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"Until the votes are cast,...."
Clintons surrogate Lanny Davis was just on MSNBC and signaled that the Clintons are not going to stop their campaign until the convention. Lanny chose his words carefully and said the nomination would not be over, "until the votes are cast" which, of course, will happen in Denver.
The Rules Committee will meet on Saturday (and probably Sunday) and seat a compromise slate of FL and MI delegates which will give Obama nearly as many delegates as the Clintons. After Tuesday, superdelegates will rush to Obama giving him sufficient "pledges" to secure the nomination, but of course, the votes won't be cast until the convention.
Lanny continues to make the Clintons case that they are the most electable. As soon as the Clintons step aside and at least suspend their campaign (ala Edwards and Romney) the party will solidify around Obama and their electablility argument will vanish in the wind. They won't let this happen.
When you only listen to what the Clintons and their surrogates are saying, their goal is really clear. They are setting up the 'we told you so argument' which only works if Obama loses in November. How else to run as the nominee in 2012?
I know that a lot of people say this and we've all been prone to dismiss it, but listen to the Clintons and their camp. They are going to tank Obama.
Comments (5)
You know, I've had an inkling that the plan was to take this to the convention ever since catching a BBC broadcast a few months ago in which a - purportedly neutral - American observer came on and offered the view that "taking it to the convention" was not so uncommon in the American system and not something to get overly-concerned about.
I subsequently tried, and failed, to locate that broadcast online. As an expat American, whose only broadcast news source at home happens to be the BBC, it was particularly chilling, in the sense that it led me to understand that this was the line that was being propagated by the campaign "under the radar" to the BBC-viewing demographic.
Since then, I've watched the spin unfold online with a sinking feeling in my gut that my initial reaction was spot on. The plan is to take this to the convention. It will only be thwarted if it's rendered totally unpalatable.
May 29, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is an interesting disconnect now within the Clinton campaign. Some in the campaign have offered reassurrance that Hillary will bow out at the appropriate time and fully support and work for Obama. Others suggest the opposite, as pointed out in the post: that she will not give up until the convention.
The candidate herself offers each outlook at different times: sometimes acting conciliatory toward Obama, other times continuing to undercut him by repeatedly suggesting he cannot beat McCain.
This schism is reflected among Democrats, and among posters/commentors on TPM Cafe. Some act complacent, as though this primary will be over soon and the Democrats will be united by mid-June. Others worry that we are in for a long battle through the summer.
There is no doubt that there will be enormous pressure from Democratic officials on Hillary to shut down her campaign by mid-June. IMHO, the fact is that no one knows what she will do at that point. We will just have to wait and see.
May 29, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've gone back and forth on this, but had (again) convinced myself that the Clintons would pack it in by mid-June. But the last few days as the Clintons again seemed to raise the volume and then listening to Lanny Davis today, my heart sank.
I agree completely that the Clintons will be under tremendous pressure to bow out, including pressure from Pelosi, but the Clintons have been masterful at buying time and getting party leaders to given them space, and I think they will push back hard claiming their right to stay in, you know in case Obama gets shot, promising to be positive (until their not and then promising again) taking a low boil campaign into the convention, keeping as many of their supporters in tow as possible, preventing party unity until the convention, and then giving lip service and working to 2012.
May 29, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Listen, they've said it all along. Her only chance for months was either win at an 80% clip or fight it out on the floor!
The one thing that is scary, is how will she continue to get her message out? How will she be secretively campaigning for supers and pledged delegates?
May 29, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are correct that they've been saying it all along, but they have also privately told party leaders otherwise to keep them from working to starve her campaign.
Everyone, media, Pelosi, etc. have been giving the Clintons tremendous deference to keep their campaign alive.
Come June 4, they will just privately try to keep everyone in check by suggesting that they are not going to attack Obama,etc, but they just won't quit and they will continue to make appearances, work the phones, and keep her poll numbers up all the way to to the convention.
The question is how long staff and supporters stick with her. What will likely ultimately do the Clintons in are major defections from the within the campaign, fundraisers, staff, etc.
But another thought that struck me this morning was how invested the Lannys and Ickes are in this as well. They are the people who control the party right now, and if Obama wins they are out in the cold -- so they have their own power interests at stake too.
May 29, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
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