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Ultimately the real opponent is the generic anti-Republican vote. In the end it will be about McCain. If he cannot lock the center, he will lose."

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Dan Balz has his regular "8 Questions About..." feature in today's Washington Post, and the quote that I used as the headline for this post speaks an important truth about this coming election that I haven't heard expressed much. I don't believe the the intraparty squabbling wil hurt the Dem's chances in the general. At the end, we'll all kiss and make up and if Hillary does pull it out, it would be suicidal not to offer Obama the VP spot. I look at the polls that feature match-up's between Obama/McCain and Clinton/ McCain and in my heart I believe that they're meaningless; none of them take into account the "generic anti-Republican vote" that Mike Murphy talks about. Neither Obama nor Hillary will have to run on Bush's coat tails and IMHO, that is all that will count. Here's the part of the column that I pulled the quote from:

Who do Republican leaders see as the tougher opponent -- Obama or Clinton?

8. No official word from the McCain campaign, although his staffers do respond rather quickly whenever Obama says anything critical about their candidate. That may show only that they expect Obama to be the Democratic nominee.


From the world of Republican strategists, there is no consensus. That, obviously, is a shift from two months ago, when almost every one of them would have said Obama. It's been noted here before that Obama's string of problems has caused Republicans to reevaluate him -- and Clinton's resilience has reminded them that, despite her polarizing nature, she is a tough candidate.


"Make no mistake," wrote Todd Harris, a Republican strategist who worked for Fred Thompson's campaign. "Both would be tough." Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster, said Obama would be tougher, in part because he thinks the press will treat him kindly. But he said many Republicans would prefer to run against Obama because they see him as untested.


A Republican familiar with the McCain team put it this way: "I think the McCain campaign sees Obama as the superior campaigner, but they fear HRC more." But another GOP strategist wrote, "I think Obama's more difficult because of the change agent vs. the septuagenarian contrast."


GOP strategist Mike Murphy, a past adviser to and still friend of McCain, offered this perspective: "Now most would say Clinton, but that is a canard. Ultimately the real opponent is the generic anti-Republican vote. In the end it will be about McCain. If he cannot lock the center, he will lose."

And here is a link to the full column:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/05/AR2008050502217.html?sid=ST2008050502633

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