armitage role behind Biden/Richardson at State?

Thanks, my man. I think this may be the ticket.

Obama/Warner

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Awesome series. Quality analysis.

I'm for Edwards, personally. Him or Richardson.

I gave time on the phone banks for Warner. I did the same for Kaine. I like them both.

I want Warner in the Senate, not his opponent Gov. Charlatan-scum. No car tax charlatan should not be in the Senate.

I prefer Kaine as Obama's VP or Strickland.

This was a wonderful series, Big Blue. Great job. Thanks!

Most welcome. We'll be doing the same thing for cabinet next week. Not as glamorous to be sure, but we'll try to prove the importance of even the less thought of cabinet positions.

Oh, very nice! Oddly enough, I find the cabinet positions more intriguing than VP. (Perhaps because there's already been so much discussions about the VP role that it's worn a little thin.) Given the "team of rivals" hints Obama was dropping earlier, I'd be very surprised not to see HRC in the cabinet somewhere, so since I don't know much out how what those specific cabinet posts actually do, I'm especially looking forward to that part of the analysis.

My thanks, too, Big Blue! I read all the profiles and damn what a great bunch of choices. First I was leaning toward Richardson, then thought Schweitzer looked pretty good, now I agree Warner seems like a great choice. But you know what? I trust Barack Obama to make the right decision. Everything he's done so far has been pretty smart.

I look forward to your cabinet possibilities profiles.

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This analysis, and David's parallel "Outrageously Obvious" one, have pretty well convinced me that the Obama/Warner ticket is a strong, winning combination for the GE. Up to this point, I'll confess, I'd been leaning toward Chris Dodd, but I'm 95% convinced.

Oh, and Keith Olbermann as WH Press Secretary. Period.

And William Jefferson Clinton for Ambassador to Alpha Centuri.

Oh, yes! Keith Olbermann would redefine the way we think of White House Press Secretaries.

Bill to Alpha Centauri? I'd be happy just ship him back to the factory for repairs. He wasn't always so nutty.

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