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The Vast Majority of (Pick A Group) Won't Vote For (Pick a Candidate) in November
Those of you obsessing over exit poll data and using them to predict what the general election holds should read this John Ridley piece; and, I think, also quit micro-slicing and dicing the electorate a la Mark Penn.
Placing folks into categories and assigning them monolithic characteristics based upon their income, the color of their collar, whether they live in urban or rural locations, their age, and etc is no different than assigning common characteristics to groups of folks based upon the color of their skin, their gender, or their religion. It's bigotry.
John Ridley's "Spare Mr Your Exit Polls"






Comments (3)
Other than giving pundits something to talk about -- other than "issues" or "policies" or news, heaven forbid -- these polls have nothing to do with what is reality.
You have Pat Buchanan railing about -- dare I say it -- "typical white people" who aren't voting for Obama (or are voting against Obama) because they are voting for Clinton. Hillary claims -- after enumerating every ethnic group EXCEPT African Americans -- that she is winning "Americans".
"Other people call you swing voters, but I call you Americans." I see. Black folks ain't "real" Americans.
If what she said was true, and the "egg-head and African American" (Paul Begala) vote was so insignificant, wouldn't Hillary be winning? Wouldn't she have won every contest? Because I know of no state where black people outnumber white people in raw population. And if her appeal as the "white" candidate was so strong, wouldn't she be bringing back into the fold those so-called "disaffected Reagan Democrats, now better known as "Bush Republicans?" Like in say... Mississippi? Alabama? Georgia? South Carolina? Louisiana? Wouldn't you expect her margins in those states to be blow-outs?
If all it takes to win over white voters is a white candidate, she could have a two-line stump speech: I am 100% white. Vote for me!
Is it remotely possible that voters this season are doing something unheard of in American politics -- actually voting for or against the person -- rather than marginal, pigeon-holing labels? Voting more "I Like Ike!" than "Segregation Now, Segregation Forever!"?
As a member of several groups, I can say confidently today, that the vast majority of those groups will not be voting for the other candidate in the fall. Except for the scenario where they might.
May 10, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly
May 10, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
All the talk on TV sounds like it assumes that those who have voted for Clinton -- all of them, every single one of them -- will either stay home or vote for McCain. That's patently ridiculous. Even though many of the most ardent supporters of Clinton say such things, it's folly to think they all will follow up on it. Those of us who spend time on internet blogs like this one, HuffPo and Kos are seeing things through the perspective of political junkies. Remember that there are many people who like a candidate, but if that candidate loses in the primary, they simply shrug and cast their vote for their party, period. They aren't junkies like us.
We will see plenty of support for the Democratic Party candidate. To buy the arguments of Pat Buchanan and his ilk is self-defeating.
May 10, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
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